Some good roster analysis from Gantt

[ForJimmy]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

I don't think anybody would call Christensen "elite". Hell, from what I've read, a lot of analysts wouldn't call anybody other than Sewell "elite"

Thing is though, we didn't pass on Sewell. He just didn't make it to our pick. You can say we could have traded up, but I think it's unlikely we were gonna do that for anybody.

So now that it's over, I can sit here and scream and cry and whine and b-tch and talk down everybody in the Panthers organization, or I can just say "oh well" and hope for the best.

I prefer Option B.

Just own it. It’s ok. You wanted Slater if Sewell was gone because he was the other elite prospect in your eyes. Our staff either thinks Erving is good enough or this class was deep enough to find value later. I don’t think Christensen is one of the elite prospects which is my point... Sewell and Slater were. No one here is crying about it. There are legit concerns that are being brought up and that’s fine for fans to do. I love the Horn pick and hope Darnold kills it, but I’m still concerned at how much faith was put in him...

[AceBoogie]

3 hours ago, joemac said:

Nobody mortgaged the future on Darnold.  Mortgaging the future would have been trading 4 first rounders for Watson or to move up in the draft to take a QB.

Seeing as Rhule is tied to Darnold’s success or lack their of, you could certainly say that the coaching staff has mortgaged their careers on Sam Darnold. Which should be pretty damn scary seeing as he hasn’t been able to save any of previous coaches with his play. 

[joemac]

1 minute ago, AceBoogie said:

Seeing as Rhule is tied to Darnold’s success or lack their of, you could certainly say that the coaching staff has mortgaged their careers on Sam Darnold. Which should be pretty damn scary seeing as he hasn’t been able to save any of previous coaches with his play. 

Rhule and everybody else will still be here if Darnold shits the bed next year.

Edited May 5, 2021 by joemac

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Just own it. It’s ok. You wanted Slater if Sewell was gone because he was the other elite prospect in your eyes. Our staff either thinks Erving is good enough or this class was deep enough to find value later. I don’t think Christensen is one of the elite prospects which is my point... Sewell and Slater were. No one here is crying about it. There are legit concerns that are being brought up and that’s fine for fans to do. I love the Horn pick and hope Darnold kills it, but I’m still concerned at how much faith was put in him...

Nope. No one here is crying about it, including me.

I'm not so sure that statement would have been true on draft day though. Each time we traded down, multiple hissy fits were thrown.

[Diehardpanth02]

24 minutes ago, CRA said:

I guess the question is....how do most teams successfully find their guy? 

Trial and Error. Draft and Free Agency until one clicks. 

We did it with Cam. Seattle and New England Russ and Brady. Tampa bay by signing a free agent. You just need a guy that works with the personnel

[Diehardpanth02]

10 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

If we're still flailing after two years we might be "on to the next one" with the staff too.

Moving on from Teddy quickly gives me hope that this staff can recognize their mistakes and move past them quickly, but you can only swing and miss at QB while putting up bad records for so long before you're deemed the problem.

I figured someone say that.

Think about it for a second. Rhule has a 7 year contract, not to say it couldn't be terminated. But even still 7 years. That's how much Tepper felt it was necessary to lock him in. Meaning by year 5 he expects us to be regular contenders.

If in year 5 we haven't made it past a first round appearance then it's time to start thinking else where and that is realistic. But if we give Sam 2 years, it will only be Rhules 3rd. And Fitts second. I believe they'll be allowed one more shot at finding their QB if Sam isn't it. And that's assuming he doesn't pan out between now and then.

Those seem like realistic deadlines IMO. 5 seasons is plenty for a coach to put together a 52 and compete if not, then he's not head coach material.

[PNW_PantherMan]

I like statistics and historical data as much as the next guy.  But, there's an important thing to remember.  Franchise QBs that win Super Bowls are the exception and incredibly rare.  This limits the usefulness of statistical analysis.

[LinvilleGorge]

21 minutes ago, Diehardpanth02 said:

I figured someone say that.

Think about it for a second. Rhule has a 7 year contract, not to say it couldn't be terminated. But even still 7 years. That's how much Tepper felt it was necessary to lock him in. Meaning by year 5 he expects us to be regular contenders.

If in year 5 we haven't made it past a first round appearance then it's time to start thinking else where and that is realistic. But if we give Sam 2 years, it will only be Rhules 3rd. And Fitts second. I believe they'll be allowed one more shot at finding their QB if Sam isn't it. And that's assuming he doesn't pan out between now and then.

Those seem like realistic deadlines IMO. 5 seasons is plenty for a coach to put together a 52 and compete if not, then he's not head coach material.

Yeah, Tepper believed in him. Likely still does. But if Darnold flops and the guy Tepper wanted in Fields succeeds and we're Rhule has yet to out together a winning season after three years (two years from now)... well, at the least those meetings are gonna start to get awkward.

[KatsAzz]

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Edited May 5, 2021 by KatsAzz

[KatsAzz]

There is no way the Panthers mortgaged their future for Darnold because they were able to make a deal for him without having to trade any first-round picks, including this year's 8th overall pick, and kept each of their picks of the first five rounds in 2021.

They risked very little for an opportunity to have their guy of the future at quarterback.

Whether or not Darnold is the long-term solution is to be determined but they are taking a flyer on a 23-year-old quarterback who has a lot of talent and potential.

If Matt Rhule and Joe Brady can elevate his game to the next level to become a respectable starting quarterback, the Panthers will win this trade. 

Not to mention, the coaching and personnel surrounding  Darnold in New York was no help.

He'll now have a lot of that with the Panthers.

 

 

 

 

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[Diehardpanth02]

1 minute ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, Tepper believed in him. Likely still does. But if Darnold flops and the guy Tepper wanted in Fields succeeds and we're Rhule has yet to out together a winning season after three years (two years from now)... well, at the least those meetings are gonna start to get awkward.

For sure seems like it would be a strike one and rightfully so. But as of right now it's all an if.

I thought getting Sam was the sensical move before the draft tho. And was a proponent of a QB competition, but I can also in the same situation see why they played it like they did.

Our depth was really, really, really bad. And it was always going to take more than one draft, or one QB to get us to play of contention.

They checked box one. Depth, and overall roster upgrade. Some people believe QB was more important. And they're not wrong either.

[grimesgoat]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

When you have to go back decades to find your examples and even those are a stretch... oh wee mayne.

It's basically exactly my point. It's a long shot.

I wasn't cherry-picking.  As I said, my list includes HOF or Near-HOF QBs drafted very high that had won championships.  I tossed the guys that got to sit a few years as I see that as a big advantage.  If you can think of other examples, i'll be glad to add them to the list.

More recent guys - Stafford's first 3 years are similar (60% completion %, 7,840 yds, 37 ints) while Alex Smith's are significantly worse (54% completion rate and a 19/31 td-to-int. ratio.).  Cam, Luck and Matt Ryan had good years immediately, but they haven't won the big one.  Sam Bradford had very similar numbers (58% completion, 45/34 td-to-int ratio), but he was always running for his life and getting hurt.

Again, the point was not to compare him to everyone - just similarly situated peers that started out on lousy teams, had mediocre numbers for 3 years, but over time, figured it out.  He may end up in that category - but its too early to tell.  

[grimesgoat]

14 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, Tepper believed in him. Likely still does. But if Darnold flops and the guy Tepper wanted in Fields succeeds and we're Rhule has yet to out together a winning season after three years (two years from now)... well, at the least those meetings are gonna start to get awkward.

My understanding is that Tepper wanted Fields for marketing reasons.  To me, that's the wrong reason to want a particular QB.  

[LinvilleGorge]

8 minutes ago, grimesgoat said:

I wasn't cherry-picking.  As I said, my list includes HOF or Near-HOF QBs drafted very high that had won championships.  I tossed the guys that got to sit a few years as I see that as a big advantage.  If you can think of other examples, i'll be glad to add them to the list.

More recent guys - Stafford's first 3 years are similar (60% completion %, 7,840 yds, 37 ints) while Alex Smith's are significantly worse (54% completion rate and a 19/31 td-to-int. ratio.).  Cam, Luck and Matt Ryan had good years immediately, but they haven't won the big one.  Sam Bradford had very similar numbers (58% completion, 45/34 td-to-int ratio), but he was always running for his life and getting hurt.

Again, the point was not to compare him to everyone - just similarly situated peers that started out on lousy teams, had mediocre numbers for 3 years, but over time, figured it out.  He may end up in that category - but its too early to tell.  

The rest of the list includes the long, long list of QBs who never worked out.