All that Glitters is not QB: The success of first overall pick QBs since 1999

[TheWiz]

Michael Vick - "Got figured out." lol

I'm also interested in what this looks like for every other position in every other round. 

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, frankw said:

Well it isn't hard to tell who here does not care for the idea of taking a quarterback in the first round because they make sure to remind you at every opportunity and steer all conversations. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to draft a quarterback. It is understandable to be risk averse. But it is the offseason and what else is there to talk about with the draft two days away? There is also the very real reality that Darnold does not work out. Most of us would be perfectly happy with him becoming a solid starter. But what are the odds? They are not significantly higher than a rookie. We are also desperate to unload the previous quarterback who turned out to be a bust after months of attempts to convince others he was better than he actually was. Just enjoy this brief time of uncertainty and cautiously optimistic discussions because there could be joy or grief around the corner who knows.

Why does it matter who wants a QB or not? This is about the draft, the risks, etc.  When you say, "There is also the very real possibility that Darnold does not work out..."  are you implying that there is also a chance that he does?  Are you also implying that there is a chance Fields, Wilson, Lance, and Lawrence do not work out?  When you say, "(the odds) are not significantly higher than a rookie..." What is that based on?  Your judgement?  So you are judging what you think I want by making biased, unsubstantiated statements you cannot support to oppose an assumption.  Then you conclude with advice on how we should enjoy this draft.  Nice.

[SmartyHurney4]

Statistics aren't real. Unless we're making an argument in favor of not taking a QB and then they are.

[SmartyHurney4]

Analytics that will shape Draft Strategy or my name isn't MHS831

 

[frankw]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Why does it matter who wants a QB or not? This is about the draft, the risks, etc.  When you say, "There is also the very real possibility that Darnold does not work out..."  are you implying that there is also a chance that he does?  Are you also implying that there is a chance Fields, Wilson, Lance, and Lawrence do not work out?  When you say, "(the odds) are not significantly higher than a rookie..." What is that based on?  Your judgement?  So you are judging what you think I want by making biased, unsubstantiated statements you cannot support to oppose an assumption.  Then you conclude with advice on how we should enjoy this draft.  Nice.

Of course there is a chance Darnold works out I mentioned that in the post. But there is no historical precedent to compare with for this rare situation right? Common sense says the odds are not stacked in favor of Darnold out of the blue becoming an elite quarterback in one offseason wouldn't you agree? If you are telling me you want a qb at pick 8 this thread says otherwise. No one is telling you what to do, I'm not dictating anything to you but simply offering a viewpoint based on an observation I made. Quarterback is and at this point in time likely always will be the most important position on the field so teams will keep drafting them high and yes our team may be one of them again soon we don't know. Anywho good chat.