Revisiting Chris Troll Simms

[CRA]

Circling back here for a minute since we rarely do such on this type stuff.  Simms was one of the most talked about "inside" guys putting out what he thought would happen in the draft. 

Simms got a grand total of 7 picks right in the first round.  2 of those being free spaces essentially in Trevor and Wilson.   And almost all in the top 7.   And the picks that made  people pay attention to him and care? Mac in the top 5 and Fields 32nd? Not even close.

Moral of the story?  There isn't a big difference between looking at the mock a drunk huddler puts out there...and what Chris Simms does. 

[Peppers90 NC]

Simms is pretty good at analyzing what happened more so than what will happen. Not sure really what his gripe about Fields was about, but since landing in Chicago, it might actually come true.

[Moo Daeng]

Seems as good or better than others I'm looking at.

Daniel Jeremiah got 5.  Kiper 6.

It's a waste of energy to look at mock drafts as anything but a time killer.

Edited May 3, 2021 by Moo Daeng

[LinvilleGorge]

4 minutes ago, Peppers90 NC said:

Simms is pretty good at analyzing what happened more so than what will happen. Not sure really what his gripe about Fields was about, but since landing in Chicago, it might actually come true.

My favorite two QB prospects in this draft were Fields and Wilson and both ended up landing in awful spots. We'll see how that pans out. I don't think Nagy will get a chance to fully ruin Fields though. If he doesn't get his poo together he's probably gonna get fired.

[Anybodyhome]

To be fair, Mel Kiper has made a living off the NFL draft, and he doesn't even pay attention to what team needs are. He simply puts out a mock based on where he ranks players. And when he's wrong (a lot), he acts all pissy, makes excuses and tries to tell us the team screwed up. 

[Peppers90 NC]

3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

My favorite two QB prospects in this draft were Fields and Wilson and both ended up landing in awful spots. We'll see how that pans out. I don't think Nagy will get a chance to fully ruin Fields though. If he doesn't get his poo together he's probably gonna get fired.

I loved Fields as well, kinda hoped he was picked before so I wouldn’t regret us not taking him. Between the those two guys and their respective teams, I have much more confidence in Saleh over Nagy, that guy is trash. The Jets could be a nice team in a year or two, where I see Chicago having to hit the reset button on their staff, and hopefully their GM. Fields will have to deal with incompetence and changing of coaches and systems. He literally land in the worst possible spot.

[GamecockSmitty4]

I don't usually put a lot of stock into who is mocked to which teams but generally can get a pretty good idea of overall rankings of prospects. It would be cool if someone did an analysis of different outlets projections vs results using standard deviation of where players are picked. That could at least tell you who is generally correct with their evaluations compared to the teams. 

[LinvilleGorge]

2 minutes ago, Peppers90 NC said:

I loved Fields as well, kinda hoped he was picked before so I wouldn’t regret us not taking him. Between the those two guys and their respective teams, I have much more confidence in Saleh over Nagy, that guy is trash. The Jets could be a nice team in a year or two, where I see Chicago having to hit the reset button on their staff, and hopefully their GM. Fields will have to deal with incompetence and changing of coaches and systems. He literally land in the worst possible spot.

Yeah, Nagy is basically looking like Gase 2.0 IMO.

[Monrowed]

6 minutes ago, Anybodyhome said:

To be fair, Mel Kiper has made a living off the NFL draft, and he doesn't even pay attention to what team needs are. He simply puts out a mock based on where he ranks players. And when he's wrong (a lot), he acts all pissy, makes excuses and tries to tell us the team screwed up. 

I believe that he uses a BPA model that is based on which teams take various players first. If any team changes course or deviates from BPA and drafts for need, then that cascades down the entire board. So, yes, mock drafts are just for entertainment and perhaps a better source would be player rankings based on position. 

[Scott12345]

11 minutes ago, Anybodyhome said:

To be fair, Mel Kiper has made a living off the NFL draft, and he doesn't even pay attention to what team needs are. He simply puts out a mock based on where he ranks players. And when he's wrong (a lot), he acts all pissy, makes excuses and tries to tell us the team screwed up. 

thank goodness for nfl network, didnt have to listen to kipers dribble garbage on espn

[trueblade]

12 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

My favorite two QB prospects in this draft were Fields and Wilson and both ended up landing in awful spots. We'll see how that pans out. I don't think Nagy will get a chance to fully ruin Fields though. If he doesn't get his poo together he's probably gonna get fired.

I worried Nagy's lack of job security could cause him to throw Justin out there before he's ready. If Justin shows promise even later on in the season, it could save Nagy and Perez's jobs.

[trueblade]

1 minute ago, Scott12345 said:

thank goodness for nfl network, didnt have to listen to kipers dribble garbage on espn

I watched ESPN this year because of Greenie hosting. I've been a fan of his for a while. I thought he did a pretty good job.

[Anybodyhome]

6 minutes ago, Monrowed said:

I believe that he uses a BPA model that is based on which teams take various players first. If any team changes course or deviates from BPA and drafts for need, then that cascades down the entire board. So, yes, mock drafts are just for entertainment and perhaps a better source would be player rankings based on position. 

And it showed just how flawed his approach is:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/grading-nfl-mock-drafts-2021-mel-kiper-todd-mcshay-peter-king/fw2xshq63xru1krh7smxmw85l

Vinnie Lyler (Sporting News): 7/32

Mel Kiper (ESPN): 5/32

Todd McShay (ESPN): 9/32

Daniel Jeremiah (NFL Network): 4/32

Peter King (NBC Sports): 9/32

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

23 minutes ago, Anybodyhome said:

To be fair, Mel Kiper has made a living off the NFL draft, and he doesn't even pay attention to what team needs are. He simply puts out a mock based on where he ranks players. And when he's wrong (a lot), he acts all pissy, makes excuses and tries to tell us the team screwed up. 

The fact he can even still speak or hasnt burned a hole through the ozone layer after huffing all that hairspray should be the 8th wonder of the world.