Good Article on Sam Darnold

[ladypanther]

This is from the Athletic and not written by Person. The information and perspective is a little different but the same theme as not given a chance in NY.  I did find it interesting and made me feel a little better about Darnold.

https://theathletic.com/2546016/2021/04/27/sam-darnolds-fantasy-and-trading-card-value-could-swing-wildly-after-the-nfl-draft-heres-why-you-should-bet-on-him-now/?source=dailyemail

 

So for the first two years, Darnold was not terrible. He was better than Josh Allen in the key stat for measuring performance their first two years. The third year, he cratered. But look at the hand that he was dealt. What percentile was his environment on the Jets in each year, measured by coaching and supporting cast?

 

As a rookie, the talent was terrible and the coaching below average, plus he had a center who for weeks could not reliably execute a shotgun snap, making it nearly impossible to function as a quarterback. Let’s be generous and say this was a 30th-percentile environment, where average is obviously 50th, and Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 95th. In reality, I think it’s closer to 20th.

Year 2 he had mono. He may not have been healthy all year. His enlarged spleen hampered his ability to run, which is a strength. The coaching was not any better, and arguably worse, as Adam Gase lost the PR battle a head coach needs to win from Day 1 and then it only got worse. The offensive line was a horror show. He had below average, but not terrible, receivers. So this was 25th percentile, at best, but with mono. I’d actually call it 15th.

Year 3 was the pandemic weirdness. The coaching got worse somehow as it was clear from October that Adam Gase was a goner. Then the Trevor Lawrence talk started — all of a sudden Darnold was being asked by fans to lose so the franchise could replace him. The offensive line was better, when Mekhi Becton was able to play. The receivers and running game somehow got worse. Let’s call this 10th percentile. So yeah, he got worse every year but so did his circumstances and team environment (players and coaching).

Darnold is still only 23 (he’ll play the 2021 season at age 24) — younger not only than Joe Burrow but also 2021 NFL draft prospect Kyle Trask. Do we even know who Darnold is? Here’s a thought experiment: If the Jets had some sick objective to destroy Darnold’s career, what exactly would they have done differently? Can you name one thing?

Edited April 27, 2021 by ladypanther

[top dawg]

That's why I have an open mind about Darnold. So many Huddlers are taking it for granted that the QBs in the 2021 draft will be better, but I think that may be wishful thinking based on pre-draft hype. 

[SmokinwithWilly]

Where a player lands contributes so much to his success or failure. David Carr is a perfect example. He got sacked so many times he saw ghosts everywhere because he landed behind such a horrible offensive line. I'm optimistic about Darnold because I don't think he's had a real chance to develop bad habits. He's spent the majority of his time trying to fit into Gase's system which was throw it at the wall and see what sticks. 

[CanadianCat]

TBH, I would be a little disappointed if we draft a QB in the 1st round.

The very best case situation for our team is that he plays to his #3 overall draft status and we build around him. 

 

[Mr. Scot]

15 minutes ago, top dawg said:

That's why I have an open mind about Darnold. So many Huddlers are taking it for granted that the QBs in the 2021 draft will be better, but I think that may be wishful thinking based on pre-draft hype. 

You mean quarterbacks picked in the first round aren't guaranteed to be great?

I see people saying stuff like "keep trying, double your chances", etc but to me that'd be like taking a quarterback in the first round and then taking another one in the second. You know, just in case...

The whole idea just sounds goofy to me.

[raleigh-panther]

I have an open mind about Darnold but I would not be ready To hitch him to my franchise wagon

he simply has not done enough ...even when he could 

production league 

Want him to do well however, he had to produce year one 

 

[BrianS]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I see people saying stuff like "keep trying, double your chances", etc but to me that'd be like taking a quarterback in the first round and then taking another one in the second. You know, just in case...

The whole idea just sounds goofy to me.

The thing you're not thinking of is that Darnold already has two strikes against him.  I grant you a world of "But the Jets".  However, consider what we'd be saying if Darnold was at (pretty much) any other club.  "Failure".

Do you want to bet your franchise on a guy one strike from being labeled a failure?  I don't!  That's why I am 100% ok with drafting a QB if one we like is there - in whatever round.

I hope Darnold succeeds, but hope isn't something you should base your franchise around.  TB5, Grier and PJ are not valid fallback plans.  We know who they are and it's not NFL QB's.

[Michael G]

It will come down to what the coaches think. I really think they are trying to look at Darnold with "Fresh Eyes." I mean, as if he is coming out of college this year along with Fields, Jones and Lance Etc. If that was the group that was coming out (minus the bad tape from the jets- keep the good and bad tape from USC)- how does he stack up? Whatever they think the answer to that question is and who is actually available at #8 will determine who plays QB for us.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, BrianS said:

The thing you're not thinking of is that Darnold already has two strikes against him.  I grant you a world of "But the Jets".  However, consider what we'd be saying if Darnold was at (pretty much) any other club.  "Failure".

Do you want to bet your franchise on a guy one strike from being labeled a failure?  I don't!  That's why I am 100% ok with drafting a QB if one we like is there - in whatever round.

I hope Darnold succeeds, but hope isn't something you should base your franchise around.  TB5, Grier and PJ are not valid fallback plans.  We know who they are and it's not NFL QB's.

Again, first round quarterbacks aren't guaranteed to be franchise quarterbacks either.

That, plus if Darnold actually is good, then you stupidly wasted a first round pick when you could have used it on a player to make your team better.

[Moo Daeng]

7 minutes ago, BrianS said:

The thing you're not thinking of is that Darnold already has two strikes against him.  I grant you a world of "But the Jets".  However, consider what we'd be saying if Darnold was at (pretty much) any other club.  "Failure".

Do you want to bet your franchise on a guy one strike from being labeled a failure?  I don't!  That's why I am 100% ok with drafting a QB if one we like is there - in whatever round.

I hope Darnold succeeds, but hope isn't something you should base your franchise around.  TB5, Grier and PJ are not valid fallback plans.  We know who they are and it's not NFL QB's.

They aren't betting the franchise on him. They acquired him in a modest trade.

[shaqattaq]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

4 minutes ago, BrianS said:

The thing you're not thinking of is that Darnold already has two strikes against him.  I grant you a world of "But the Jets".  However, consider what we'd be saying if Darnold was at (pretty much) any other club.  "Failure".

Do you want to bet your franchise on a guy one strike from being labeled a failure?  I don't!  That's why I am 100% ok with drafting a QB if one we like is there - in whatever round.

I hope Darnold succeeds, but hope isn't something you should base your franchise around.  TB5, Grier and PJ are not valid fallback plans.  We know who they are and it's not NFL QB's.

Expand  

Again, first round quarterbacks aren't guaranteed to be franchise quarterbacks either.

That, plus if Darnold actually is good, then you stupidly wasted a first round pick when you could have used it on a player to make your team better.

I think Rhule & Fitterer have a QB in mind (don't know who) that they will snatch up at 8 IF he falls. That would be an excellent reason not to exercise Darnold's 5th year option. Granted, that could just be a smoke screen to fool teams wanting to trade up, who knows.  I do think Darnold has as much potential as 95% of the qb's available in the draft. the big question is can we get him to reCH that potential.

[joemac]

25 minutes ago, CanadianCat said:

TBH, I would be a little disappointed if we draft a QB in the 1st round.

The very best case situation for our team is that he plays to his #3 overall draft status and we build around him. 

 

Agreed and I personally do not think they plan on drafting a QB in round 1.  

[shaqattaq]

49 minutes ago, ladypanther said:

As a rookie, the talent was terrible and the coaching below average, plus he had a center who for weeks could not reliably execute a shotgun snap, making it nearly impossible to function as a quarterback.

I hadn't seen this perspective yet. His rookie center was so bad that they backed a truck load of money up to Ryan Kahlil's house to get him to un-retire and he had missed a lot of the prior 2 seasons with nerve damage to his neck!

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, shaqattaq said:

I think Rhule & Fitterer have a QB in mind (don't know who) that they will snatch up at 8 IF he falls. That would be an excellent reason not to exercise Darnold's 5th year option. Granted, that could just be a smoke screen to fool teams wanting to trade up, who knows.  I do think Darnold has as much potential as 95% of the qb's available in the draft. the big question is can we get him to reCH that potential.

The Panthers have already confirmed that they're basically treating Darnold like a rookie. Rhule specifically referred to his time with the Jets as being equivalent to his "junior and senior years".

I don't recall ever seeing a team take two rookies in the same year and ask them to compete for the starting job. Hell, coaching up one rookie is difficult enough.

Taking another quarterback with a high pick would be an absolute dumbass move.