The rarity of the Panthers giving contract extensions to the players they draft

[CarolinaLivin]

The rarity of the Panthers giving contract extensions to the players they draft

When rookies are drafted they automatically receive four-year contracts. During those first four seasons teams have every incentive to keep the player on the roster and develop them into long-term contributors. Rookies enter the league with high upside and low cap hits while front offices don’t want to carry the stigma of drafting prospects who turn into busts.

But let’s look beyond those four-year rookie contracts and evaluate the Panthers ability to draft players then keep them on the roster for five or more seasons. These are the players Carolina drafted, developed, then retained over the long term. When looking at the data, it’s rare to find players the Panthers kept around after their first four seasons.

Of the 53 players the Panthers selected between 2009 and 2016, only 10 were still on Carolina’s roster after the end of their four-year rookie contracts. That’s a 19 percent hit rate for extending players into Year 5.

But of those 10 who survived in Carolina into Year 5, four of them were gone one year later. This means only six of 53 players the Panthers drafted between 2009 and 2016 lasted in Charlotte through six professional seasons: Shaq Thompson, Trai Turner, Kawann Short, Luke Kuechly, Amini Silatolu, and Cam Newton.

Here are all of the players the Panthers drafted between 2009 and 2016 divided between those who were still on Carolina’s roster in Year 5 and those who weren’t. Asterisks denote players who stayed in Carolina for Year 5 but were gone by Year 6. Players in bold weren’t on Carolina’s roster in Year 5 but still went on to have meaningful careers elsewhere.

2016

Five or more - None

Four or less - DT Vernon Butler (1-30), CB James Bradberry (2-62), CB Daryl Worley (3-77), CB Zack Sanchez (5-141), TE Beau Sandland (7-252)

2015

Five or more - LB Shaq Thompson (1-25), OT Daryl Williams* (4-102)

Four or less - WR Devin Funchess (2-41), LB David Mayo (5-169), RB Cameron Artis-Payne (5-174)

2014

Five or more - G Trai Turner (3-92)

Four or less - WR Kelvin Benjamin (1-28), DE Kony Ealy (2-60), S Tre Boston (4-128), DB Bene Benwikere (5-148), RB Tyler Gaffney (6-204). (Note: Tre Boston spent his first three seasons in Carolina, got waived in 2017, then returned in 2019).

2013

Five or more - DT Star Lotulei* (1-14), DT Kawann Short (2-44)

Four or less - OL Edmund Kugbila (4-108), LB AJ Klein (5-148), RB Kenjon Barner (6-182)

2012

Five or more - LB Luke Kuechly (1-9), G Amini Silatolu (2-40)

Four or less - DE Frank Alexander (4-103), WR Joe Adams (4-104), CB Josh Norman (5-143), P Brad Nortman (6-207), DB DJ Campbell (7-216)

2011

Five or more - QB Cam Newton (1-1)

Four or less - DT Terrell McClain (3-65), DT Sione Fua (3-97), DB Brandon Hogan (4-98), WR Kealoha Pilares (5-132), LB Lawrence Wilson (6-166), OL Zachary Williams (6-203), OL Lee Ziemba (7-244)

2010

Five or more - DE Greg Hardy* (6-175)

Four or less - QB Jimmy Clausen (2-48), WR Brandon LaFell (2-78), WR Armanti Edwards (3-89), LB Eric Norwood (4-124), WR David Gettis (6-198), DB Jordan Pugh (6-202), QB Tony Pike (6-204), DB RJ Standord (7-223), DB Robert McClain (7-249)

2009

Five or more - CB Captain Munnerlyn* (7-216)

Four or less - DE Everett Brown (2-43), DB Sherrod Martin (2-59), DT Corvey Irvin (3-93), RB Mike Goodson (4-111), RB Tony Fiametta (4-128), G Duke Robinson (5-163)

Something interesting to note is the round in which the 10 players who stayed more than four years in Carolina were drafted. Four players were first rounders, which is to be expected, but then it gets a bit surprising. Of the remaining six, there were two second round selections (Short and Silatolu), then one in the third (Turner), fourth (Williams), sixth (Hardy), and seventh (Munnerlyn).

Over these eight drafts the Panthers selected 15 players in the second and third rounds and only Short, Silatolu, and Turner survived beyond their rookie contracts. That’s not a great long-term hit rate for players taken in Rounds 2-3 where teams should be able to regularly find solid starters.

In fairness to the front office, they have to work within the realities of the salary cap. All indications are the Panthers front office would have liked to retain guys like James Bradberry and Curtis Samuel but they got better offers elsewhere. Bradberry landed a 3-year, $43.5 million deal with the Giants while Samuel signed with the Washington Football Team for 3-years, $34.5 million. But that’s just the going rate for difference-making talent in the primes of their careers like Bradberry, a 2020 Pro Bowler as a Giant, the versatile Samuel who just produced over 1,000 scrimmage yards and is getting better every year. Smart front offices not only draft long-term talent, they also prudently manage the salary cap to be able to retain that talent over the long term.

Sometimes when rookies are drafted we ask ourselves if they can be Day 1 starters or if they can contribute in their first season. That’s important, no doubt, but so is longevity. Hopefully the Panthers new front office not only drafted players in 2021 who can make an impact this season, but they can keep them in Carolina to do the same in Year 5 and beyond.

Link: https://www.derp/2021/6/1/22461754/the-rarity-of-the-panthers-giving-contract-extensions-to-the-players-they-draft

[LinvilleGorge]

Well, that's what happens when you A) draft poorly and B) let good homegrown talent walk (Norman and Bradberry come to mind immediately)

[CarolinaLivin]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Well, that's what happens when you A) draft poorly and B) let good homegrown talent walk (Norman and Bradberry come to mind immediately)

Yeah hopefully this changes in the Rhule era 

[Captain Morgan]

large part of this problem was cap space.

As bad as Hurney was at drafting after the first round, he was even worse at giving out contracts, which led to our inability to keep players like Josh Norman.

Obviously, when you draft as hideously as Hurney, there's not a lot of guys you want to resign any way.

Now look at all our cap space moving forward, with tons of young talent we'll be able to keep in the future.

So grateful for the new regime.

[onmyown]

But how many were worth actually keeping around? Norman? Bradberry? Norwell? Perhaps they went on to be overpaid.

But then again, overpaid or not, you have to consider where did their money actually go? To players like M Kalil....Shaq took BBs...Gano...fuging Short. Would you rather overpay a young draft pick or sign M Kalil? I think we all know where more money was wasted, overpaid or not.

Not to mention being cap strapped later on when Gettle took over after Hurney went full on idiot in 2010 which was slightly a result of JR being a dumbass ‘businessman’ putting his money first.

Just bad management overall. Bad moves everywhere, constantly. Success often came as a result of luck. But this is what happens when you have Hurney and then fuging rehire him as ‘interim’ for 4 years. This is what happens when you reward old players like Olsen and Kalil with farewell contracts instead of moving on. This is what happens when you are too stubborn to move on from vets and progress (Rivera mindset).

You end up paying the wrong, old players and never have any talent to come in and take their place. Build through the draft my ass, always made me laugh when FO/fans said this. We paid aging plays and let draft picks go. It’s the exact blueprint for having a good season every 3-4 years, then resetting, as the Panthers have had since inception. It’s the recipe of mediocrity and the anti perennial winner.

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by onmyown

[Ready 2 Win]

Hindsight is always 20/20. We were all mad as hell we net Norman leave. He left, got his big payday and  literally fizzled out within 2 years. 

Norwell still stings though!

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, Ready 2 Win said:

Hindsight is always 20/20. We were all mad as hell we net Norman leave. He left, got his big payday and  literally fizzled out within 2 years. 

Norwell still stings though!

We were mad because we had Norman tagged and then rescinded it after any and all good FA options had already signed elsewhere leaving us forced to do exactly what we did - just spam picks at CBs out of desperation. 

[onmyown]

16 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

We were mad because we had Norman tagged and then rescinded it after any and all good FA options had already signed elsewhere leaving us forced to do exactly what we did - just spam picks at CBs out of desperation. 

Not only that but wasn’t it coming off a super bowl team/year? He fit very well with our defense and scheme. 

Hindsight isn’t 20/20 when the huddle breaks down due to these idiot moves (the Armanti edwards/Chandler Bell/Brown/Armini ‘experiments’, extending Short, signing Kalil, drafting Little, signing Jake, letting peppers walk for nothing, having the two highest paid HBs on the same team... lol....etc etc) the moment it happens. Armchair GMs should never be able to predict dumb moves like the huddle has.

Not saying this place is right or wrong all the time, just scary to watch your favorite team make blatant, dumbass moves.

Edited June 1, 2021 by onmyown

[LinvilleGorge]

To be clear, I had no issues with extending Short. My meltdown on Short came when Hurney "restructured" him creating a lot more guaranteed money in his contract. That's a classic Hurney move - restructuring aging vets creating more guaranteed money to get immediate cap relief. Guys Hurney restructured almost always are guys who should be being released instead. He takes a problem and makes it even worse.

[Strawman]

Shaq Thompson signed a 4 year, $54,433,000 contract with the Carolina Panthers, including a $16,000,000 signing bonus, $27,525,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $13,608,250.
 

James Bradberry signed a 3 year, $43,500,000 contract with the New York Giants, including $31,980,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $14,500,000

 

one million difference in annual salary, paid the wrong guy. 

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, Strawman said:

one million difference in annual salary, paid the wrong guy. 

Myself and others said it at the time. Bradberry wasn't just the better football player, but he was a better football player at a considerably more valuable position.

Another Marty hallmark - zero awareness of positional value, hence all the cap space and draft equity he spent over the years on RBs and off the ball LBs while we fielded trash at OT, CB, etc.

[onmyown]

9 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

To be clear, I had no issues with extending Short. My meltdown on Short came when Hurney "restructured" him creating a lot more guaranteed money in his contract. That's a classic Hurney move - restructuring aging vets creating more guaranteed money to get immediate cap relief. Guys Hurney restructured almost always are guys who should be being released instead. He takes a problem and makes it even worse.

Yea I used the wrong wording. I meant restructure.

And isn’t have a problem with the extension at the time either.

Though if we used hindsight in this scenario, we would’ve been better off not never resigning him. We got one good year after his massive contract for 80 million or whatever.

But again I understand resigning him at the time, though I think his decline was evident after his peak in 2015, and 80 million was way way too much when you consider what company he was in ranking salaries over that contract. I believe he was even slated to be the top paid DT in the NFL for 1 or 2 of those years.

Had we never signed him we would’ve been better off. 

[PootieNunu]

Well during that time we had two of the worst GMs in the NFL when it comes to drafting. Hurney was decent in the first round, DG sucked all around. 

DG also decided not to pay Josh Norman, rescinded the tag, and then drafted 2 rookie CBs to start.

It seems we have a real GM this time around.

[rayzor]

If you are drafting and developing  well you shouldn't have to be giving out too many long term deals.

Just keep churning out that talent and keep plenty of room to keep/bring in special talent.

Btw...I'm not saying that's what we have a history of doing. Would like for it to be trilue going forward though.