Analytics that will shape Draft Strategy or my name isn't MHS831

[*FreeFua*]

11 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

OK, FUA, I will bet that we draft a CB in round 1 if Sewell is off the board---at #8 or later---(damn I wish I had not started that betting thread).

This draft is already getting crazy, my friend. 

No I agree that CB is in play at 8.

I’ll give you Surtain and I’ll take Horn.

But yes, a few others need to be off the board. 
 

So we’ll just bet that if it comes down to CB at 8, you’re betting it’s Surtain and I’m betting it’s Horn... sound good?

[MHS831]

6 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

No I agree that CB is in play at 8.

I’ll give you Surtain and I’ll take Horn.

But yes, a few others need to be off the board. 
 

So we’ll just bet that if it comes down to CB at 8, you’re betting it’s Surtain and I’m betting it’s Horn... sound good?

Yes.  You are on.

[Panthers Rhule]

11 minutes ago, iamhubby1 said:

 

That short yardage package was no where near a thing of beauty, that's for sure. And it definitely played a role in our lack of point production. 

 

IMO, I would put it on a par with our Defenses inability to get off the field as equal partners in our abysmal 5-11 record.

 

Fix one and we are better. Fix both and we can be competitive. 

Absolutely. We all saw it time and time again. It was a combination of things.

 

For the record, I definitely want us being better than 5-11 every season but considering our circumstances last season i.e. completely rookie staff, bad roster, covid protocols etc., I wouldn't call that season abysmal as we were much better than I e3xpected us to be all things considered. 

 

100% agree. I think that's what the point of the discussion is really about. We all agree we need to fix both things but the question is it which order in the draft? Can we improve LT more at 39 than what we have at CB at 39? Are the added picks worth any difference between what we think to be available? It's about total value. Elie LT + good CB or Shut Down CB + good LT + good WR/TE and maybe a pick in 2022.

 

[45catfan]

29 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

You do understand that the concept was analytics, right?  They are not fortune cookies--they are in-depth, statistical reasons that help you see what you think you know or thought you knew.   Now how many CBs in the second and beyond are #1 CBs?  I think another CB is not a need--we have 5-6 who can make a roster.  We need that guy---and that is stated.

 

No, I did not say I think it, but it would not surprise me

 

OK, FUA, I will bet that we draft a CB in round 1 if Sewell is off the board---at #8 or later---(damn I wish I had not started that betting thread).

This draft is already getting crazy, my friend. 

That's the reason I go straight to the summery/conclusion with reading the entire report; I have little patience for all minutiae!   I enjoy cooking and eating a sausage and could care less about the process in which it was made.

Edited April 25, 2021 by 45catfan

[iamhubby1]

12 minutes ago, Panthers Rhule said:

Absolutely. We all saw it time and time again. It was a combination of things.

 

For the record, I definitely want us being better than 5-11 every season but considering our circumstances last season i.e. completely rookie staff, bad roster, covid protocols etc., I wouldn't call that season abysmal as we were much better than I e3xpected us to be all things considered. 

 

100% agree. I think that's what the point of the discussion is really about. We all agree we need to fix both things but the question is it which order in the draft? Can we improve LT more at 39 than what we have at CB at 39? Are the added picks worth any difference between what we think to be available? It's about total value. Elie LT + good CB or Shut Down CB + good LT + good WR/TE and maybe a pick in 2022.

 

 

Yea, abysmal may have been a tad harsh. How about extremely frustrating?

 

I would think that if we pass on Fields, Sewel, or Slater at 8, then it is probably a CB at say 15ish. Then LT at 39. Not saying that is what I want, cuz normally I don't get what I want. But this may be how things work out.

 

Normally I would go ahead and take the QB, or franchise type LT at 8. But this year is different. I may just go with the trade back and grab more assets. 

 

Unless they some how mess this up. Then it wasn't my idea.

[pantherclaw]

Gotta stop drives/get turnovers, and gotta sustain drives.   This is absolutely what killed us last season. 

Losing CMC was big. Davis played as well as we could have hoped, but it just isn't the same. 

Defense was just young.  

Improve those issues, and our competitive group becomes much harder to beat. 

[pantherclaw]

I don't think we'll get a dancing partner to trade back. Only the Pat's would.make sense, and they have zero ties/relationships with our front office. They honestly don't need us to trade up. They can easily trade right in front of us. 

[TheSpecialJuan]

 

[Soul Rebel]

Agree that either Surtain or Horn should be in play at 8 IF Sewell and Pitts are gone.....maybe Slater too. Either of these two corners should give us the best corner we've had. Gamble and Bradberry come to mind, but I think these two can be better than them.

However, I would also argue just as strongly for Slater at 8 and Samuel Jr./Stokes at 39. Stokes is a player I'm really high on and can see him being a beast as a boundary corner. 

[MHS831]

28 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

That's the reason I go straight to the summery/conclusion with reading the entire report; I have little patience for all minutiae!   I enjoy cooking and eating a sausage and could care less about the process in which it was made.

me too, but i love the chance to dig deep for understanding--I really did this for me, and then shared it. 

[MHS831]

3 minutes ago, Soul Rebel said:

Agree that either Surtain or Horn should be in play at 8 IF Sewell and Pitts are gone.....maybe Slater too. Either of these two corners should give us the best corner we've had. Gamble and Bradberry come to mind, but I think these two can be better than them.

However, I would also argue just as strongly for Slater at 8 and Samuel Jr./Stokes at 39. Stokes is a player I'm really high on and can see him being a beast as a boundary corner. 

Love to see us drop back to 15 or so and take horn or farley....doubt Surtain lasts that long--then move back up and get the T--I think Cosmi (Tex) slides, but I am not sure I want him--mixed reviews.

[45catfan]

2 minutes ago, Soul Rebel said:

Agree that either Surtain or Horn should be in play at 8 IF Sewell and Pitts are gone.....maybe Slater too. Either of these two corners should give us the best corner we've had. Gamble and Bradberry come to mind, but I think these two can be better than them.

However, I would also argue just as strongly for Slater at 8 and Samuel Jr./Stokes at 39. Stokes is a player I'm really high on and can see him being a beast as a boundary corner. 

I don't think there is a drastic difference in the top few CBs and personally feel it's a slight reach if we take one at #8.  I makes little sense to me.  Get the LT in the first and circle back in the second round for the corner.

[MHS831]

48 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Yes.  You are on.

 

55 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

No I agree that CB is in play at 8.

I’ll give you Surtain and I’ll take Horn.

But yes, a few others need to be off the board. 
 

So we’ll just bet that if it comes down to CB at 8, you’re betting it’s Surtain and I’m betting it’s Horn... sound good?

The hard part about this?  I was born in Columbia when my dad was a 20-year old TE for the Gamecocks.  Grew up pulling for them.  I do like Surtain better, but I always have a bit of a hesitation for Bama DBs and OL-

[Panthers Rhule]

8 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Yes.  You are on.

 

14 minutes ago, *FreeFua* said:

No I agree that CB is in play at 8.

I’ll give you Surtain and I’ll take Horn.

But yes, a few others need to be off the board. 
 

So we’ll just bet that if it comes down to CB at 8, you’re betting it’s Surtain and I’m betting it’s Horn... sound good?

This is an interesting bet to me. I like contemplating scenarios and possibilities in general and I have contemplated this exact decision. Surtain vs Horn. It's an interesting one as Surtain is a little bigger but Horn is a little faster. Surtain is more developed at this point but has been coached at the highest level his whole life. I read an interesting take on this and it did make some sense. Basically, Surtain has already been coached up. That doesn't mean he can't learn something new nor improve on what he's learned but you shouldn't expect him to be much more than what he is now. (Which is a great CB by the way), Horn has surely had great mentors in football and good trainers through his Father's connections as well I'd imagine. Both of these kids were raised to be football players and had the resources to receive the best opportunities. Can Horn be coached higher? Can Surtain continue to grow? Those are good questions and only time will tell but both appear to be solid players with great NFL potential. Personally, I think we may prefer Horn as I think he'd fit Snow's defense better.