Breer goes deep on the Darnold trade

[t96]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Read the story. They initiated the trade talks long before that trade happened, and had Douglas been more willing to move forward it likely would have gotten done sooner.

I did. Them doing initial due diligence to prepare for a potential plan C or D is a lot different than us being locked in on Darnold as a top option to solve our QB problem -- which wasn't the case. Watson/Stafford were plan A, draft plan B (which we apparently determined was a too expensive plan before the draft) and Darnold plan C. 

 

It's also been reported no other teams were seriously in on Darnold at the time we traded for him, we should've known that and just kept monitoring him while waiting to see what happens in the draft. There was no reason for a sense of urgency to get Darnold before the draft.

Panthers may like Fields at 8 but right now think that we have absolutely no chance to get him there (which is probably correct). Why not let that play out first? Does the team know something for certain that we don't know about the QBs going in the top of the draft? Maybe, but it also can't be 100% certain because teams hold their cards close to their chest... If the seemingly impossible does happen and there's a QB we love sitting there at 8 (because Niners love a different QB than we want and Falcons, etc. go other positions/no trade ups), whether that's Lance or Fields or whoever, it's really not ideal to have needlessly given up fairly significant draft capital for a QB who won't have a realistic chance to be the long term starter here.

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, t96 said:

I did. Them doing initial due diligence to prepare for a potential plan C or D is a lot different than us being locked in on Darnold as a top option to solve our QB problem -- which wasn't the case. Watson/Stafford were plan A, draft plan B (which we apparently determined was a too expensive plan before the draft) and Darnold plan C. 

 

It's also been reported no other teams were seriously in on Darnold at the time we traded for him, we should've known that and just kept monitoring him while waiting to see what happens in the draft. There was no reason for a sense of urgency to get Darnold before the draft.

Panthers may like Fields at 8 but right now think that we have absolutely no chance to get him there (which is probably correct). Why not let that play out first? Does the team know something for certain that we don't know about the QBs going in the top of the draft? Maybe, but it also can't be 100% certain because teams hold their cards close to their chest... If the seemingly impossible does happen and there's a QB we love sitting there at 8 (because Niners love a different QB than we want and Falcons, etc. go other positions/no trade ups), whether that's Lance or Fields or whoever, it's really not ideal to have needlessly given up fairly significant draft capital for a QB who won't have a realistic chance to be the long term starter here.

Reading your spin on a couple of things makes me doubt you actually read the full article, but accepting the premise...

Your ideas, especially about the 49ers trade, are more fitting of this being a spur of the moment thing rather than something that was months in the making.

I get that most people's ideas of how/why somebody did something tend to revolve around "well, that's how I would have done it", but sometimes it's better to read what actually happened

[Moo Daeng]

Just to point out Darnold had a higher draft prospect grade from the same sources than anyone but Lawrence.  The spike in demand demand for QBs doesn't make these prospects any better than they are.

[NanuqoftheNorth]

The Darnold trade is already paying dividends.  Other teams can no longer peg the Panthers first round pick.  More teams, not less, should be interested in trading picks w/Carolina for their preferred player at 8.   

TLDR:  Panthers are now sitting in the catbird seat thanks to the Jets trade.

[OldhamA]

1 hour ago, t96 said:

My question is, why not wait to trade for Sam until after seeing what happens with the QBs in the draft first?

Probably because they like him more than Fields / Lance.

[trueblade]

1 hour ago, jayboogieman said:

Fields and Lance are huge question marks too. The Panthers have a chance to take an elite LT prospect. They need to take that chance to protect Sam or anyone else they put in at QB.

This year's draft is deep at OT. You can get a starter in round 2. Next year's draft look is be relatively sparse on QB talent. If Fields hits his ceiling, you'd really regret not taking him. Lance is much more of a gamble, but I'd take Fields if he falls to 8. I also think that's it is incredibly unlikely that Fields is there at 8. My nightmare scenario is we get to watch him become a star in Atlanta. 

[trueblade]

49 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Reading your spin on a couple of things makes me doubt you actually read the full article, but accepting the premise...

Your ideas, especially about the 49ers trade, are more fitting of this being a spur of the moment thing rather than something that was months in the making.

I get that most people's ideas of how/why somebody did something tend to revolve around "well, that's how I would have done it", but sometimes it's better to read what actually happened

Their initial move was to try to move up to 3, but they didn't like the price MIA wanted. Based on what SF paid, I'm kind of glad Fitt decided not to.

It begs the question, though. Who were they targeting at 3? What if that player happens to be there at 6, or 7, and they can move up for a much cheaper price than what it would have taken to get to 3? Or what if by some chance he's there at 8?

[MechaZain]

Prime sports journalism right here. My takeaways:

- Surprised that they decided against trading up early on, good insight into Fitter’s mentality. 

- I get the impression that they aren’t interested in Lance at 8.

- They aren’t completely sold on Fields either but haven’t ruled him out and they don’t expect him to fall anyway. He’ll be a game time decision, and with Darnold they may well pass on him for a top non-QB even if he is there. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by MechaZain

[SmokinwithWilly]

47 minutes ago, trueblade said:

This year's draft is deep at OT. You can get a starter in round 2. Next year's draft look is be relatively sparse on QB talent. If Fields hits his ceiling, you'd really regret not taking him. Lance is much more of a gamble, but I'd take Fields if he falls to 8. I also think that's it is incredibly unlikely that Fields is there at 8. My nightmare scenario is we get to watch him become a star in Atlanta. 

It's a deep class, but if you have Sewell or Slater there and they are your highest rated players, you make that move. I think Fitts and Co genuinely believe that they got a talent equal to any of the QBs after the top 2. Taking emotion out of it, getting that kind of value for a 2nd round pick is insane. Now build a wall in front of him and let Brady scheme his ass off. 

Personally I want to see 2 of our first 3 picks on the oline. Tackle in the 1st, DB in 2nd and a G/C in 3. 

[jayboogieman]

1 hour ago, trueblade said:

This year's draft is deep at OT. You can get a starter in round 2. Next year's draft look is be relatively sparse on QB talent. If Fields hits his ceiling, you'd really regret not taking him. Lance is much more of a gamble, but I'd take Fields if he falls to 8. I also think that's it is incredibly unlikely that Fields is there at 8. My nightmare scenario is we get to watch him become a star in Atlanta. 

Do you just want a guy that can start or do you want an LT that can protect the QB at an elite level for a decade or so barring injury? If there is a big drop off in talent between the rest of the first and second round tackles, other teams are going to be jumping on those guys too. By not addressing the position when they have a chance could be a huge mistake if there is a run on tackles later in the first and into the beginning of the second round. From what has been reported, the FO believes they have addressed the QB position with Darnold. Fields to Atlanta makes a lot of sense since he is a Georgia dude, but they may decide to reload with Ryan one more time before pulling the trigger on his successor.

[thefuzz]

57 minutes ago, SmokinwithWilly said:

It's a deep class, but if you have Sewell or Slater there and they are your highest rated players, you make that move. I think Fitts and Co genuinely believe that they got a talent equal to any of the QBs after the top 2. Taking emotion out of it, getting that kind of value for a 2nd round pick is insane. Now build a wall in front of him and let Brady scheme his ass off. 

Personally I want to see 2 of our first 3 picks on the oline. Tackle in the 1st, DB in 2nd and a G/C in 3. 

100% agree.

I keep seeing over and over that Darnold would rank 3rd on a lot of boards if you threw him into this mix of QB's.  If Fitt and Rhule saw the same thing, and concluded that the talent could be gotten for a 2nd while keeping your current top 10 pick and 2nd rounder....

I mean, I'm glad we missed on Stafford if we were going to have to pony up another 1st...I'm glad Houston didn't pick up the phone...this was plan C, but we are on plan C, not because of us, but because LA doesn't care about 1st and Watson couldn't keep his pants on.

[trueblade]

2 minutes ago, jayboogieman said:

Do you just want a guy that can start or do you want an LT that can protect the QB at an elite level for a decade or so barring injury? If there is a big drop off in talent between the rest of the first and second round tackles, other teams are going to be jumping on those guys too. By not addressing the position when they have a chance could be a huge mistake if there is a run on tackles later in the first and into the beginning of the second round. From what has been reported, the FO believes they have addressed the QB position with Darnold. Fields to Atlanta makes a lot of sense since he is a Georgia dude, but they may decide to reload with Ryan one more time before pulling the trigger on his successor.

OTs are far from the reliable can't miss prospects they used to be. It's still a projection for both the LT and QB (just like every rookie ever drafted). Sewell/Slater could very well be "an LT that can protect the QB at an elite level for a decade or so barring injury". I'd be thrilled with picking either. They could also struggle to adapt to the pro game and have to move to guard or really not work out and be out of the league in 4 years. All of those are within the range of outcomes.

But man, if we're going to talk best case scenarios, and Fields is there, and he hits his best scenario? Wow, you're talkig about an elite QB who can throw for throw with the very best and make us playoff contenders year in and year out. That's Fields best case scenario. 

There's simply a much higher upside to being right about Fields, especially when we may be able to get a very good OT later in the draft, and given how barren next year's draft class at QB looks.

[jayboogieman]

3 minutes ago, trueblade said:

There's simply a much higher upside to being right about Fields, especially when we may be able to get a very good OT later in the draft, and given how barren next year's draft class at QB looks.

And they very well might miss out on a tackle if they don't take one when they have the chance. There is a chance the Panthers might have their choice of every tackle in the draft at 8. If that happens, they need to take whichever tackle they like best. There is no need to have a young QB if they can't protect him.

There will be a QB that people don't think much of now that will rush up the draft boards during and after the college season. From what is being reported the Panthers think higher of Darnold than any QB in this class not named Wilson or Lawrence. They seem to think they have solved that issue this year. Time will tell if it is true or not.

[Basbear]

So Darnold was only the 25th option at QB for the panthers, hope that makes everyone super optimistic. Im not giving Rhule and crew a pass on Teddy or Sam if he flounders.