Reasonable expectations for rookie performance

[MHS831]

4 hours ago, rayzor said:

I said right after the draft that we will have 7-8 either starting or playing a major role in what we do and I'm sticking by that.

 

Yeah, after reading KBs post and doing some monkish meditation, I can't pick many players that won't contribute-so I thought I would share my thoughts.  Many of these will be role players, but if you give them a season or two, I see five to seven starters (or key rotational players that get about 50% of snaps). 

• I will put the potential/likely eventual starters (at some point in 2021)  in green. 
• I will put the players that could have key roles by 2022 (starting or rotational) in blue:

1. Horn---duh.  He will start as CB1.  The farther the draft gets behind us, the more I like this pick and understand it.  Watching him at rookie camp, he is an alpha.  Combine him with Chinn, we will have 2.

2. Marshall---a first round talent who will be WR3.  We will use WR3 a lot, and I expect Marshall to be that guy who can beat anyone the defense has for a WR3--like Samuel last year, but I think Marshall is an upgrade because we also got another rookie I like (spoiler alert) Shi Smith.

3.  Christensen---We all want the LT question answered, and it is possible that Christensen is that LT due to his athleticism, but remember, we played Gross at RT his rookie season, Ryan Kalil at G, Moton on short yardage sets.  It takes time, so they do not need to rush the process.  I think he is an eventual all pro LG, and I think (in the back of his head) Rhule sees that too.  Elflein better learn center.  Does that mean LT is still a problem?  Well, sorta but I think we have some options there (Erving, Scott, even Daley and Little) that if we improve both G spots, we will be better up front--and do not forget the significance of Tremble.

4. Tremble---If we can focus on blocking edge rushers on the blind side, and if we are confident our G play is much better, and if we have more people to cover than they have in their defensive backfield, the LT problem is minimized.  On top of that, Tremble will be awesome as a blocking TE, decent as a receiving TE, and awesome on special teams.  He makes us better 3 ways while helping the LT.

5. Hubbard---while not a name we easily remember when reflecting on the draft, a player capable of keeping CMC fresh and off the exercise bike is important.  He is a RB/pass catching back, but if his pass blocking does not improve, his action will be limited.  I was not happy with this pick with better players at need positions on the board.  Rhule, if you wife calls or texts during the draft, ignore her.

6. Nixon---maybe the best value of the draft (don't tell that to 6th round Deonte Brown).  Nixon has the alpha gene as well, the swag, etc. and the tape to prove it.  He is a player we needed--a 3T to play beside Brown and Roy and rotate in with DaQuan Jones.  I love this pick in round 5.  WHAT?  He will make the team and play.

7. K. Taylor---another long CB that looked good at the SR bowl.  His Washington tape is not that impressive, but maybe the coaching and fit was better in Mobile and Rhule saw what he likes.  Do not expect to see him play a lot in 2021; we will have Bouye and Melvin and Pride, and Jackson, and Horn--but Taylor will likely be playing for a spot in 2022.  If he plays well in practice and in limited duty, no need to re-sign or extend a few 1-year or final year contracts.  We are likely to let Melvin go (if he makes the team) and may not re-sign Jackson if Taylor balls out. Bouye is on a 2-year deal, so 2022 would be solid if Taylor steps up.  So be patient with him, but pay attention.

8. D. Brown---a potential starting RG in round 6.  Miller was acceptable last year, but by no means should be shopping for houses in Charlotte.  Brown has proven to be intelligent and is showing self discipline.  He weighed about 370 on Rhule's team at the SR Bowl, and I think that scared teams away--I avoided him in my mocks anyway.  Let's say all we did to upgrade the OL was improve RG and LG and depth--but I think we did more.  Brown could bust, but I do not see it.  I think he catches on and starts by the end of the season.

9. S. Smith---WR4 with some of the best hands you will see.  A steal in the sixth round, dropped because he was on a bad team with a bad QB.  He will fit the possession WR role as a slot, but he can do more.  Special teams ace too.  We have never been this LOADED at WR.  The star of the SR Bowl--and I expect him to have a gradually-increasing role here.  You may see Moore stealing some snaps early on, but when the light comes on for Smith, Moore drops to WR5.

10.  Thomas Fletcher---I do not evaluate hikers, but there could be a method to this madness none of us has considered.  Have you watched the kickers/punters in practice?  They share a long snapper.  Maybe stashing Fletcher on the PS would give them 2 long-snappers and allow the punter and kicker (Slye) to get more work at practice.  I dunno.  I just can't see us letting JJ go.  JJ is on a one-year deal. 

11.  Hoskins-- Probably a PS DT to develop and plug in if we have an injury, assuming he makes it.  He is at 280, so maybe his role is to be that developmental, run stuffing end or that pass rushing 3T.  I dunno what the plan is for him.

UNDRAFTED Free Agents:  We have 2 that could make the team and contribute.

1.  Moore:  I know Moore is a massive G, but he seems smart, and he would be an ideal candidate to develop for a season behind Paradis to take over at C.  Elflein could play there, but his stint at C in the past was not great, and I doubt they really want Erving there.  Moore could be the starting center in 2022.  What a steal if that happens---or he could be the LG if Christensen stays at LT. 

2. Fisher:  Fisher is a 2-down, run-stuffing thumper who is likely to remain a backup and special teamer, but we really do not have that player in the middle that makes RBs switch to soccer.  Perryman has been hurt a lot, and it is a long season.  Fisher is limited, but what he can do, he does well.  Think AJ Klein-stuffs C gap to C gap, but when you need to cover or go sideline to sideline, he stuffs C gap to C gap.

 

 

 

 

[onmyown]

With the amount of drafts picks Rhule likes, his style is just to weed them out. Unlike past regime who would gives years and years to show something I have no doubt Rhule will be quick to cut slackers and inadequates. Anyone that doesn’t work out will be an accumulated pick next year via Fit. The whole ‘the more players/picks you have to choose from the better’ mantra Rhule has.

Which is a good and bad thing. It’s good because you’re not wasting time, if you’re good at it, it will be very effective in a very short amount of time.

The bad, if you keep on passing up superior talent to feeding your ego thinking 2-3 picks turning out to be duds will be better than picking a better possible stud it’s going to get old real quick.

Only time will tell.

Edited May 19, 2021 by onmyown

[rayzor]

8 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Yeah, after reading KBs post and doing some monkish meditation, I can't pick many players that won't contribute-so I thought I would share my thoughts.  Many of these will be role players, but if you give them a season or two, I see five to seven starters (or key rotational players that get about 50% of snaps). 

• I will put the potential/likely eventual starters (at some point in 2021)  in green. 
• I will put the players that could have key roles by 2022 (starting or rotational) in blue:

1. Horn---duh.  He will start as CB1.  The farther the draft gets behind us, the more I like this pick and understand it.  Watching him at rookie camp, he is an alpha.  Combine him with Chinn, we will have 2.

2. Marshall---a first round talent who will be WR3.  We will use WR3 a lot, and I expect Marshall to be that guy who can beat anyone the defense has for a WR3--like Samuel last year, but I think Marshall is an upgrade because we also got another rookie I like (spoiler alert) Shi Smith.

3.  Christensen---We all want the LT question answered, and it is possible that Christensen is that LT due to his athleticism, but remember, we played Gross at RT his rookie season, Ryan Kalil at G, Moton on short yardage sets.  It takes time, so they do not need to rush the process.  I think he is an eventual all pro LG, and I think (in the back of his head) Rhule sees that too.  Elflein better learn center.  Does that mean LT is still a problem?  Well, sorta but I think we have some options there (Erving, Scott, even Daley and Little) that if we improve both G spots, we will be better up front--and do not forget the significance of Tremble.

4. Tremble---If we can focus on blocking edge rushers on the blind side, and if we are confident our G play is much better, and if we have more people to cover than they have in their defensive backfield, the LT problem is minimized.  On top of that, Tremble will be awesome as a blocking TE, decent as a receiving TE, and awesome on special teams.  He makes us better 3 ways while helping the LT.

5. Hubbard---while not a name we easily remember when reflecting on the draft, a player capable of keeping CMC fresh and off the exercise bike is important.  He is a RB/pass catching back, but if his pass blocking does not improve, his action will be limited.  I was not happy with this pick with better players at need positions on the board.  Rhule, if you wife calls or texts during the draft, ignore her.

6. Nixon---maybe the best value of the draft (don't tell that to 6th round Deonte Brown).  Nixon has the alpha gene as well, the swag, etc. and the tape to prove it.  He is a player we needed--a 3T to play beside Brown and Roy and rotate in with DaQuan Jones.  I love this pick in round 5.  WHAT?  He will make the team and play.

7. K. Taylor---another long CB that looked good at the SR bowl.  His Washington tape is not that impressive, but maybe the coaching and fit was better in Mobile and Rhule saw what he likes.  Do not expect to see him play a lot in 2021; we will have Bouye and Melvin and Pride, and Jackson, and Horn--but Taylor will likely be playing for a spot in 2022.  If he plays well in practice and in limited duty, no need to re-sign or extend a few 1-year or final year contracts.  We are likely to let Melvin go (if he makes the team) and may not re-sign Jackson if Taylor balls out. Bouye is on a 2-year deal, so 2022 would be solid if Taylor steps up.  So be patient with him, but pay attention.

8. D. Brown---a potential starting RG in round 6.  Miller was acceptable last year, but by no means should be shopping for houses in Charlotte.  Brown has proven to be intelligent and is showing self discipline.  He weighed about 370 on Rhule's team at the SR Bowl, and I think that scared teams away--I avoided him in my mocks anyway.  Let's say all we did to upgrade the OL was improve RG and LG and depth--but I think we did more.  Brown could bust, but I do not see it.  I think he catches on and starts by the end of the season.

9. S. Smith---WR4 with some of the best hands you will see.  A steal in the sixth round, dropped because he was on a bad team with a bad QB.  He will fit the possession WR role as a slot, but he can do more.  Special teams ace too.  We have never been this LOADED at WR.  The star of the SR Bowl--and I expect him to have a gradually-increasing role here.  You may see Moore stealing some snaps early on, but when the light comes on for Smith, Moore drops to WR5.

10.  Thomas Fletcher---I do not evaluate hikers, but there could be a method to this madness none of us has considered.  Have you watched the kickers/punters in practice?  They share a long snapper.  Maybe stashing Fletcher on the PS would give them 2 long-snappers and allow the punter and kicker (Slye) to get more work at practice.  I dunno.  I just can't see us letting JJ go.  JJ is on a one-year deal. 

11.  Hoskins-- Probably a PS DT to develop and plug in if we have an injury, assuming he makes it.  He is at 280, so maybe his role is to be that developmental, run stuffing end or that pass rushing 3T.  I dunno what the plan is for him.

UNDRAFTED Free Agents:  We have 2 that could make the team and contribute.

1.  Moore:  I know Moore is a massive G, but he seems smart, and he would be an ideal candidate to develop for a season behind Paradis to take over at C.  Elflein could play there, but his stint at C in the past was not great, and I doubt they really want Erving there.  Moore could be the starting center in 2022.  What a steal if that happens---or he could be the LG if Christensen stays at LT. 

2. Fisher:  Fisher is a 2-down, run-stuffing thumper who is likely to remain a backup and special teamer, but we really do not have that player in the middle that makes RBs switch to soccer.  Perryman has been hurt a lot, and it is a long season.  Fisher is limited, but what he can do, he does well.  Think AJ Klein-stuffs C gap to C gap, but when you need to cover or go sideline to sideline, he stuffs C gap to C gap.

total agreement. every single one of those guys, like you have pointed out, you can make a great case for.

We have needs, they have the tools to meet those needs. we got some serious value throughout the draft.

Not all of them will work out, but if we can get even half to be solid contributors for us.

I would add Spencer Brown to the list as well. He could end up being the next Nick Goings.

[BlitzMonster]

44 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I think he is an eventual all pro LG, and I think (in the back of his head) Rhule sees that too.

I see Christensen heading in that direction as well. 

He might be a decent LT with some limitations due to his shorter arms.   However arm length is less of an issue inside at LG where Christensen's elite athleticism for his position could be a real asset.   A huge, agile man that can consistently pull & trap would be a great boost to the Panthers running game.  

[pantherclaw]

Realistically, we'll only be starting Horn on the first game of the season. 

Our second round pick will have to show a lot to be trusted to start over our veterans. While moving Moore to the slot would immediately give the rookie the start, I just don't see that happening. 

I love Christiansen, but he has an uphill battle to be a week one starter. I would.l9ve to see it though. 

Everybody after that has a severe up hill batter. 

 

Who knows by mid-season.  So much can change game to game. 

 

[Basbear]

7 hours ago, KB_fan said:

I know last night I posted something about expecting about 5 - 6 of our new rookies to be contributing on a meaningful level this season.

Based on this i probably need to temper my expectations to 2-3.  Though, if I recall correctly AV metric is pretty heavily weighted to pro-bowl / all-pro votes. Rookies can perhaps still make a big contribution in ways not likely to show up in AV.  I'll try to dig deeper tonight... 

Form my knowledge, 2 legit starters and one top back(swing tackle. #2 RB, #3 WR, 3rd and long pass rusher)/ST ace ....thats a good draft and they are rare. If you look down most rosters, the "old" guys are former 1st rounders and maybe one other is same age. Not to blast on Herniay, but most of his drafts after the 4th year, all thats left was the 1st rounder. Truly not many get a good 2nd contract, many either get one year deals or never make it to free agency. Getting 6-9 legit players would be one of the all-time greatest drafts in NFL history.  

[BlitzMonster]

38 minutes ago, pantherclaw said:

Realistically, we'll only be starting Horn on the first game of the season. 

Agreed.

Horn starts day one. 

The only other 2021 starter I'd bet on would be Christensen at LT or LG after the bye week

Several of the other draft picks will rotate in often during 2021 ( Marshall, Tremble, Hubbard, Nixon).  And maybe Deonte Brown gets some work in the jumbo OL packages.  

 

I think the real benefit for this draft class will be seen in 2022 when a few veteran contracts will end and some  of these rotation rookies will be able to challenge for starting roles.  

Edited May 19, 2021 by BlitzMonster

[Basbear]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Yeah, after reading KBs post and doing some monkish meditation, I can't pick many players that won't contribute-so I thought I would share my thoughts.  Many of these will be role players, but if you give them a season or two, I see five to seven starters (or key rotational players that get about 50% of snaps). 

• I will put the potential/likely eventual starters (at some point in 2021)  in green. 
• I will put the players that could have key roles by 2022 (starting or rotational) in blue:

1. Horn---duh.  He will start as CB1.  The farther the draft gets behind us, the more I like this pick and understand it.  Watching him at rookie camp, he is an alpha.  Combine him with Chinn, we will have 2.

2. Marshall---a first round talent who will be WR3.  We will use WR3 a lot, and I expect Marshall to be that guy who can beat anyone the defense has for a WR3--like Samuel last year, but I think Marshall is an upgrade because we also got another rookie I like (spoiler alert) Shi Smith.

3.  Christensen---We all want the LT question answered, and it is possible that Christensen is that LT due to his athleticism, but remember, we played Gross at RT his rookie season, Ryan Kalil at G, Moton on short yardage sets.  It takes time, so they do not need to rush the process.  I think he is an eventual all pro LG, and I think (in the back of his head) Rhule sees that too.  Elflein better learn center.  Does that mean LT is still a problem?  Well, sorta but I think we have some options there (Erving, Scott, even Daley and Little) that if we improve both G spots, we will be better up front--and do not forget the significance of Tremble.

4. Tremble---If we can focus on blocking edge rushers on the blind side, and if we are confident our G play is much better, and if we have more people to cover than they have in their defensive backfield, the LT problem is minimized.  On top of that, Tremble will be awesome as a blocking TE, decent as a receiving TE, and awesome on special teams.  He makes us better 3 ways while helping the LT.

5. Hubbard---while not a name we easily remember when reflecting on the draft, a player capable of keeping CMC fresh and off the exercise bike is important.  He is a RB/pass catching back, but if his pass blocking does not improve, his action will be limited.  I was not happy with this pick with better players at need positions on the board.  Rhule, if you wife calls or texts during the draft, ignore her.

6. Nixon---maybe the best value of the draft (don't tell that to 6th round Deonte Brown).  Nixon has the alpha gene as well, the swag, etc. and the tape to prove it.  He is a player we needed--a 3T to play beside Brown and Roy and rotate in with DaQuan Jones.  I love this pick in round 5.  WHAT?  He will make the team and play.

7. K. Taylor---another long CB that looked good at the SR bowl.  His Washington tape is not that impressive, but maybe the coaching and fit was better in Mobile and Rhule saw what he likes.  Do not expect to see him play a lot in 2021; we will have Bouye and Melvin and Pride, and Jackson, and Horn--but Taylor will likely be playing for a spot in 2022.  If he plays well in practice and in limited duty, no need to re-sign or extend a few 1-year or final year contracts.  We are likely to let Melvin go (if he makes the team) and may not re-sign Jackson if Taylor balls out. Bouye is on a 2-year deal, so 2022 would be solid if Taylor steps up.  So be patient with him, but pay attention.

8. D. Brown---a potential starting RG in round 6.  Miller was acceptable last year, but by no means should be shopping for houses in Charlotte.  Brown has proven to be intelligent and is showing self discipline.  He weighed about 370 on Rhule's team at the SR Bowl, and I think that scared teams away--I avoided him in my mocks anyway.  Let's say all we did to upgrade the OL was improve RG and LG and depth--but I think we did more.  Brown could bust, but I do not see it.  I think he catches on and starts by the end of the season.

9. S. Smith---WR4 with some of the best hands you will see.  A steal in the sixth round, dropped because he was on a bad team with a bad QB.  He will fit the possession WR role as a slot, but he can do more.  Special teams ace too.  We have never been this LOADED at WR.  The star of the SR Bowl--and I expect him to have a gradually-increasing role here.  You may see Moore stealing some snaps early on, but when the light comes on for Smith, Moore drops to WR5.

10.  Thomas Fletcher---I do not evaluate hikers, but there could be a method to this madness none of us has considered.  Have you watched the kickers/punters in practice?  They share a long snapper.  Maybe stashing Fletcher on the PS would give them 2 long-snappers and allow the punter and kicker (Slye) to get more work at practice.  I dunno.  I just can't see us letting JJ go.  JJ is on a one-year deal. 

11.  Hoskins-- Probably a PS DT to develop and plug in if we have an injury, assuming he makes it.  He is at 280, so maybe his role is to be that developmental, run stuffing end or that pass rushing 3T.  I dunno what the plan is for him.

UNDRAFTED Free Agents:  We have 2 that could make the team and contribute.

1.  Moore:  I know Moore is a massive G, but he seems smart, and he would be an ideal candidate to develop for a season behind Paradis to take over at C.  Elflein could play there, but his stint at C in the past was not great, and I doubt they really want Erving there.  Moore could be the starting center in 2022.  What a steal if that happens---or he could be the LG if Christensen stays at LT. 

2. Fisher:  Fisher is a 2-down, run-stuffing thumper who is likely to remain a backup and special teamer, but we really do not have that player in the middle that makes RBs switch to soccer.  Perryman has been hurt a lot, and it is a long season.  Fisher is limited, but what he can do, he does well.  Think AJ Klein-stuffs C gap to C gap, but when you need to cover or go sideline to sideline, he stuffs C gap to C gap.

 

 

 

 

STOP!!!........ I will hold firm... I Know BETTER DAM IT!!!!!

[CRA]

I think in 2021 we see Horn start and we see some Marshall worked in to a small but legit role. 

that’s about all I expect in 2021.   Maybe Chubba earns a rep here or there.  Maybe the long snapper has a shot  

Everyone else is going to need some time to develop.  I don’t buy trying to salvage Darnold and then throwing Christisen, Cornbread, Tremble out there on the OL as rookies.   We might see them at some point but I don’t expect their roles to be much as rookies. 

 

[Khyber53]

11 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

 

Let's just wait and see what it becomes. No overt judgment on it either way. Let it pan out.

Exactly! I'm optimistic, but I realize that is just my nature. If I sit and actually think about last season, the team needs I thought were important, offseason pickups, the way the draft played out for us and the schedule of games ahead of us... then I have to say this is going to be very much a "prove it" year for the coaching and management staff, not to mention the players.

Still, I have hope it will work out. But there's nothing on paper right now that shows it definitely will be better.

[BlitzMonster]

2 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

But there's nothing on paper right now that shows it definitely will be better.

This year there's more depth and more competition for playing time.   That's always a plus.  

[kungfoodude]

4 minutes ago, Khyber53 said:

Exactly! I'm optimistic, but I realize that is just my nature. If I sit and actually think about last season, the team needs I thought were important, offseason pickups, the way the draft played out for us and the schedule of games ahead of us... then I have to say this is going to be very much a "prove it" year for the coaching and management staff, not to mention the players.

Still, I have hope it will work out. But there's nothing on paper right now that shows it definitely will be better.

Agreed. I didn't particularly like all the trading down because I felt like we passed up on long term starting caliber OL in the 2nd and 3rd rounds for a bunch of "cross our fingers and hope this works" dart board throws. I get the logic behind it but it isn't what I prefer. Of course I disagreed with the first round pick because I value QB and LT over CB, although I believe now that Horn is going to be an elite player too. 

Overall, I am optimistic that we finally addressed some of our issues with depth on the roster. Perhaps next draft/offseason we can address some of the holes that we have in the starting lineup. 

[OldhamA]

14 hours ago, Khyber53 said:

I'm going to be holding my breath a bit when it comes to saying we had a killer draft class. Our first year GM and Second-year Former College HC passed on some talents in the first round and then spent the whole draft trading back and back and back.

It may work, it might work a bit, it might go down as the headscratchingest draft in recent memory or it could be an epic bust that we're cussing for years. We just honestly don't know.

All of these guys are rookies coming out of the draft -- how they perform in the NFL is admittedly a crap shoot. We have no past history of draft picks for Fitterer to really see the trend. We have a HC trying to build a team his way, but he only turned out a 5-11 record last season while the guy he replaced took over a demonstrably worse team and rode it to the playoffs while battling cancer. 

Not saying there were bad choices throughout, but honestly, they are going to need to prove something pretty quickly to change my skepticism.

 

I wobbled with the first bold, and you lost me with the second one. 

The WTFs finished with a 7-9 record. Rivera backing his way into the Playoffs is not to be commended - nor was it when he did it here. They've got some absolute ballers on that WTFs team - that Dline is nasty.

That said, they're worse than us (as evidenced by us defeating them last season), but they played in a pathetic division. Unlike the murderer's row that we find ourselves in. 

[d-dave]

The Huddle:  the first poor play any rookie makes will cause them to be called a bust forever.

Personally, I just want to see guys who try hard.  If we can get that far, that will be an improvement.

Will the trade down draft be worth it?  We'll see...