Sam Darnold Game Winning Drives / Comebacks vs Teddy B.

[EgoDogg]

As we all know, Teddy is... not very good with the game on the line. Now, the Jets don't win many games (1 winning season the past decade, and last playoff appearance was 2010), so Carolina looks like a dynasty in comparison.

Decided to take a peek at the 4th quarter comebacks of the two. I assumed Teddy would have multiple times the amount over Darnold due to the fact that he has started 49 games over his career, and played in 59. But it's crazy how close it is, and does more to verify Teddy is who he is.

Teddy Bridgewater (49 career starts, 58 games played):

• 5 Career fourth quarter comebacks
• 6 Career game winning drives

Sam Darnold (38 career starts / games played):

• 3 Career fourth quarter comebacks
• 4 Career game winning drives

I know Teddy was 0-for-8 this past season, so likely had many many many more opportunities in his career for these comebacks. I don't know the percentage on Darnold, but he hasn't been given many opportunities to comeback / win those games. I was able to look at the games that they lost by 8 or less points however, and there are only 9 losses by 8 or less points. This is compared to 16 Losses by 8 or less points for Teddy.

Some dirty Analytics:

Teddy Bridgewater

• 6 Game Winning Drives, 16 losses by 8 points or less (27% Game Winning drive vs 8 or less point loss career (6 out of 22)
• 2 Game Winning Drives, 8 Losses by 8 or less last 2 seasons. 2-for-10 = 20% Win

Sam Darnold

• 4 Game Winning Drives, 9 losses by 8 points or less (30% Game Winning Drive vs 8 or less point loss (4 out of 13)
• 3 Game Winning Drives, 4 Losses by 8 or less last 2 seasons - 3-out-7 = 42% Win

Every 8 or less point loss likely didn't have a 4th quarter comeback scenario, and I don't know how to get that data, but in terms of winning when the game is on the line, Darnold has shown more in his short career than than Teddy on a MUCH LESS TALENTED / worse-coached team than Minnesota, New Orleans, and Carolina.

If these stats prove anything at all, it's that Darnold is at least a marginal upgrade with the game on the line. 

I just gave myself a headache. I hope this trade works out.

[t96]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DarnSa00/splits/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BridTe00/splits/

Scroll down to find their stats in the 4th quarter, and when leading/trailing with 4 or 2 min to go... It ain't pretty at all for Darnold. 1 TD, 7 picks when trailing with 4 or less minutes to go.

 

Quote

Split	Value	Cmp	Att	Inc	Cmp%	Yds	TD	1D	Int	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D
Game Situation	Leading, < 2 min to go	0	0			0	0	0	0		0	0			22	-26	-1.2	0	0
	Leading, < 4 min to go	4	8	4	50.00	40	0	3	0	64.6	0	0	5.0	5.00	23	-27	-1.2	0	0
	Trailing, < 2 min to go	32	72	40	44.44	423	1	17	4	45.1	7	-40	5.9	3.65	3	29	9.7	0	1
	Trailing, < 4 min to go	62	124	62	50.00	677	1	28	7	45.7	12	-72	5.5	3.08	4	37	9.3	0	1

 

[EgoDogg]

2 minutes ago, t96 said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DarnSa00/splits/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BridTe00/splits/

Scroll down to find their stats in the 4th quarter, and when leading/trailing with 4 or 2 min to go... It ain't pretty at all for Darnold. 1 TD, 7 picks when trailing with 4 or less minutes to go.

Thanks @t96. This is the data I wish I knew how to find before making my post. Makes much of my post pretty much moot. Now they need to add a row for trailing by one score, >2/4 min to go. Trailing for the Jets is often 'let 'er rip and pray' time.

Edited April 6, 2021 by EgoDogg

[t96]

2 minutes ago, EgoDogg said:

Thanks @t96. This is the data I wish I knew how to find before making my post. Makes much of my post pretty much moot. Now they need to add a row for trailing by one score, >2/4 min to go. Trailing for the Jets is often 'let 'er rip and pray' time.

Yeah I don't think this tells the whole story. Teddy's career stats in 4th quarter/late in games are actually pretty good but we all saw how terrible he actually was in those situations last year. Plus often in those situations the other team knows you're passing and that combined with the terrible OL he had in NY and poor weapons made it a nearly impossible situation. We just gotta hope those factors along with coaching were the reason for his struggles there and not him just being bad.

[EgoDogg]

1 minute ago, t96 said:

Yeah I don't think this tells the whole story. Teddy's career stats in 4th quarter/late in games are actually pretty good but we all saw how terrible he actually was in those situations last year. Plus often in those situations the other team knows you're passing and that combined with the terrible OL he had in NY and poor weapons made it a nearly impossible situation. We just gotta hope those factors along with coaching were the reason for his struggles there and not him just being bad.

Exactly. If anything is exciting about this, it's the uncertainty around it all. How bad is/was Darnold? How much of it was the Jets? Gase? Lack of a real QB coach?

With Teddy, everyone knew what he is/was. With Darnold, it's extremely difficult to measure. But the risk feels very calculated, and it doesn't feel like we're mortgaging our Future on what-ifs (like trading up to #2, for example)

[Waldo]

We swapped a weak armed Teddy for a weak brained Sam. It's 2020 again, instead of saying we don't know what Teddy can do after years in the NFL we get to pretend we don't know what Sam can do after years in the NFL. It's the relying on a miracle version of roster management, again. 

[onmyown]

I don’t think it’s a dynasty in comparison. 3 winning seasons in a decade vs. 1.

I think the Jets (and Jags) are much more similar to the Panthers since inception than Panther fans are willing to admit as far as games won and winning season. In fact I’d argue they’re closer than any other team in the NFL since 95.

I suppose the super bowl appearances are the differences but the Jets made the conference 2 times and the Jags 3 times...

And the wins losses differences are marginal. So are amount of winning seasons. Panthers are almost always competitive every 4 years and then flop since existence. Jags and Jets have spurts. It’s odd to me how much our fanbase laughs at these two other teams...it’s really ironic.

I sidetracked but my point is to say he’ll do better here because the Jets were trash...compared to the Panthers you’re talking about trash that smells like poo and trash that is only moderately offending.

Edited April 6, 2021 by onmyown

[Waldo]

7 minutes ago, Trainwreck said:

I love Darnold 

[DeAngelo Beason]

If I were to boil Teddy's 4th quarter failures down to one thing, I'd say it's because he cannot hit the sideline route to save his life.  Can't get the clock stopped.  No zip to get the ball to the perimeter