2021 QB1 Stat Predictions (BleacherReport)

[BrianS]

Actually, in light of a 17 game season, I'd like to see a little more than that.  Maybe 30-33 TD's, 14-15 INT's.

For reference, Kirk Cousins went 35-13 TD/INT last year in 16 games.  Justin Herbert was 31-10.  Tannehill 33-7.  Those are "good" QB numbers.  Probably not top 10, but you can win rings with those guys.  That should be the expectation floor for Darnold.  Anything less is not the guy who will bring us a trophy.

[glenwo2]

42 minutes ago, Cdparr7 said:

Very realistic stats if the OL holds up.

Agreed, though I'd like it if he had single digit INTs but that's just me.

 

15 minutes ago, BrianS said:

Actually, in light of a 17 game season, I'd like to see a little more than that.  Maybe 30-33 TD's, 14-15 INT's.

For reference, Kirk Cousins went 35-13 TD/INT last year in 16 games.  Justin Herbert was 31-10.  Tannehill 33-7.  Those are "good" QB numbers.  Probably not top 10, but you can win rings with those guys.  That should be the expectation floor for Darnold.  Anything less is not the guy who will bring us a trophy.

eh.  Last I heard, Kirk, Justin, and Ryan have brought a total of zero trophies to their respective teams despite their good-to-great numbers. 

But I get what you're saying, Brian.

It's not unreasonable to expect close to those numbers(or even slightly above them) with the team we have for Sam Darnold to get to. 

Anything less would be a disappointment for what we expected, that's for sure.

Hope Sam is up to the task.

[PootieNunu]

I cant really take this list seriously when they have Teddy with 10 tds in 201 attempts. It took him nearly 500 attempts for his 15 tds last season. 

[KatsAzz]

2 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Bingo. I WANT Darnold to be successful, I just don't THINK that he will be.

 

 

I feel sure Sam Darnold will have some growing pains at times, much like any NFL QB that is introduced to a new team and system.

However, let's give him an unbiased chance and not let the fact some members here on the Huddle wanted Fields cloud our views in the evaluation of Darnolds performance.  

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, KatsAzz said:

I feel sure Sam Darnold will have some growing pains at times, much like any NFL QB that is introduced to a new team and system.

However, let's give him an unbiased chance and not let the fact some members here on the Huddle wanted Fields cloud our views in the evaluation of Darnolds performance.  

I don't think there are many ultra Fields fanboys in the Huddle. I think it's more Darnold skeptics and also the crowd that just wanted a shiny new QB versus a Salvation Army QB. 

The allure of the unknown commodity QB gets fan bases year after year during the draft.

[LinvilleGorge]

6 minutes ago, KatsAzz said:

I feel sure Sam Darnold will have some growing pains at times, much like any NFL QB that is introduced to a new team and system.

However, let's give him an unbiased chance and not let the fact some members here on the Huddle wanted Fields cloud our views in the evaluation of Darnolds performance.  

I absolutely wanted Fields but sure, I'll give Darnold a fair shot. Honestly, it doesn't matter what the fans want. The staff and front office are all in on Darnold. He's going to get more than a fair shot here.

[Madwolf]

I would be highly surprised if he puts up that stat line. All of those would represent career highs, by no small margin, for Sam Darnold. 

It would even be surprising for him to match Teddy's yardage from last year.

Sam may turn it around this year, but that is awfully big expectations to put on his shoulders. Putting up those numbers Year 1 outside of the Jets isn't going to be easy for him, nor would it be for anyone that was coming out of a similar situation.

[CarolinaLivin]

I don't think people realize that this prediction has Sam tied for second in INTs

He's tied with Zach Wilson, Matt Ryan, & Jameis Winston

That's why I do think this prediction is possible, it shows improvement in TDs and Pass yards, but also shows mistakes were still made. Which is likely. I expect to see improvement but there's no way he is just going to come into Carolina and light it up. I still expect to see a few head scratchers every now and again from him. 

[BrianS]

37 minutes ago, glenwo2 said:

eh.  Last I heard, Kirk, Justin, and Ryan have brought a total of zero trophies to their respective teams despite their good-to-great numbers. 

But I get what you're saying, Brian.

It's not unreasonable to expect close to those numbers(or even slightly above them) with the team we have for Sam Darnold to get to. 

Anything less would be a disappointment for what we expected, that's for sure.

Hope Sam is up to the task.

Yea, that's really kinda the point right?  Now, to be fair, Herbert is a rookie, and the rings are still there for him.  Tannehill was part of a dysfunctional organization and under the tutelage of Adam Gase, and just recently started showing us that he could be "the guy".  Frankly, Tannehill is the guy we hope Darnold emulates.  Cousins just keeps getting punted around, but those numbers are enough.

Everyone keeps trying to temper / lower expectations with Darnold and I'm not aboard that train.  We should expect him to show up as a good to great QB.  Or a terrible one.  Anything in between just condemns us to middle of the round draft picks and "best of the rest" status.

As a last aside, I will say that the last 20 years have grossly skewed the SB QB conversation off the rails.  Tom Brady has been involved in half the SB's over the last 20 years, and won 7 of them.  That's just crazy.  The dude is 7-3 and the biggest game.  

[kungfoodude]

17 minutes ago, CarolinaLivin said:

I don't think people realize that this prediction has Sam tied for second in INTs

He's tied with Zach Wilson, Matt Ryan, & Jameis Winston

That's why I do think this prediction is possible, it shows improvement in TDs and Pass yards, but also shows mistakes were still made. Which is likely. I expect to see improvement but there's no way he is just going to come into Carolina and light it up. I still expect to see a few head scratchers every now and again from him. 

Well, Sam is a gunslinger. I don't think whether he is a starter or backup in this league that you are going to see him limit his INT'S. It is the price you pay fornthr gunslinger QB.

[CarolinaLivin]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

Well, Sam is a gunslinger. I don't think whether he is a starter or backup in this league that you are going to see him limit his INT'S. It is the price you pay fornthr gunslinger QB.

As a "gunslinger"... no as a QB in general, he has to improve his decision making and ball placement. Essentially, he doesn't throw the most catchable ball. Hopefully that will change with better protection and more talent in the route runner department. 

[NAS]

4 hours ago, CarolinaLivin said:

Projected Stats: 339 completions, 526 attempts, 3,988 yards, 27 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 38 carries, 221 rushing yards, three touchdowns

If he does this, we're a playoff team without a doubt.  Sign me up!

[CarolinaLivin]

1 minute ago, NAS said:

If he does this, we're a playoff team without a doubt.  Sign me up!

I'm curious to see the stats our defense puts up this season. Could sneak into the playoffs for sure. 

[rayzor]

10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Well, Sam is a gunslinger. I don't think whether he is a starter or backup in this league that you are going to see him limit his INT'S. It is the price you pay fornthr gunslinger QB.

Very true. I think he won't be an INT machine, but he also won't be some perfectionist surgical strike guy. He'll gamble to make the big play, and I love it as long as he can make the big plays.