ESPN Analytics' simulation. You're not gonna like it...maybe

[raleigh-panther]

On 9/6/2021 at 7:22 AM, top dawg said:

Ahem. ESPN used some fancy Analytics, their Football Power Index (FPI) to simulate all 285 games 20,000 times, and for some reason they chose to publish this one as their main projection. Now, of course, they qualify it by saying things never go to plan, but yet they put it out there anyway. Honestly, I generally don't even give projections the time of day, but being that I don't have any idea what to expect this season, I said "What the hell." Plus, I think we may get some interesting--even if expected and routine--responses. Anyway, in addition to below, the Bills defeat the Packers in the Super Bowl (salt in wound), and the Jets get not one, but two picks (3 & 4) in the top five. 

Panthers earn the No. 1 overall pick

There was a moment, early in the season, when it looked like the Sam Darnold experiment was going to work out and that offensive coordinator Joe Brady had fixed the mess that Adam Gase (Darnold's former coach in New York) had made. The Carolina Panthers opened the season 4-1, first beating Darnold's old Jets team in Week 1 and then going on to earn wins against the Saints, Texans and Eagles (with a loss to the Cowboys). But those opponents were not that tough, and the 4-1 record was a mirage.

Coach Matt Rhule's team would win just one more game the rest of the way (against the Falcons) and end the season at 5-12 and in a dramatic five-way tie for the NFL's worst record. Carolina needed to lose in its final week to win the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker and earn the No. 1 overall pick -- and it did, as the Bucs beat Carolina 33-7.

Darnold is under contract with the Panthers through the 2022 season, but Carolina would likely be taking serious looks at Spencer Rattler, Sam Howell and the rest of the 2022 class' top QBs come next April if things play out like this.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32133086/simulating-2021-nfl-season-projecting-285-games-biggest-storylines-super-bowl-winner?device=featurephone

Have fun!

 

 

 

You should share this link with Tepper….since he is so big in to analytics and projections 

You know, to help him see next year will be worse 

[joemac]

3 hours ago, Darvinsun said:

Qb is least of the panthers problems. They need linemen and coaching. Just wait it out and get Young the following yr. If you build the line and Sam somehow plays better then it's not as bad.Before they do anything he needs to hire some good NFL caliber coaches. Don't  want to be the jags.

The Jags would likely beat us by a touchdown or more right now. 

[Cdparr7]

On 9/7/2021 at 12:21 AM, Cdparr7 said:

No way we are worse than Eagles, Bengals, Texans and Falcons this year. We won 5 games last year with Teddy Two Gloves, No McCaffrey and Tahir Whitehead. 
 

We are 5th overall pick at worst. We will fall somewhere between 14th-20th.

Well damn. 

[Snake]

5 hours ago, Darvinsun said:

Qb is least of the panthers problems. They need linemen and coaching. Just wait it out and get Young the following yr. If you build the line and Sam somehow plays better then it's not as bad.Before they do anything he needs to hire some good NFL caliber coaches. Don't  want to be the jags.

Sam is broken. He's not getting better. 

[Darvinsun]

18 hours ago, Snake said:

Sam is broken. He's not getting better. 

I know. I don't think he has ever been an NFL starter but I am trying to think like they may be thinking. Play him cause you have to pay him. Line may be better but u still will have to get a new qb in 2023 draft hopefully Young.

[Snake]

26 minutes ago, Darvinsun said:

I know. I don't think he has ever been an NFL starter but I am trying to think like they may be thinking. Play him cause you have to pay him. Line may be better but u still will have to get a new qb in 2023 draft hopefully Young.

Let's hope we have more focus on drafting a QB to go along with some more OLD talent. 

[MHS831]

the article says we beat the Eagles.  we lost by 3

[KSpan]

51 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

the article says we beat the Eagles.  we lost by 3

That was what happened in the simulation, not in real life. Though the simulation was pretty spot-on about starting fast early and then nosediving.