Stat Tracking Panthers 2021: 3rd & 4th down conversions

[KB_fan]

I'm not sure if I'll be able to stat track consistently throughout the 2021 season, but I'm going to try to create a few threads for a few stats that seem particularly relevant for the team's success or failure.

One area of concern for the Panthers over the past few seasons has been 3rd down conversion on Offense:

2019: 31.88%  (rank #29)

2020: 38.97% (rank #24)

(Stats via Team Rankings)  

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct?date=2020-02-03

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct?date=2021-02-08

 

So, it was a concern in week 1 to see a very low success rate in 3rd down conversions:  4-14 (28.4%) and 0-1 on 4th down attempts. (24th in the league.... picking right up where we ended the 2020 season in terms of rankings). 

Thankfully in spite of a lot of stalled drives, it was "just the Jets" and we squeaked out a closer than needed win.  But it prompted me to want to start keeping a detailed record of our 3rd (and 4th) down conversion success, looking at the stats each week, including details by drive, distance, game situation, player.

I'll hopefully be posting some tables and brief analysis each week to keep a running track of how we're doing in 3rd down conversions.  See below for data from weeks 1 & 2.

[Puresteel55]

Wow, Houston at 57%! 
 

[KB_fan]

Week 1 versus Jets.  (Game result: WIN 19-14)

Here's a look at the overall data for 3rd & 4th down attempts in week 1.  Not very good. 

Note 1 of the recorded 3rd downs was a kneel to close out the game, so that is excluded from the "attempts" data at the right.

Looking at the data by 3rd down attempt distance, it's easy to see that the biggest problem was attempts on 3rd & long (3rd & 7 or longer).  0 for 5.  Take out those 5 attempts, and the Panthers would have been 4 for 9.  

Here's a look at the drive by drive data for week 1:

 

[KB_fan]

Here's a look at the results by player for week 1.   DJ was 100% in the conversions (2 for 2).  CMC and TMJ each had 1.  But poor TMJ.  He was the most targeted player on 3rd down with 5 attempts. 3 of them were 5+ yards.  He only made 1 conversion (a 3rd & 1).

[KB_fan]

Week 2 data coming within the next 30 minutes or so.  Just have to finish a few things. 

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, KB_fan said:

Here's a look at the results by player for week 1.   DJ was 100% in the conversions (2 for 2).  CMC and TMJ each had 1.  But poor TMJ.  He was the most targeted player on 3rd down with 5 attempts. 3 of them were 5+ yards.  He only made 1 conversion (a 3rd & 1).

TMJ has had the worst luck with his limited opportunities.  He's slipped and fell on 2 of those, Sam missed him on 2? I think and 1 was flat out dropped.  Am I remembering that correctly?

[KB_fan]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

TMJ has had the worst luck with his limited opportunities.  He's slipped and fell on 2 of those, Sam missed him on 2? I think and 1 was flat out dropped.  Am I remembering that correctly?

I think so.  I don't have a recording of the game to go back and watch, but I definitely wouldn't put all the blame on the rookie.

[TrevorLaurenceTime22]

28 minutes ago, Puresteel55 said:

Wow, Houston at 57%! 
 

Not a great stat considering they are out TT now. Also our defense is surrendering just 25%

[KB_fan]

So here's a look at week 2 3rd & 4th down attempts:

Week 2 versus Saints.  Game Result:  Win (27-6)

A fairly similar distribution of attempts by length.  But notably the Panthers improved conversion success at every distance.  And check out those 1st half stats!!!  Sweet.

For what it's worth, the week 2 rate of 53.3% was 5th best in the league for the week.

Here's a side by side comparison of weeks 1 & 2:

Full details for week 2 in just a few more minutes.

Edited September 21, 2021 by KB_fan

[KB_fan]

Full details drive by drive for week 2 3rd & 4th down situations:

Drives 3 & 4 were particularly successful with 5 conversions on 6 attempts, leading to a field goal in Drive 3 (after CMC's 3& 1 attempt from the 1 failed) and the DJ touch down in Drive 4 on 3rd & 2 from the 2.

Even though CMC couldn't punch it in the end zone in Drive 3, making 3 3rd downs on a 15 play drive set the town for offensive dominance in the game.  Just love to see it!

 

Details for individual players for week 2 and the season to date coming up shortlyl

[TrevorLaurenceTime22]

14 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

So here's a look at week 2 3rd & 4th down attempts:

Week 2 versus Saints.  Game Result:  Win (27-6)

A fairly similar distribution of attempts by length.  But notably the Panthers improved conversion success at every distance.  And check out those 1st half stats!!!  Sweet.

For what it's worth, the week 2 rate of 53.3% was 5th best in the league for the week.

Here's a side by side comparison of weeks 1 & 2:

Full details for week 2 in just a few more minutes.

I just want to say I really appreciate your data analytics, Superb as always I use exel all day myself for work and I wouldn't have the patience to do it myself afterwards.

[KB_fan]

It's also interesting - very interesting - that there were no 3rd & longs in the 1st half.  All 6 3rd and longs were in the 2nd half.  I'd have to go back and rewatch the game to see what changed both in terms of the plays Brady was calling and also how the Saints were defending us.

[KB_fan]

1 minute ago, TrevorLaurenceTime22 said:

I just want to say I really appreciate your data analytics, Superb as always I use exel all day myself for work and I wouldn't have the patience to do it myself afterwards.

Thanks!  (I'm out of pie for the day!)  These days I'm using Excel a lot less for work, so this is actually fun for me to have some data to crunch!

[TrevorLaurenceTime22]

7 minutes ago, KB_fan said:

Thanks!  (I'm out of pie for the day!)  These days I'm using Excel a lot less for work, so this is actually fun for me to have some data to crunch!

The challenge is always fun for us data nerds! It certainly helps the mathematically inclined stay level headed. Keep up the great work!