The Ohio State / Darnold QB Challenge

[ForJimmy]

Hey the guy we signed came from a university full of high round busts, BUT look we found a university that’s worse! Problem solved...

[ForJimmy]

11 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Only Fields, Haskins, and Schlichter were 1st round picks.

So one hasn’t played a snap, and one has a smaller sample size than Darnold who we are giving a pass.... got it.

[ForJimmy]

53 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

The point here is not to discredit Fields--I wanted him before we signed Darnold--I wanted a few of the rookie QBs .  But to act like an OHIO ST QB is the savior to turn around the program is like expecting Trevor Noah to say something unpredictably funny.

  It is to show people a few things--1) An average QB in a good system can look great; 2) a good QB in a bad system can look bad.  Some have been crying about passing on Fields as if he is a sure fire pro bowler--where if that happens, it would certainly defy about 100 years of Buckeye tradition and trashing Darnold because he did not play well in a bad system with a bad coach. 

But then to defend the OSU qbs, I get, "Well there were many coaches and many systems..."  So they matter in college, but not in the NFL?

Just an interesting look at the draft--there was risk, but nobody can say that drafting Fields would have been better than trading for Darnold.  Risk on both sides.

Definitely risks on both sides. I would think a rookie is more of an unknown, but what we do know of Darnold isn’t very good. I am looking forward to seeing what our staff can do with a young QB with a good arm.

I don’t think anyone is defending these past OSU QBs, just stating it’s a dumb reason to pass on a talented player. Saying player X is checking all the right boxes, but he played for a school that over decades of different personal and staff hasn’t produced an elite prospect in the (2 first rounders) previous players that were drafted from there seems like a bit of a reach...

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, ForJimmy said:

So one hasn’t played a snap, and one has a smaller sample size than Darnold who we are giving a pass.... got it.

Not giving a pass, just giving an opportunity. Most of the folks who make a living at evaluating talent say he would have been #2 in this draft behind Lawrence. If our coaches  can turn him around, we're golden. If not we have 2 years to find a replacement. The only difference is we would have 4 years to replace Fields.

[ForJimmy]

22 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Not giving a pass, just giving an opportunity. Most of the folks who make a living at evaluating talent say he would have been #2 in this draft behind Lawrence. If our coaches  can turn him around, we're golden. If not we have 2 years to find a replacement. The only difference is we would have 4 years to replace Fields.

I’m ok with giving him a chance. I think there is ability there. Just stating we didn’t pass on Fields because of his schools history of QBs. I would imagine a lot went more into it than that trivial point.

[Varking]

The last LSU first round QB before Joe Burrow was J. Russel. Arguably the biggest bust ever at the position. There hasn’t been any other great LSU QBs I can recall. But Burrow looks good. 
 

Oregon has produced a chunk of first round busts. Justin Herbert looks good. 
 

Tom Brady is the goat. Since him though Michigan QBs have sucked. 
 

Darnold could be bad or he could be good. If you ask me who I would rather have, Darnold or Fields I’d take Fields in a heartbeat. Darnold+Horn vs Fields? That’s a harder argument. 
 

If we are trying to defend our current QB by pointing out other QBs that suck… then maybe we don’t have a real QB. And I say that as a Darnold supporter. This probably wasn’t the best way to show we should have faith in Sam. 

[MHS831]

 

So yes, both programs could do better--but to equate them for the sake of argument is self-serving and wrong.  Like comparing a firecracker to hand grenade and saying, "They both blew up."   Here is the stat you need to defend: 

In the past 39 years (since 1982 with first round selection Art Schichter) there have been 10 Ohio State Quarterbacks drafted into the NFL--of those, only 1 (Kent Graham, drafted in the eighth round) has more than 4 career NFL victories.  Mike Tomsczak was not drafted (1985), and he has more wins than all of the other 10 drafted OSU quarterbacks combined.

And of all 11 OSU QBs who played QB in the NFL since 1982, they accumulated a total of 79 wins.  That means in the past 39 years, Ohio State QBs average 2 wins among all 32 teams per season---thanks to undrafted Mike Tomzczak--who contributed half of them--the rest?  1 game per season.  Carson Palmer alone had 92 wins.  Matt Cassell--a backup at USC--had 36 NFL wins--one less than all 10 OSU drafted QBs over that period of time.  Rodney Peete?  45 wins. 

So I can take the top 3 USC QBs since 1986 and get 173 NFL victories--nearly 100 more NFL victories in the NFL in that span of time.

So they are not really close.

And remarkably, there is this:

https://www.nfl.com/news/pipelines-to-the-pros-quarterbacks

Edited May 17, 2021 by MHS831

[Varking]

24 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

I’m ok with giving him a chance. I think there is ability there. Just stating we didn’t pass on Fields because of his schools history of QBs. I would imagine a lot went more into it than that trivial point.

Didn’t Rhule state they looked at it like Darnold+Horn could be better than Justin Fields and no Horn?

[ForJimmy]

It’s not really relevant and has been debunked with Pat Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Watson, Russ Wilson, Aaron Rodgers all came from schools that hadn’t had success with players becoming legit NFL QBs. Researching for stats/intrigue is fun, but to using it to pass on a potential prospect would be silly. It’s like saying we should pass on Sam Howell because Mitch was a bust, Ronald Curry had to become a WR and not many UNC QBs have been able to have success in the NFL.

[ForJimmy]

5 minutes ago, Varking said:

Didn’t Rhule state they looked at it like Darnold+Horn could be better than Justin Fields and no Horn?

Which makes complete sense. Fields could have been even slightly higher, but Darnold comes with what we believe is an elite CB prospect. He even said (I know I’m going to butcher this up) we look at athletic ability/potential over stats to some degree when talking about Tremble.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

Let's face it, if you come from one of the larger universities, you are one of the best QBs of your generation.  If you find yourself drafted by the NFL you are among the best of the best. 

What happens to you after that is largely based upon your support network, coaches and the players that surround you.  

We've seen this many, many times with retreads like Darryl Lamonica, Brett Farve, Jim Plunkett, Steve Young, even our own Jake Delhomme.  All these guys were either considered failures or languished on the bench until traded.  Only then, under the right circumstances, did they blossom as QBs and lead their teams to multiple championships.

[Wes21]

4 hours ago, Moo Daeng said:

Joe Burrow since this is about curse by association. Or is Fields curse lessened by having started at Georgia?

This is confusing

I like to bring this up to see the tap dancing.

[CRA]

7 minutes ago, Trainwreck said:

How about Clemson? Take a look at their quarterback list before Watson. Now, Trevor just became the #1 overall pick and DJ will likely be a pretty high 1st round pick in the future. 

Taj Boyd.  Clipboard Jesus!  Woody Dantzler. 

[MHS831]

39 years of QBs from Ohio State University drafted to play in the NFL. 37 TOTAL NFL wins. 

The best QB they produced on the NFL level (Tomczak) was a 55% passer in college with more interceptions than TDs.  That QB, undrafted, managed to get more NFL wins than all other Ohio St. QBs drafted during the past 39 years.

This is the same school that caused Burrow to transfer to LSU--and in 10 games with the Bengals he won 2 games--if he had not been hurt and was QB when the Bengals won all four games in 2020, he would have tied the CAREER TOTALS for the top drafted QBs at Ohio St since 1982.  THAT is how good OSU QBs have been.

Let that sink in. 

Not to say that Fields is not going to succeed, they are due. 

Darnold goes to the worst football team in the NFL, a program who has not had a successful QB since Namath, if you dont count Richard Todd, and I dont.  Now you are going back 50 years.  And he sucks, but Fields is the messiah? 

Not sure I follow that logic.