What Are the Chances of Sewell Actually Dropping to us?

[54th man]

Sewell is my number 1 choice. I am thankful that Fitterer has set up free agency so that we can take the best available player. Sewell is not only in the top few prospects we should snatch but at an actual position of need as well

[Moo Daeng]

69%

[GOAT]

lol this draft needs to hurry tf up.

 

[DaveThePanther2008]

1 hour ago, Hoenheim said:

Sewell has to be our #1 prospect at this point . If the Bengals take Chase or Pitts we could have a decent shot at getting him . What do you think our chances are? 

 

And I'm starting to see a trend among mocks that if Sewell doesn't go to Cinci then the Lions take him right before our pick . If they really are that big of a threat to take him why wouldn't the Panthers trade up slightly to get him ? I personally would gladly trade one or two mid rounders along with 8 to get Detroit's 7 or Miami's 6 to get Sewell. It shouldn't cost that much because Detroit or Miami could likely still get the player they wanted because they only traded down one or two spots .

 

Don't want to put a percentage on it because too many teams may move up to get him.  

I've seen where Cincinnati has a good LT that they drafted in 2019.  According to the article he wasn't the problem on their O-line.  In fact he was the best player on their O-line.  I think they choose between Pitts or Chase.  Then he has to get past Miami and Detroit but the possibility is there.  I haven't been on the Dolphins or Lions board so I am not sure what their priority is.

If he makes it or dilemma is trade down or take Sewell.  

[grimesgoat]

Stirs is an optimist.

My numbers say there is a 59.2% chance he is gone.  

45.6% chance he goes to the bengals.  If he slips past the bengals, I give the lions a 25% chance of selecting him.

So there is a 41.2% chance he is there and I assume we would select him at 8.  The only caveat is if Denver is worried about NE giving us a bid for a QB that is too good to pass up and they offer us a 3rd or something to switch places.  Then I assume we pick him 9th.

If anyone would like to see my math, let me know.

[shaqattaq]

1 hour ago, AndrewLaskoski said:

Depends if the smoke screen the Panthers are deploying works. Sure seems like they’re publicly pumping their interest in QBs to make teams trade ahead of pick #8.

Agree, 1-3 are 99.9% QB's. Really good chance at least 1 more goes in front of us (trade or ATL). That leaves 3 non-QB picks ahead of us, and I think 1 of them is Pitts. Unfortunately, Sewell is probably the next best player. Maybe a 5th QB goes, maybe a defensive guy or a WR, hell, maybe Slater or Darrisaw is higher on Detroit's board... Anyhoo, I'm thinking there's about a 60% chance he's gone personally.

Edit, I think there's a 90% chance Slater is still available at 8, so I would not be a fan of trading up from 8.

Edited April 27, 2021 by shaqattaq

[MHS831]

46 minutes ago, mrcompletely11 said:

5 qb's in 7 picks????  While I would love for that to happen its just not going to go down like that. 

 

I think SF goes with Mac and the draft really starts with ATL.  If they go QB (which I doubt) then the craziness will start.  I still think they go pitts and Lance and/or fields begin their descent down the draft board. 

This.  Atlanta is the key.  Estimated Draft chaos to begin at roughly 9PM EST. Thursday, April 29 2021.

My opinion:  Atlanta takes Sewell, Pitts, or Lance in a long shot prediction.  Yet I find it a bit odd that Julio is on the block.  Chase if Julio is traded?

Edited April 27, 2021 by MHS831

[MHS831]

53 minutes ago, Riverboat Ron said:

My prediction trying to see through all the smokescreens and bs.

 

1. Jax- Tevor Lawrence

2. NYJ- Zach Wilson

3. SF- Justin Fields 

4. ATL- Kyle Pitts

5. CIN- Ja'Marr Chase

6. DEN- (trade) Trey Lance

7. NE- (trade) Mac Jones

8. CAR- Penei Sewell

9. MIAMI- Jaylen Waddle

10. DAL- Jaycee Horn

Possible, but we need 4 things to happen that are probably not the odds on favorite--not all of them, at least:  Atlanta takes Pitts over Sewell--possible.  Cincy takes Chase over Sewell--somewhat possible Then two trades, and I see those trades being possible.

 

[shaqattaq]

24 minutes ago, grimesgoat said:

Stirs is an optimist.

My numbers say there is a 59.2% chance he is gone.  

45.6% chance he goes to the bengals.  If he slips past the bengals, I give the lions a 25% chance of selecting him.

So there is a 41.2% chance he is there and I assume we would select him at 8.  The only caveat is if Denver is worried about NE giving us a bid for a QB that is too good to pass up and they offer us a 3rd or something to switch places.  Then I assume we pick him 9th.

If anyone would like to see my math, let me know.

Look at me, I pulled 60% chance he's gone outta my @$$, and you have an algorithm to back it up. 

[grimesgoat]

9 minutes ago, shaqattaq said:

Look at me, I pulled 60% chance he's gone outta my @$$, and you have an algorithm to back it up. 

it was tongue and cheek, but i am an actuary.  its what i do.

[Riverboat Ron]

26 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Possible, but we need 4 things to happen that are probably not the odds on favorite--not all of them, at least:  Atlanta takes Pitts over Sewell--possible.  Cincy takes Chase over Sewell--somewhat possible Then two trades, and I see those trades being possible.

 

Question is who teams value as their bpa and needs.

I think it's a domino effect, SF wants Wilson gets Fields.

Atl wants Fields get Pitts because he's their bpa and the cost is too high for teams to trade up.

Cin wants either Sewell, Pitts or Chase and try to trade with Miami and when they call the bluff Cin takes Chase.

I think Miami really values a weapon over OT just because they took Austin Jackson last year, without Pitts or Chase they want to trade back to get the 2nd tier of either Waddle or Smith. Den can finally trade up without selling the farm and grab either Lance or Fields.

Detroit has a history of working with Belichick and without Lance or Fields on the board they'd rather get extra trade capital. NE think Carolina is Jones's floor and with the next set of QB's being Mond, Trask or Mills they trade up. I don't think the'll put all their eggs in the basket for Cam.

Carolina gets Sewell or Slater.

[Mr. Scot]

I want it to happen.

Based on my history, that's a good sign that it probably won't

[Verge]

I do think he drops to 7 to Detroit, but that's about it. 

[*FreeFua*]

1 hour ago, Riverboat Ron said:

I personally think if either Jones or Fields are available at #8 Carolina will draft them, even though I would be annoyed, that's why Denver or NE will trade up. I could also see the Chargers jumping us at #7 if Sewell falls.

The Panthers aren’t drafting Mac Jones.