Some good roster analysis from Gantt

[ForJimmy]

2 minutes ago, grimesgoat said:

Dude.  I always read and appreciate your posts.  But you have to get off this whole Darnold is a bust/reclamation project.  He's been in the league 3 years.  QB is a tough job. that takes more than 3 years to become really good at it.

I took a look at several QBs' first 3 year stats and compared them to Darnold.  I limited the comparison to first round picks that played right away, won championships and became franchise QBs, many HOFs.  These are some of the greatest QBs to ever play.  This does leave some all-time greats out, such as Rogers, Young, Staubach and Kelly - who all got to watch a few years before they were thrown into the fire, plus Marino who never won anything.  I included Brees despite the fact he did get to sit and watch his rookie year.  Other than Peyton Manning, the numbers are extraordinary similar to Darnold's.  No one would say these guys are busts.

QB	Dft. #	Age	Games	Comp	Att	%	Yds	Yds/Game	td	int	sk
Namath	1st	22	36	654	1,302	50%	9,606	267	63	70	-
Griese	4th	22	34	473	938	50%	6,173	182	46	50	-
Bradshaw	1st	22	41	433	899	48%	5,556	136	31	58	87
Elway	1st	23	40	664	1,244	53%	8,152	204	47	52	90
Aikman	1st	23	38	618	1,055	59%	7,082	186	31	46	90
P Manning	1st	22	48	1,014	1,679	60%	12,287	256	85	58	56
Roethlisburger	11th	22	41	644	1,032	62%	8,519	208	52	43	99
Brees	3rd	22	28	540	909	59%	5,807	207	29	31	47
E Manning	1st	23	41	690	1,276	54%	8,049	196	54	44	66
Darnold	3rd	21	38	729	1,219	60%	8,097	213	45	39	98
Average	3rd	22	39	646	1,155	56%	7,933	205	48	49	79

Although Darnold's numbers are consistent with the averages of these great QBs, a couple of other things jumped out at me:

1. He was the youngest starting out.

2. He was sacked more than anyone, suggesting his OL sucked.

3. His completion % was actually much higher than the overall average.

4. All of these guys (including Peyton) threw more INTs than games played (Darnold was right at 1 per game).

Look - we know he was under the microscope in NY and had a shortage of help from his coaching and supporting cast.  His numbers are consistent with a guy picked early by a team bad enough to pick early.  The next 2 years will show how good he can be.  Its just waaaaay to early to call him a bust or reclamation project.  He has just as good of a chance to become a franchise QB as Fields or anyone else.

 

 

Love that data/input! Makes me feel better about him going into this season.

[onmyown]

If Fields or Jones balls out all 31 teams who did not draft them or trade up for them mortgaged their futures picking a player who is not valued as highly as a franchise QB because the opportunity was there.

Hell all the teams that didn’t pick Rodgers or Jackson at the bottom of the first or Wilson in the third mortgaged their futures too because they missed the opportunity. 

All these mortgages of the future happening!

Yea. No. Not what it means. Darnold, if failed, is simply a wasted pick. And the opportunity will be there again because we didn’t mortgage that opportunity by trading them away, except round 2 next year. And that opportunity doesn’t have to be a top 8 pick and may not even be a rookie.

Something like the 49ers and Lance or hell even the Rams move qualifies for mortgaging the future.

[pantherclaw]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's not about just what I think. It's a reality that 1st round bust reclamation projects are rare. We're keenly aware of the success rate of 1st round QBs but we seem to be heavily downplaying the success rate of former busts (Darnold) and second rate vets (Teddy). We're trying to hit the jackpot on long shot bets.

I don't believe Sam's story has been written yet. 

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, grimesgoat said:

Dude.  I always read and appreciate your posts.  But you have to get off this whole Darnold is a bust/reclamation project.  He's been in the league 3 years.  QB is a tough job. that takes more than 3 years to become really good at it.

I took a look at several QBs' first 3 year stats and compared them to Darnold.  I limited the comparison to first round picks that played right away, won championships and became franchise QBs, many HOFs.  These are some of the greatest QBs to ever play.  This does leave some all-time greats out, such as Rogers, Young, Staubach and Kelly - who all got to watch a few years before they were thrown into the fire, plus Marino who never won anything.  I included Brees despite the fact he did get to sit and watch his rookie year.  Other than Peyton Manning, the numbers are extraordinary similar to Darnold's.  No one would say these guys are busts.

QB	Dft. #	Age	Games	Comp	Att	%	Yds	Yds/Game	td	int	sk
Namath	1st	22	36	654	1,302	50%	9,606	267	63	70	-
Griese	4th	22	34	473	938	50%	6,173	182	46	50	-
Bradshaw	1st	22	41	433	899	48%	5,556	136	31	58	87
Elway	1st	23	40	664	1,244	53%	8,152	204	47	52	90
Aikman	1st	23	38	618	1,055	59%	7,082	186	31	46	90
P Manning	1st	22	48	1,014	1,679	60%	12,287	256	85	58	56
Roethlisburger	11th	22	41	644	1,032	62%	8,519	208	52	43	99
Brees	3rd	22	28	540	909	59%	5,807	207	29	31	47
E Manning	1st	23	41	690	1,276	54%	8,049	196	54	44	66
Darnold	3rd	21	38	729	1,219	60%	8,097	213	45	39	98
Average	3rd	22	39	646	1,155	56%	7,933	205	48	49	79

Although Darnold's numbers are consistent with the averages of these great QBs, a couple of other things jumped out at me:

1. He was the youngest starting out.

2. He was sacked more than anyone, suggesting his OL sucked.

3. His completion % was actually much higher than the overall average.

4. All of these guys (including Peyton) threw more INTs than games played (Darnold was right at 1 per game).

Look - we know he was under the microscope in NY and had a shortage of help from his coaching and supporting cast.  His numbers are consistent with a guy picked early by a team bad enough to pick early.  The next 2 years will show how good he can be.  Its just waaaaay to early to call him a bust or reclamation project.  He has just as good of a chance to become a franchise QB as Fields or anyone else.

 

 

The majority of the QBs you listed played in an entirely different era of football that was far different than today's pass happy league. Yes, successful bust reclamation projects do happen. They're just rate. No, it's not unfair to call Darnold a bust. He absolutely was in NY. We're hoping he won't be in Carolina. 

[LinvilleGorge]

1 minute ago, pantherclaw said:

I don't believe Sam's story has been written yet. 

The first couple chapters have been. We're hoping for a serious plot twist.

[CRA]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The first couple chapters have been. We're hoping for a serious plot twist.

[pantherclaw]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The first couple chapters have been. We're hoping for a serious plot twist.

I believe in his talent. 

[pantherclaw]

5 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The first couple chapters have been. We're hoping for a serious plot twist.

You're not allowed to enjoy the next chapter.

[*FreeFua*]

There is no helping this fan base.

[CRA]

5 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

There is no helping this fan base.

based on my scientific study....the more doubt that is created the better the Panthers perform.  It is all the overly optimistic people that keep dooming seasons. 

[SCO96]

33 minutes ago, grimesgoat said:

Dude.  I always read and appreciate your posts.  But you have to get off this whole Darnold is a bust/reclamation project.  He's been in the league 3 years.  QB is a tough job. that takes more than 3 years to become really good at it.

I took a look at several QBs' first 3 year stats and compared them to Darnold.  I limited the comparison to first round picks that played right away, won championships and became franchise QBs, many HOFs.  These are some of the greatest QBs to ever play.  This does leave some all-time greats out, such as Rogers, Young, Staubach and Kelly - who all got to watch a few years before they were thrown into the fire, plus Marino who never won anything.  I included Brees despite the fact he did get to sit and watch his rookie year.  Other than Peyton Manning, the numbers are extraordinary similar to Darnold's.  No one would say these guys are busts.

QB	Dft. #	Age	Games	Comp	Att	%	Yds	Yds/Game	td	int	sk
Namath	1st	22	36	654	1,302	50%	9,606	267	63	70	-
Griese	4th	22	34	473	938	50%	6,173	182	46	50	-
Bradshaw	1st	22	41	433	899	48%	5,556	136	31	58	87
Elway	1st	23	40	664	1,244	53%	8,152	204	47	52	90
Aikman	1st	23	38	618	1,055	59%	7,082	186	31	46	90
P Manning	1st	22	48	1,014	1,679	60%	12,287	256	85	58	56
Roethlisburger	11th	22	41	644	1,032	62%	8,519	208	52	43	99
Brees	3rd	22	28	540	909	59%	5,807	207	29	31	47
E Manning	1st	23	41	690	1,276	54%	8,049	196	54	44	66
Darnold	3rd	21	38	729	1,219	60%	8,097	213	45	39	98
Average	3rd	22	39	646	1,155	56%	7,933	205	48	49	79

Although Darnold's numbers are consistent with the averages of these great QBs, a couple of other things jumped out at me:

1. He was the youngest starting out.

2. He was sacked more than anyone, suggesting his OL sucked.

3. His completion % was actually much higher than the overall average.

4. All of these guys (including Peyton) threw more INTs than games played (Darnold was right at 1 per game).

Look - we know he was under the microscope in NY and had a shortage of help from his coaching and supporting cast.  His numbers are consistent with a guy picked early by a team bad enough to pick early.  The next 2 years will show how good he can be.  Its just waaaaay to early to call him a bust or reclamation project.  He has just as good of a chance to become a franchise QB as Fields or anyone else.

 

 

Take a look at the two guys with the worst TD/INT ratios: Bradshaw (-17) and Aikman (-15). These two guys ended their careers with a combined record of 7-0 in the Super Bowl. Both started their careers with teams at bottom of the league. By the end of their 5th seasons they were quarterbacking two of the greatest dynasties in NFL history. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by SCO96

[grimesgoat]

15 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The majority of the QBs you listed played in an entirely different era of football that was far different than today's pass happy league. Yes, successful bust reclamation projects do happen. They're just rate. No, it's not unfair to call Darnold a bust. He absolutely was in NY. We're hoping he won't be in Carolina. 

I figured you might say that.  But the pass attempts are very similar.  The overall average is 30 per game.  Darnold averaged 32 per game.  Namath 36, Griese 28, Elway 31, Aikman 28, etc.  These older guys were still slinging it.

I think the confusion centers around the term "bust".  I think of a bust as a final grade.  A guy that never lived up to his draft spot.  You seem to suggest he's a bust until he's not - but I don't want to put words in your mouth.

I think the QB position is unique and difficult and takes many years to become competent at it.  Especially these days where the offensive and defensive concepts/schemes are so much more difficult.  I look to a QB to work hard and get better.  I would never label anyone a bust they have had a fair opportunity to succeed.    

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, grimesgoat said:

I figured you might say that.  But the pass attempts are very similar.  The overall average is 30 per game.  Darnold averaged 32 per game.  Namath 36, Griese 28, Elway 31, Aikman 28, etc.  These older guys were still slinging it.

I think the confusion centers around the term "bust".  I think of a bust as a final grade.  A guy that never lived up to his draft spot.  You seem to suggest he's a bust until he's not - but I don't want to put words in your mouth.

I think the QB position is unique and difficult and takes many years to become competent at it.  Especially these days where the offensive and defensive concepts/schemes are so much more difficult.  I look to a QB to work hard and get better.  I would never label anyone a bust they have had a fair opportunity to succeed.    

The defenses they faced weren't similar though. Back in those days, DBs could pretty much maul receivers.

[bigdavis]

40 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

It's not about just what I think. It's a reality that 1st round bust reclamation projects are rare. We're keenly aware of the success rate of 1st round QBs but we seem to be heavily downplaying the success rate of former busts (Darnold) and second rate vets (Teddy). We're trying to hit the jackpot on long shot bets.

Wrong.  It IS ALL about "what you think."

This thread is nothing but your way-too-often repeated 3 statements:

1) that we "mortgaged the future," a spurious claim put to rest by several posters

2) the whole "opportunity cost" theory of yours, that you say isn't understood by anyone but you.  Not investing idle cash is a valid example of a lost opportunity cost, not the selection of one investment over another.  Opportunity cost includes the decision taken between two or more options. The cost is the price paid for choosing one option over another.  When Horn was chosen over Fields, that "cost" was unknown; it would only be created if Fields far outplays the combined contributions of Darnold + Horn.  AND THAT IS SOMETHING AS YET UNDETERMINED.

3) your factually incorrect claim, oft repeated, that Darnold is a failed reclamation project, and they hardly ever pay off for the reclaimer.  I have never seen a more soundly thrashed theory than by @grimesgoat's recent list of salient comparisons.  Bravo to him!

I say you should stop the debate now.  The luster of your past record of fine posts is being tarnished by a stubbornness to yield.

No-one (not even you) can say with a certainty how either of these QBs will play.  I do know this: Darnold is the Panther QB, not Fields, and the Draft team didn't flip a coin; they made a reasoned judgment.  They know more than any of us.

Go. Panthers!

Edited May 5, 2021 by bigdavis