Updated Expansion Protection Projection Conjecture (The Neddenning)

[Stumpy]

From Canes Country...

Before we get started, a few reminders on the expansion draft’s rules, which will be the same as 2017:

NHL teams can protect either seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or eight skaters (regardless of position) and a goalie

All players with no movement clauses must be protected unless they agree to waive it

First and second-year players and unsigned draft picks are exempt and don’t count towards protection totals

Every team must expose one defenseman who is under contract in 2021-22 and played in at least 40 games in 20-21 or 70 total games the last two seasons (wouldn’t be stunned if those numbers get adjusted with a likely shortened season) and two forwards that meet the same requirement

Every team must expose one goaltender who is under contract for 2021-22 or a restricted free agent (an RFA goalie must receive a qualifying offer prior to the expansion draft)

Aight aight... just the juicy stuff...

Forwards

Original list: Jordan Staal (NMC), Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov, Vincent Trocheck, Warren Foegele, Morgan Geekie

New list: Jordan Staal (NMC), Sebastian, Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter, Jesper Fast

Defensemen

Original list: Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton

New list: Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton OR Jake Bean

Goalie

Original list: Alex Nedeljkovic

New list: Alex Nedeljkovic

Fine, you're right. We all know why you really clicked the thread...

*narrator voice* He played his way into the team’s long-term plans, and I now very much expect this to be Nedeljkovic. The NHL’s Rookie of the Month for March has been superb this season, with a 10-4-2 record, .930 save percentage, 1.92 goals-against average and three shutouts. As long as Nedeljkovic plays two more games this season, he’ll be an RFA after the year, and qualifying and protecting him should be an easy decision.

It's a very good read. Definitely worth the click. I never would've guessed the goalie they have us exposing...

[Stumpy]

I'm fine with exposing one of Bean or Skjei to keep our young forwards together. 

The first 4 spots are no brainers. Trocheck has played himself into that conversation. The last 2 forward spots are where the decisions really start.

Initially, I'd keep Foegle over Fast just for all the Mclovin memes.

But, Ole Jesper's been growin on me like kudzu on cars.

Nino looks like everything has finally clicked, for good, for real this time, again.

And then you have Geekie. Say what you will about the kid. But, you don't survive childhood with the name Morgan Geekie without being one tough sumbitch.

[Harbingers]

I still want to know what the definition of "First and second-year players and unsigned draft picks are exempt and don’t count towards protection totals" is. Cause the official language differed from the 2017 draft on nhl.com.

[Floppin]

That Foegle/Fast decision is a toughy. McLovin has been playing really really well the last month.

[Rocky Davis]

I think age may decide the Foegle/Fast decision.

Of course we have a terrific farm system so we may want to protect a great locker room presence like Fast!

Basically....who knows???