Rhule vs Saleh

[kungfoodude]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Getting the coach hire right is critical no doubt.  Most teams go for someone with NFL experience  I agree.  But they also have more misses due to that very fact.  But nearly all nfl coaches have started at the college level at some point in their career.   

I think too much is made of that "college coach" thing because of the two high profile  college coaches that failed in recent years.  I just think too much is being made of that to try to discount what Rhule has accomplished with this team.  For some it will never be enough. 

It's more than two. Frankly, there has only been one successful example(within the last 25-30 years) and that was Harbaugh. But he was technically an NFL guy before he was a college guy. 

I will put together a little write up on it with some basic scenarios and bounce it off of W/L records, playoff appearances, etc.

I suspect the data is going to show that NFL background does have an impact on overall success.

Edited September 1, 2021 by kungfoodude

[NAS]

16 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I think too much is made of that "college coach" thing because of the two high profile  college coaches that failed in recent years.  I just think too much is being made of that to try to discount what Rhule has accomplished with this team.  For some it will never be enough. 

I think one thing that always differentiated the Rhule hire from other college to NFL coaches is that he didn't come from a top power conference program.  He wasn't a coach who depended on having the best 4 and 5 star recruits like Saban.  He also wasn't about some gimmicky college scheme or no huddle offense like Chip Kelly.

He was hired because of his ability to build a program, manage the locker room, motivate his players and get the most out of each and every one of them. I think for these reasons he will be successful but that success also depends heavily on getting the QB position right.  

I don't think Saleh is guaranteed to succeed because he hasn't dealt with all the aspects of being an NFL head coach before.  For every example of a successful coordinator to head coach hire, there are 3 that flamed out and never got the gig again. I think he will have early success because the bar can't be any lower, but the Jets are a dysfunctional organization and that doesn't bode well. 

Edited September 1, 2021 by NAS

[Jon Snow]

10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

It's more than two. Frankly, there has only been one successful example(within the last 25-30 years) and that was Harbaugh. But he was technically an NFL guy before he was a college guy. 

I will put together a little write up on it with some basic scenarios and bounce it off of W/L records, playoff appearances, etc.

I suspect the data is going to show that NFL background does have an impact on overall success.

I suspect it will too, but it's only due to the overwhelming numbers of hires at the level.  I just think the success rate is not that overwhelming to discount a college background. 

[OldhamA]

1 hour ago, NAS said:

All good arguments, and I do think Saleh will be a good coach but I am surprised more people aren’t higher on Rhule due to his head coaching experience. Saleh may have NFL experience but it’s his first time being the main guy and we shall see if he can sustain a program. 
 

There's a number of fans that have a huge downer on Rhule. Personally I think it's because he's the guy that cut their hero, but maybe I'm projecting...

Winning 5 games last year with that roster (and I was livid we didn't win 6 - we should have beaten the Broncos) was an incredible achievement. People don't seem to appreciate how talent depleted our roster was (thanks Rivera and Hurney!). We're in the stage of building it back up now - and (early days) have crushed back-to-back Drafts to expedite that process - but it's not going to happen overnight. 

I think his attention to detail, focus on culture and teaching are all breaths of fresh air in this franchise. I genuinely see nothing but positives so far from Rhule - even the Bridgewater stuff is a positive. He listened to his mentor (Parcells) and his OC (Brady) and brought in a guy they recommended. Said guy was a mediocre starting NFL QB. That's not the standard Rhule is setting so he moved him on. 

As for who will be better, personally I think Rhule if he doesn't burn himself out trying to rebuild this franchise (he's a programme builder). I'm hopeful that this is the first organisation that he stays there long enough to reap the benefits of what he's sowed. 

[panthers55]

8 hours ago, Tbe said:

Coaching success in the modern era is 100% linked to the QB.

Example: Was Pete Carrol a bad coach the first time around?

Yeah and he coached the Jets. Poor coach at that point and poor team. I was thinking of him and Belicheck when I said this.

[kungfoodude]

9 minutes ago, NAS said:

I think one thing that always differentiated the Rhule hire from other college to NFL coaches is that he didn't come from a top power conference program.  He wasn't a coach who depended on having the best 4 and 5 star recruits like Saban.  He also wasn't about some gimmicky college scheme or no huddle offense like Chip Kelly.

He was hired because of his ability to build a program, manage the locker room, motivate his players and get the most out of each and every one of them. I think for these reasons he will be successful but that success also depends heavily on getting the QB position right.  

I don't think Saleh is guaranteed to succeed because he hasn't dealt with all the aspects of being an NFL head coach before.  For every example of a successful coordinator to head coach hire, there are 3 that flamed out and never got the gig again. I think he will have early success because the bar can't be any lower, but the Jets are a dysfunctional organization and that doesn't bode well. 

Most head coaches are largely managers or figureheads to an extent, college or NFL.

I agree that Rhule's ability to build success at multiple stops is impressive but Nick Saban had/has that track record as well, as does Urban Meyer. Also at programs that weren't powers and powers.

I can break this down to fine statistics about which situation or background has had the most success and in what scenario but at the end of the day, it's about the person and about the situation more than anything else.

For the Jets and Panthers, the situations are obviously very bad. Which is better or worse is likely to be a hindsight discussion because we rarely get to see behind the curtain completely to even know what all the circumstances in the organization are that could potentially torpedo something g promising. Same with the people. We know the backgrounds of both of these successful coaches in their previous stops....that weren't as NFL head coaches. We don't know if they will be able to thrive in their first stop as NFL head coaches or not. 

Maybe in about 3 years and we should have a fairly good idea.

[kungfoodude]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I suspect it will too, but it's only due to the overwhelming numbers of hires at the level.  I just think the success rate is not that overwhelming to discount a college background. 

Well, the data should show something. Whether it is very conclusive will be interesting. It might not be even something that is statistically significant.

 

[kungfoodude]

3 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Yeah and he coached the Jets. Poor coach at that point and poor team. I was thinking of him and Belicheck when I said this.

But he got better in his second stint and was extremely successful in his third stint. The great Bill Belichick was considered a failure in his first NFL head coaching stint.

If you go back to my initial response, that's basically why I said we probably won't know until either they have a few more cracks at it. If that even happens for either of them.

It might not feel great to us as Panthers fans, but if Matt Rhule ends up being a successful NFL Head Coach, it very well may not be with the Carolina Panthers. It would hurt but it wouldn't be rare.

[NAS]

Full transparency - it's not a very impressive list or record but I think Rhule will buck the trend.  For all his faults, Kelly had a winning record just was too stubborn to get out of his own way.  Bill O'Brien was a good coach but a terrible GM.

• Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals 13-18-1
• Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans 52-48
• Chip Kelly, Philadelphia Eagles 26-21
• Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills 15-17
• Greg Schiano, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-21
• Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers 44-19-1
• Bobby Petrino, Atlanta Falcons 3-10
• Nick Saban, Miami Dolphins 15-17
• Steve Spurrier, Washington Football Team 12-20
• Butch Davis, Cleveland Browns 24-35

[frankw]

22 minutes ago, OldhamA said:

Personally I think it's because he's the guy that cut their hero, but maybe I'm projecting...

 

 

This is malarkey. The criticism stems from going from that guy to Teddy two yards and only mustering a single divisional victory. If Rhule brings the wins there will be few if any complaints. But it's his show. Not Cam Newton's not Luke Kuechly's not any former Panther you want to drag into this. The buck stops with the head coach. Ask Ron Rivera. Rhule and Fitt need some success in a big way for '21. This oline better hold up.

Edited September 1, 2021 by frankw

[NAS]

For full transparency, here is the NFL defensive coordinator/assistant to NFL head coach record.  Only 9 out of 26 had winning records, or about 33%.  It's probably worse if you include offensive coaches.  That's at approximately the same rate as college to NFL (3 out of 10).

Wade Phillips (82-64)

Steve Spagnuolo (11-41)

Matt Patricia (13-29-1)

Dan Quinn (43-42)

Rex Ryan (61-66)

Todd Bowles (24-40)

Bill Arnsparger (7-28)

Dom Capers (48-80)

Bill Belichick (274-126)

Buddy Ryan (55-55-1)

Eric Mangini (33-47)

Rod Marinelli (10-38)

Romeo Crennel (32-63)

Jim Schwartz (29-51)

Brian Flores (15-17)

Mike Zimmer (64-47-1)

Mike Vrabel (29-19)

Vic Fangio (12-20)

Ron Rivera (83-72-1)

Steve Wilks (3-13)

Chuck Pagano (53-43)

Mike Pettine (10-22)

Mike Tomlin (145-78-1)

Vance Joseph (11-21)

Marvin Lewis (131-122-3)

Leslie Frazier (21-32-1)

Edited September 1, 2021 by NAS

[CRA]

1st Time NFL Head Coaches hired Directly from College since 2000:

• Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers 5-11
• Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals 13-18-1
• Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans 52-48
• Chip Kelly, Philadelphia Eagles 26-21
• Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills 15-17
• Greg Schiano, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-21
• Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers 44-19-1
• Bobby Petrino, Atlanta Falcons 3-10
• Nick Saban, Miami Dolphins 15-17
• Steve Spurrier, Washington Football Team 12-20
• Butch Davis, Cleveland Browns 24-35

That's why the answer is Saleh.  Not Rhule.  Which isn't hate.  Just NFL history.  Almost all lost.  One team and gone.  And then you look at NFL coordinators turned HC over the last 20 years.....you have guys  like  McVay, McDermott, etc in one grouping that stack against them.  And then you have average guys like Rivera, Arians, etc that after they failed at their first stop...get second chances with new teams.   

and that is a list that contains some of the best college football had to offer.   And Rhule wasn't a Saban, Spurrier, Kelly, etc tier college coach. 

 

[Shotgun]

6 minutes ago, NAS said:

 

Ron Rivera (83-72-1)

 

That fugging tie still pisses me off!

[Moo Daeng]

Some will say Rhule out of being a fan or being optimistic. Some will say Saleh because the way they relate to sports is to hate on everything about their home team.

 

I will just say I don't know and nobody does.