MHS's RESEARCHED, HANDMADE Draft Prediction

[MHS831]

23 hours ago, Basbear said:

Lots of work and effort went into this post. 

You know my mind has changed on some of these. and there is no way to predict.  the CB in the third is way crazy, but if I am right, you all will NEVER hear the end of it.

[Basbear]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

You know my mind has changed on some of these. and there is no way to predict.  the CB in the third is way crazy, but if I am right, you all will NEVER hear the end of it.

I think Toney is going top 16, about 90% sure. Its the draft, each year surprises happen and no one can predict what happens starting in the 20s. Most teams seems to penalize opt-out, but that means value picks will last til 7th round. If you hit on any pick past the first round, bragg ALL you want. 

[MHS831]

47 minutes ago, Basbear said:

I think Toney is going top 16, about 90% sure. Its the draft, each year surprises happen and no one can predict what happens starting in the 20s. Most teams seems to penalize opt-out, but that means value picks will last til 7th round. If you hit on any pick past the first round, bragg ALL you want. 

I see the dropoff in the first around 12-13, and it stays pretty level through mid second.  Of course, that could be my perspective and not fact.  They rarely diverge, however.  The secret is to do about 40 mocks, and then when you find one that hits on a few correctly, whip that one out.

[Basbear]

2 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

I see the dropoff in the first around 12-13, and it stays pretty level through mid second.  Of course, that could be my perspective and not fact.  They rarely diverge, however.  The secret is to do about 40 mocks, and then when you find one that hits on a few correctly, whip that one out.

Talent wise I agree with you- 1------2-4-7-14----15-40 rough numbers.

Ive done a few and seen the leaders mocks, 7 or 8 is the high mark for correct name to correct teams. Everyone gets the 1-5 right, then the guessing starts. By the 20s its dart board time and unless you have a real inside source its near impossible to pick. The players has to be available too, I hated my outcomes and let others have at it. 

[MHS831]

35 minutes ago, Basbear said:

Talent wise I agree with you- 1------2-4-7-14----15-40 rough numbers.

Ive done a few and seen the leaders mocks, 7 or 8 is the high mark for correct name to correct teams. Everyone gets the 1-5 right, then the guessing starts. By the 20s its dart board time and unless you have a real inside source its near impossible to pick. The players has to be available too, I hated my outcomes and let others have at it. 

One trade can screw up your entire mock.

[shaqattaq]

On 4/18/2021 at 11:17 PM, MHS831 said:

Cincinnati is going Chase, WR, and they will count on the OT depth to get the T they need after they get the player their QB wants. 

This is my prediction as well, especially since Burrow requested him by name. I've been saying that we likely draft a LT at #39, so no reason they can't at #38.

[shaqattaq]

@MHS831, #'s 35, 37, and 38 really hurt my feelings, Mills, Freirmuth, & Leatherwood I want all 3 at 39. Love Sewell though.

[Basbear]

2 hours ago, shaqattaq said:

This is my prediction as well, especially since Burrow requested him by name. I've been saying that we likely draft a LT at #39, so no reason they can't at #38.

Thats one of my reasons for getting a LT at 8th. If not panthers would have to get ahead of too many teams starting in the second round......just too risky at that point. I say this after weeks ago being 50-Pitts, 50-Sewell, 50-Chase.

Seeing MHS roster thread slap sense into me too. OL needs to be the focus 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and maybe 5th. I feel they also like Slater more than Sewell too, Id prefer Sewell....I just have to get over the arm deal.  

[shaqattaq]

17 hours ago, Basbear said:

Thats one of my reasons for getting a LT at 8th. If not panthers would have to get ahead of too many teams starting in the second round......just too risky at that point. I say this after weeks ago being 50-Pitts, 50-Sewell, 50-Chase.

Seeing MHS roster thread slap sense into me too. OL needs to be the focus 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and maybe 5th. I feel they also like Slater more than Sewell too, Id prefer Sewell....I just have to get over the arm deal.  

I agree 150%

[shaqattaq]

17 hours ago, Basbear said:

Thats one of my reasons for getting a LT at 8th. If not panthers would have to get ahead of too many teams starting in the second round......just too risky at that point. I say this after weeks ago being 50-Pitts, 50-Sewell, 50-Chase.

Seeing MHS roster thread slap sense into me too. OL needs to be the focus 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and maybe 5th. I feel they also like Slater more than Sewell too, Id prefer Sewell....I just have to get over the arm deal.  

I would NOT be opposed to trading back into the teens before we get our LT. Plenty of talent in the later 1st to early second. plus an extra round 2 pick will help out a lot with our other needs.

[KatsAzz]

A big shout out to MHS831 for the research and time he put into his great post.

If Kadarius Toney,Florida WR is gone when we pick 2nd, I like Anthony Schwartz Auburn WR or Tyson Campbell Georgia CB/S.

3rd Rd i like Walker Little Stanford OT and/or Royce Newman Miss. G/T.

[Agent Blue]

OP that is not the type of QB bill wants.

 

[Basbear]

8 hours ago, shaqattaq said:

I would NOT be opposed to trading back into the teens before we get our LT. Plenty of talent in the later 1st to early second. plus an extra round 2 pick will help out a lot with our other needs.

Thats also very risky....Think of it like this. How many day 1 LT starters are there in this draft.......think about it...........ok.... now the number you came up with, is it wise move much form 8? I dont know your number, but mine is like 2.5 *day 1 LT starter*. Im about 98.7590% sure none will be there after 14th where the viking pick. Chargers are 13th, need a LT, AND they could move up. OT group is sorta deep, but not in day 1 LT starters. I believe most huddlers would agree, panthers need a starting LT, well 8 maybe the last hope for that......Sewell and Slater could get drafted before 8 also, then you are forced to take darrisaw at 8th which Im not against even right now. 

[MHS831]

8 hours ago, KatsAzz said:

A big shout out to MHS831 for the research and time he put into his great post.

If Kadarius Toney,Florida WR is gone when we pick 2nd, I like Anthony Schwartz Auburn WR or Tyson Campbell Georgia CB/S.

3rd Rd i like Walker Little Stanford OT and/or Royce Newman Miss. G/T.

My third rounder was just a reach, but he was good at the SR bowl and I have seen him as high as in the 70s on big boards.  I have a feeling that 2 Stanford Cardinal players will be huge surprises and great values--QB Mills and Walker Little LT and both are day 2 picks.