Rookie Camp - Day Two

[Moo Daeng]

10 hours ago, stbugs said:

If that happens, it's a fantastic draft, but you are "counting" on a 5th rounder, three 6th rounders, an UDFA and two 3rd rounders. Even though last year's class was terrific, how many of them really contributed? Brown and Chinn. Roy got snaps mainly because Short went down. Pride was well, less than stellar and YGM played about 1/3 of the snaps, probably because Weatherly just plain sucked. Those 3 "contributed" but were JAG/JAG- level guys and got time because we had lost so many players. All that and it was still a really solid draft class, but the 3 top contributors were 1st and 2nd round picks, not day 3 guys.

We just need to temper our expectations. Even with trading down, 5 of starters/key contributors is a ridiculous draft, not what's expected.

Expecting 5 or 6 starters is likely not realistic. It's also important to remember that building a team isn't only about one what they do their rookie year and team success isn't only about starters.

Players take time to develop. Smith wasn't Smith for about 3 years. Thomas Davis wasn't Thomas Davis for more than that. Olsen could have been labeled a JAG until about his 6th season. 

Attempting to make any point about Pride or YGM or any player after one year doesn't seem to come from any sensible understanding of how this actually works in reality.

Maybe if you are only thinking about this as a fantasy owner on a single year basis vs following a team over time?

Edited May 18, 2021 by Moo Daeng

[KB_fan]

Definitely appreciate those encouraging us to have reasonable expectations of this draft class.

It is way too easy to get over-hyped about rookies this time of year, and I definitely can fall victim to that.

Along the same lines of thought, there was a good article in the Athletic today reviewing rookies contributions (based on Pro Football Reference AV metric) over the past 5 seasons.  19.1% of rookies played meaningful roles as defined by Approximate Value of 5 or higher.

So expecting 2-3 of the newbies to make a meaningful contribution is maybe much more realistic than the 5-6 guys I mentioned last night! (Though I do wonder whether rookie contribution numbers vary from rebuilding to veteran team. We have a lot of holes rookies could help fill. The Bucs or KC, not so much...)

I've started a new topic to discuss the article, but here's the link.

https://theathletic.com/2580954/2021/05/18/what-do-the-numbers-tell-us-about-reasonable-expectations-for-nfl-rookies?source=user-shared-article

 

Edited May 18, 2021 by KB_fan

[Basbear]

19 hours ago, Mogwai89 said:

I doubt he will be Kittle but isn't it weird to down play him being a third round pick when the 49ers got Kittle in the 5th? 

Nah, but you and I know thats not the reason for Kittle comparison... I know kittle was injured last year, but he is a top 3 blocker and top 3 pass catcher. The compares are for shock/clicks/max hopuim not for college profiles. Kittle is like Tom brady in his rise to elite status, very very very rare path/outliner. But its not my style to poop on fans getting hype for a player, I just couldnt take any more of the "Kittle 2.0" fairy dust.

Here is a recent piece saying he has "superstar potential"(guess jags should have took him 1st overall..."

https://www.derp/2021/5/17/22440034/nfl-carolina-panthers-tommy-tremble-has-potential-to-be-next-superstar-tight-end-is-he-george-kittle

 

enough hopium to fuel all of Chicago...