All that Glitters is not QB: The success of first overall pick QBs since 1999

[MHS831]

1999	Tim Couch			Bust
2001	Michael Vick*			Got figured out
2002	David Carr			Bust
2003	Carson Palmer*			Good, not great
2004	Eli Manning*			Decent to good
2005	Alex Smith*			Up and down-not great by any means
2007	JaMarcus Russell			Busted before first game
2009	Matthew Stafford*			Solid--bad team every year
2010	Sam Bradford			Richest bust in history (IR hall of fame)
2011	Cam Newton*			No OL cut 5 years off his career
2012	Andrew Luck*			Not sure if he loved football more than life
2015	Jameis Winston*			crab legs and jellyfish brain
2016	Jared Goff*			Good OL, good D, still struggled
2018	Baker Mayfield			Seems to be coming around
2019 2020	Kyler Murray* joe Burrow			Seem to be coming around
Annually, teams were pumped about these qbs. Since 1999 there were   15 QBs drafted first overall. I see 5 (red) that fall into the "BUST" category (.333) I see 2 (green) that had moments, but hardly stellar careers (.133) I see 3 (purple) that have yet to turn the corner (too new): (.200) I see 5 that had good careers despite their surroundings (.333) and of those successful QBs drafted since 2009, They all have career-shortening injuries and have had multiple surgeries   These are all QBs drafted first overall over the past 22 years.

Edited April 27, 2021 by MHS831

[MechaZain]

A coinflip's chance that you'll get a good QB at #1 is decent odds I'd say.  I'm a little surprised it's that high. You have record holders and multiple super bowl appearances in that list too.

I'd love to know the percentage of rookie QBs that make it relative to other positions, that's what will tell you their draft value. I feel like there's only 2-3 noteworthy guys who come out of each class at most.

 

[TheBigKat]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

1999	Tim Couch			Bust
2001	Michael Vick*			Got figured out
2002	David Carr			Bust
2003	Carson Palmer*			Good, not great
2004	Eli Manning*			Decent to good
2005	Alex Smith*			Up and down-not great by any means
2007	JaMarcus Russell			Busted before first game
2009	Matthew Stafford*			Solid--bad team every year
2010	Sam Bradford			Richest bust in history (IR hall of fame)
2011	Cam Newton*			No OL cut 5 years off his career
2012	Andrew Luck*			Not sure if he loved football more than life
2015	Jameis Winston*			crab legs and jellyfish brain
2016	Jared Goff*			Good OL, good D, still struggled
2018	Baker Mayfield			Seems to be coming around
2019 2020	Kyler Murray* joe Burrow			Seem to be coming around
Annually, teams were pumped about these qbs. Since 1999 there were   15 QBs drafted first overall. I see 5 (red) that fall into the "BUST" category (.333) I see 2 (green) that had moments, but hardly stellar careers (.133) I see 3 (purple) that have yet to turn the corner (too new): (.200) I see 5 that had good careers despite their surroundings (.333) and of those successful QBs drafted since 2009, They all have career-shortening injuries and have had multiple surgeries   These are all QBs drafted first overall over the past 22 years.

Eli Manning is a two time SB champion. The fact you labeled him Decent to Good instantly turns your analysis to trash

[Mr. Scot]

I don't get a lot of agreement on this, but I still think Carr could have been good if the Texans hadn't given him such lousy protection and sh-tty coaching.

For the first two years, they didn't even teach him to frigging read defenses. They just told him to throw to a spot.

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

Why cut off in 1999? Did something happen in 1998?

[Ivan The Awesome]

I'm tired of the Narrative that the OL wasn't good when Cam was here. It had two pro bowl Guards a fuging Pro bowl C and Two decent Tackles before they met fuging Von Miller. Y'all need to stop with that narrative. What he didn't have was fuging weapons and a competent OC and coaching staff. Newton carried this god damn team on his back several times and he NEVER got a god damn #1 WR. He had a decent Defense but even that wasn't enough due to Coaching. Newtons career was pissed away by the coaching staff riding his talent instead of  harnessing it and developing it and surrounding him with more weapons. Don't even talk about CMC and DJ being there for him on the Tail end of his career either. The Oline has been bad the last years of his tenure here. But not all his career. 

 

 

Also this thread is ass. 

[ForJimmy]

Didn’t we have a post earlier this offseason about most starting QBs in the past 10 years were first round picks abs how hard it is to get one in the later rounds? Also it’s kind of a mute argument as Darnold was also a first rounder...

[MHS831]

22 minutes ago, TheBigKat said:

Eli Manning is a two time SB champion. The fact you labeled him Decent to Good instantly turns your analysis to trash

Some people just look for something to bitch about (yes, I mean you).  1.  I put him in the top category--he was decent to good, and because he was good on 2 Sundays, does not make him great.  He was a .500 QB (since you equate wins to QB greatness and his super bowl years he was a combined 19-13 during the regular season.)  He beat the same team twice--they had their number.  His QBR for his career was 84.1.   

Sorry that is not great in my mind.

  So do you think Marino sucks?  His overall W-L record was 147-93 and his QBR was higher.  Never won a super bowl. 

Trent Dilfer won a super bowl.  He was over .500 as a starting QB for his career and he made a pro bowl.  You gonna put him above Marino for winning a super bowl?  Is he lalmost as great as Eli?
Your reaction is the trash here. 

 

[BrianS]

1 hour ago, TheBigKat said:

Eli Manning is a two time SB champion. The fact you labeled him Decent to Good instantly turns your analysis to trash

The fact that you are ready to lay a wreath at the feet of Eli isn't exactly covering you with in depth analysis kudos either neighbor.  The legend of Eli really sorta comes down to this:

Lets face it:  Eli won those games because Coughlin managed to stop Brady.

[frankw]

Well it isn't hard to tell who here does not care for the idea of taking a quarterback in the first round because they make sure to remind you at every opportunity and steer all conversations. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to draft a quarterback. It is understandable to be risk averse. But it is the offseason and what else is there to talk about with the draft two days away? There is also the very real reality that Darnold does not work out. Most of us would be perfectly happy with him becoming a solid starter. But what are the odds? They are not significantly higher than a rookie. We are also desperate to unload the previous quarterback who turned out to be a bust after months of attempts to convince others he was better than he actually was. Just enjoy this brief time of uncertainty and cautiously optimistic discussions because there could be joy or grief around the corner who knows.

[Sgt Schultz]

Ah, trying to find a young QB.  It really is a crapshoot, MHS831. 

I will add another variable to this.  As Mr. Scot said about Carr, how many young QBs flamed out or never ignited might have under different circumstances?  We'll never know.

The lot most high draft choices face is they go to lousy teams.  With QB's, it seems like they often go to chronically lousy teams.  I've said that if Tom Brady had been selected by the Cleveland Browns, it is possible he would have been out of the league in three years and nobody would remember who he is.

Even Lawrence, who a lot of talent analysts have as the most sure-thing since Andrew Luck, could wind up falling well short because of the team and organization around him.  I think the Jets could get Wilson killed back there, because even with a new coaching staff, that is what the Jets seem to do.  Situations like the 49ers sitting at #3 do not happen every day, and have to have Fields or Jones looking to the sky and yelling "thank you for making me #3."

That's not to say Lawrence or Wilson won't succeed and maybe turn things around, but history is not their friend.

I agree with you on Eli Manning.  When he was good, and he had times when he was great.  But when he was bad, he was awful.  He looked like Joe Montana in two Super Bowls against the Pats.  But there were times he looked like Hannah Montana in other big games.  He also benefited from a defense that had Brady and Belichick talking to themselves in those two Super Bowls. So, he was a mixed bag.  He was very much a part of those two Super Bowl runs, and he deserves a place in the Giants Hall of Fame.  But, his overall body of work does not put him on the QB Mt. Olympus.

 

[Tbe]

56 minutes ago, ForJimmy said:

Didn’t we have a post earlier this offseason about most starting QBs in the past 10 years were first round picks abs how hard it is to get one in the later rounds? Also it’s kind of a mute argument as Darnold was also a first rounder...

Exactly - What happens to a team that never drafts a QB in the first?

[SmartyHurney4]

[pantherclaw]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

I don't get a lot of agreement on this, but I still think Carr could have been good if the Texans hadn't given him such lousy protection and sh-tty coaching.

For the first two years, they didn't even teach him to frigging read defenses. They just told him to throw to a spot.

I agree. And he was the most hit QB is his first 2 years. Made him very gun shy.