Analytics that will shape Draft Strategy or my name isn't MHS831

[MHS831]

I really liked the bet when Fua made it--not because I think I will win it--I actually think he has the advantage---reason?  Surtain could be gone, or will be gone before Horn if we trade back. However, we (my opinion) are looking for a plug and play, # 1 CB starter, and he is ready now.  So the knife has two edges.  I give the edge to Surtain only because he is less vulnerable to the double moves--and he needs less safety help as a result.  Aside from that--no preference.

Of course, you have to take into account the fact that Fua probably cheats or weasels out of bets.  I considered all options 

[raleigh-panther]

3 hours ago, BrianS said:

That's a lot of words.  I can shortcut that a bit.

We score TD's 50% of the time we are in the red zone.  If that doesn't scream OFFENSIVE LINE I don't know what does.

Or maybe it screams a QB1 and OC who do not execute in the redzone

[Smithers]

I’d 100% understand Parsons, Surtain, Horn and even Samuel Jr (later if we trade back).  I’d also understand Chase, Pitts, Slater, Darrisaw, and Sewel.  Lots of options

[Panthers Rhule]

1 hour ago, iamhubby1 said:

Yea, abysmal may have been a tad harsh. How about extremely frustrating?

 

Normally I would go ahead and take the QB, or franchise type LT at 8. But this year is different. I may just go with the trade back and grab more assets. 

I would say frustrating yeah. Especially after that 3 game win streak and the way we beat the Cardinals. THAT was the game where I and probably a lot of us, got ahead of ourselves and started thinking we were better than we were because we all could see how close we were to being who I think we will become. If that makes any sense. They were a legit playoff contender and we looked better. Even after that we played some good teams really well and even almost beat the Chiefs. I was still waiting for that last "click" that would put us into contention for a wildcard but then it never happened.

Teddy was never great but it almost looked like it could be enough. Losing CMC made a difference but it was more after Teddy got hurt. When he came back he was worse.  Still, I saw enough good that with these off season moves, which I am VERY optimistic about, plus the way we seem to be approaching the draft, that I have high hopes for the direction we're moving in. I'm not saying next season we'll set the league on fire but I can definitely see us moving up from wannabe to playoff contenders in 2022.

I think our defense will be much better and my hope on offense will be improvement and a little more Shazam! I'm not looking for Darnold to be a top 5 QB but if he can come out and have his best season to date and give us some big play possibilities and some passing TDs without too many turnovers then I think he will be fine here. I'm going to consider his first 3 seasons with the Jets as his rookie campaign on a bad team. Now I'll judge him as a year 2 QB that has some talent around him and I want to see his progression along that line. Then hopefully, next season we have more talent (or experience as everyone is either really young or new to the system) and see him continue to progress. 

I know I'm an optimist, I'm a not I glass half empty or glass half full type of guy, for me the glass is completely full, half water and half air. But I really believe that of all the young QBs that we could have brought here that Darnold has the biggest chance of becoming something special with THIS staff on THIS team. I think he's a perfect fit for what we want to do and I think our team is the perfect place for him to have success. I'm expecting at least a Mayfield type of improvement this season after he got paired with Stefanski. 

Edited April 25, 2021 by Panthers Rhule

[bigdog10]

I want Sewell but he’s not going to be there. My second priority is trading down with NE for their first next year and an additional pick. I’d take Surtain as my third choice. 
 

 

[Panthers Rhule]

29 minutes ago, Smithers said:

I’d 100% understand Parsons, Surtain, Horn and even Samuel Jr (later if we trade back).  I’d also understand Chase, Pitts, Slater, Darrisaw, and Sewel.  Lots of options

I would agree with everyone here except for 2. Parsons has to be an absolutely no way a fit for Rhules' team. Rhule is a character guy who scratches players off his list based on elevator behavior so I cannot imagine any scenario where he'd be okay with drafting Parsons in any round. Samuel JR is a good CB but I don't believe he fits our parameters for a QB and definitely not as a CB 1 or 2 and personally I think we are looking for a CB1. 

 

[OldhamA]

Ambry Thomas from Michigan is my guy at CB.

[MHS831]

57 minutes ago, raleigh-panther said:

Or maybe it screams a QB1 and OC who do not execute in the redzone

or  NO TE

[Panthers Rhule]

3 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

or  NO TE

Hopefully Arnold will help that situation out a little and the we either draft a WR in the mid to later ounds to do that or someone else on the roster steps up.

[Michael G]

Quote

Ambry Thomas from Michigan is my guy at CB.

I can see A. Thomas as an option in the later rounds. IMO He hasn't played enough ball to warrant a high draft pick, unless I'm confusing him with someone else.

There are a # of CB's that may prove helpful at some point in the later rounds. If we are wanting someone who can come in and compete to start right away, there are only a couple of options at CB and I think they will go early (Surtain, maybe Horn). Newsome, Adebo and a few others that might warrant a 2nd or 3rd round pick may be able to help some as rotational guys.  

[MHS831]

I appreciate the fact that everyone knows that I am just throwing stuff against the wall to give us something to lock horns about or discuss for the next three or four days .  It is so hard to tell, but you all have been good sports, except for one of you.  You know who you are--one.

[Panthers Rhule]

21 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I appreciate the fact that everyone knows that I am just throwing stuff against the wall to give us something to lock horns about or discuss for the next three or four days .  It is so hard to tell, but you all have been good sports, except for one of you.  You know who you are--one.

No thank you. I like posts like this and conversations like this. The posts here have been very enjoyable. It's like the conversations you can have at your favorite Panther's bar just having a beer, some food and fan talk with the guys just wanting to have some fun in the afternoon with the boys before returning home to the family. 

[RevJ]

5 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Fitterer and Brady started talking about the Panthers drafts, where we have been averaging about 6.7 (going from memory) selections per year.  The average NFL team (with comp picks has 8.1)  They are concerned with the lack of draft capital, and then they mentioned trading back.  Only twice in their history have the Panthers traded DOWN in the first round.  Unless Sewell, Pitts (maybe) or Fields is there, I see us trading down.

But that is not what I gleaned from that comment--what it means to me/us?  We are being driven by analytics for perhaps the first time ever. 

Each year, we look at the turnover margin, and that does not really tell the whole story.  A better stat is "3 and out."  The average NFL team has 12 drives per game.  Think of a gunslinger with 6 bullets in his first half revolver and six in his second half revolver.

Yes, turnovers are great for the defense if we are getting turnovers, but three and outs are far too problematic for us.  Last year, we were +1 in the turnover margin.  Not good enough to overcome the "three and out" problem. So if we are really into analytics and finding ways to help our offense, we should start with a defense that gives them an extra bullet.  Because if the Panthers get 13 drives per game, the opposition then gets 11.  If most games are won by less than a TD and the average drive is worth nearly 2 points, then nearly 4 points would have won or gone into overtime 4 times last season.  If we won 3, the team would have won 8 games---all because we can't get off the damn field.

Then there is the "average field position" statistic that is huge.  A good defense is like hitting from the ladies tees in golf vs. hitting from the pro tees.  Huge difference.  Why?  The average drive (remember, there are 12 on average) is 30.1 yards per drive.  So if we are starting our average drive from the 20, we are punting.  If we are starting our average drive from the 30, we are at least getting a field goal opportunity, albeit from 57 yard attempt.  But kickers are much better than they once were, completing about 60% of attempts from 50+ yards.  So, forgetting TDs, if your team gets 3 first downs, they are likely to be kicking a field goal that gives them a 60% chance of scoring 3 points.  If that happens on half the positions, then that equates to about 10 points per game if your field position is 10 yards better on average than getting the ball at the 20.

 

So what does this all mean?  A good defense is your best offense.  In 2020, the Panthers had below a 39% third down conversion rate on offense, they were ranked 24th of 32.  On defense, they were ranked 31st in the NFL in conversion rates for opponents on third down, failing to get off the field nearly 50% of the time (49.25%).  That means the Panthers were converting on third downs in the bottom 25% of the league, and they were nearly last in defending other teams from converting on third down.

In other words,  in 2020, the Panthers got first downs on 76 of 195 third downs, while opponents got first downs on 98 of 199 third down opportunities.  So since we had nearly an equal number of third downs as our opponents in 2020, we converted on 22 fewer, or gave up 22 more. That is the equivalent of 1.375 possessions per game, better field position for the opponent--so it increases their likelihood for scoring for the other team and decreases your offenses chance to score. So in other words, we were giving the opposition the equivalent of an extra drive and a third per game than our offense. 

So we can build the offense if we want with a tackle and WR but that does not get the D off the field-- what kinds of plays are usually run on third down?  (Hint: PASS plays).  On third down is when you are more likely to attach the defenses' weakness.  In this case---CB.  So we need to get off the field and we need turnovers. We need an extra bullet, not a missing bullet.

A #1 Shutdown, in your face CB is perhaps a bigger need than LT.  That makes Bouye and Jackson better because they get lesser WRs.  Brady and Ryan etc. can't go to the #1 WR who is being guarded by Jackson or rookie Pride with his 32 yard cushion because the S was cheating toward the #1 WR to help "take the bait" Jackson.  No---it helps us improve, and along with Reddick and Burns and YGM---#1 CB is a MUST.

But what about LT?  They are still important, but only when we have the ball.  This draft has smart, plug and play LTs when we draft in round 2.

And yes, we need to covert on third downs, and a third dangerous WR would make that happen.  Again, if we can move a little back, grab a top CB, move back up after grabbing a plug and play LT, and take a game breaking WR, I can do with Arnold and Sullivan and Thomas at TE for now.''

 

FOLKS I am a researcher and the one thing everyone knows:  If you aren't making data-informed decisions, you are making stupid or blind decisions.  We see the symptoms of the problem and not the entire problem.  From this analytical perspective, getting off the field on third down gives the Brady Bunch more opportunities to score--but to do that, you need the ball.  Who gives up the third down plays? CBs with cushions.  We are the 31st worst team in the league, failing to get off the field on about half of the third downs.  THAT is A HUGE PROBLEM.

So don't boo and kick things if we draft Surtain or Horn.  Understand it.

 

[jayboogieman]

4 hours ago, 45catfan said:

If we trade back with Sewell still there, I can't say the same.

If Sewell is there and they trade back, they're idiots.

4 hours ago, iamhubby1 said:

 

I think the trade down has gained some speed lately. Getting extra draft capital would help this team out tremendously. 

 

The 2 nickles over 1 dime paradigm.

Depends on the value of the coins. Sometimes that 1 dime is a lot more valuable than 2 nickels. Sewell(dime) would be more valuable than two lesser talents(nickels) since he is an elite prospect in the draft and at a position of a long running need.

3 hours ago, Pup McBarky said:

I'm fine with taking a CB in the first, but only if it's Horn. I think Surtain is gonna be okay, but not the shutdown guy some believe he is.

There really aren't any true shutdown corners anymore. The rules just don't allow it.