PFF grade on throws past first read since 2019

[Sgt Schultz]

3 hours ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Just my opinion, but honestly Fields would be the slam dunk #1 QB in most other draft classes. This is just the best QB draft class in a loooooong time.

 

3 hours ago, Varking said:

I agree with this opinion. And a part of me thinks that around year 3-4 he might be the best QB in this class regardless. Just not drafted first. 

Neither of these things would surprise me one bit. 

Lance has the most potential, but is also the biggest risk.  Put him on the Jest and the odds are it is an epic fail. 

Wilson looks good, but his durability worries me.  Physically, Cam he is not. 

Lawrence's biggest concern is where he winds up.  The Jacksonville stables are not known for grooming thoroughbreds.  They are more known for turning thoroughbreds into plow horses.  Not as efficient at it as the Jest for that, but still.

If nothing else, Fields may have the best chance just because he is not immediately sentenced to a QB graveyard.  I think he has the talent, and if he is brought along on a sane timetable, he can do well.  Unfortunately, a lot of QBs drafted in the top 10, especially in the top 5, wind up in situations that the depth chart of Montana, Marino, and Brady would strike out.

[Khyber53]

16 hours ago, stbugs said:

Please, Lawrence’s go to WR this year was Amari Rodgers. Fields WR talent had been as good or better. Olave and Wilson will be drafted higher than any 2020 Clemson WR.

I don’t know why Lawrence is lumped into Jones” bucket of Waddle, Smith and Meche or Burrow of 2019 with Chase, Jefferson and Marshall.

Lawrence had Huggins and Ross as a freshman in 2018 and beat Tua, Jeudy, Waddle, Ruggs and Smith, but that’s not in this data. Ross didn’t play well in 2019 and didn’t play at all this past year.

Only Lance and Wilson had worse WRs than Lawrence this year and they didn’t play loaded Ohio State (twice) and LSU defensive backfields.

It feels weird defending him so much but people who think Clemson was loaded with WRs this year and even 2019 (Okudah took Higgins out of that game with an early hard shot) anywhere close to Jones just didn’t actually watch the games. Again, Fields in 2020 had as much WR talent as Lawrence did at any point in his career. I like Fields too, but neither of them come close to Tua, Jones and Burow in terms of legit NFL studs WR corps.

Thanks for the perspective. You make good points.

[Sgt Schultz]

16 hours ago, stbugs said:

This is another misnomer like Jones being the most cerebral/etc. Lawrence and Fields have huge ceilings. I think because Lance has been mocked to us he was given other accolades. Fields and Lawrence are extremely mobile and have definitely shown they are elite passers. Sometimes when they’ve been 1/2 since they were HS seniors (they were the top two ESPN prospects at any position), the new toy gets lauded as better because we’re so used to Fields and Lawrence being in the CFP every year.

Lance's upside is based on raw talent and the unknown.  His ceiling and floor would be better defined if we had more of a body of work to look at, especially if some part of that was against tougher competition (or perceived tougher competition).  Put him at Ole Miss or Wisconsin (for example) and both his ceiling and floor would be better known.

Raw QB talent in the hands of a good offensive coaching staff (dear gawd, not "Quarterback whisperers") who has the luxury of patience can yield huge results.  Trial by fire usually does not work in the NFL for raw prospects, unless the team is stacked.  There is a reason some NFL teams are notorious for swinging and missing on high first round QB selections, and it is not all on who they selected.  Most of the time, their development process is best defined as desperate.  Had Tom Brady been drafted by the Bengals or Browns, it is quite possible he would be a footnote.

As to your earlier post about the receivers each QB had available, I don't understand when Lawrence's receivers became among the upper crust of recent receiving corps, either.  They were more than adequate, but when the money games came they were generally not head and shoulders above who was on the other side of the field and against Bama or LSU they were not at all above.

[Sgt Schultz]

1 minute ago, stbugs said:

Lol. You had to have misread my post on this as I have been preaching this that Lawrence gets the assumption of having Jones’ WRs and in 2020 it wasn’t even close. Fine against FSU but even Higgins was easily checked by Okudah. I’m 100% in agreement with you on this.

I just don’t get the Lance has a higher ceiling than Fields or Lawrence. I don’t know Fields anywhere near as well as Lawrence and I’d say Lawrence has a Peyton Manning HOF ceiling. Not sure how you can get higher. Lawrence and Fields have the highest ceilings IMHO. Might not work out but their talent level has been well known since HS.

No, I read it right, I expressed my point poorly.  I am agreeing with you completely.  They were the better WR group on the field against a lot of teams, but not when the opponent was Auburn or Bama.  They were perhaps as good as Fields had, but that is about as much credit as I can give them as a group.

My belief on Lance's ceiling is that he is getting the same benefit of the doubt as any QB from a small, off-the-Radar school.  People question the level of competition, and rightly so as it is a concern.  His unknown is compounded because he has been even more invisible the past 12+ months.

The idea of taking him at #8 worries the heck out of me.  That high, I want somebody that can be on the field now, not in a year or two if we are lucky.  Based on what the projections are for who will do what on draft day, that boils down to Sewell, Slater, or Fields (in no particular order).  People can make the case for Pitts, but while TE is a position of need for us, I don't think it is as high on the list as those three.  I'd probably make a better case for a CB, ala Surtain, but there may be some good ones available later.

[mrcompletely11]

19 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

Lance's upside is based on raw talent and the unknown.  His ceiling and floor would be better defined if we had more of a body of work to look at, especially if some part of that was against tougher competition (or perceived tougher competition).  Put him at Ole Miss or Wisconsin (for example) and both his ceiling and floor would be better known.

Raw QB talent in the hands of a good offensive coaching staff (dear gawd, not "Quarterback whisperers") who has the luxury of patience can yield huge results.  Trial by fire usually does not work in the NFL for raw prospects, unless the team is stacked.  There is a reason some NFL teams are notorious for swinging and missing on high first round QB selections, and it is not all on who they selected.  Most of the time, their development process is best defined as desperate.  Had Tom Brady been drafted by the Bengals or Browns, it is quite possible he would be a footnote.

As to your earlier post about the receivers each QB had available, I don't understand when Lawrence's receivers became among the upper crust of recent receiving corps, either.  They were more than adequate, but when the money games came they were generally not head and shoulders above who was on the other side of the field and against Bama or LSU they were not at all above.

This is a great post.  I just think Lance has to go to a team that has a clear plan for him.  His lack of reps and game experience is going to be really hard to overcome.  2-3 year project at best.  I guess the staff figured we didnt have the time or stomach to figure that out

[JARROD]

Does PFF get a list of called plays, audibles and targets on each play, break down tape knowing these?

because otherwise you are just guessing reads and making poo up

[mrcompletely11]

1 minute ago, JARROD said:

Does PFF get a list of called plays, audibles and targets on each play, break down tape knowing these?

because otherwise you are just guessing reads and making poo up

Also saying bridgewater was better without looking at the oline and weapons and scheme is just lazy

[Agent Blue]

18 minutes ago, JARROD said:

Does PFF get a list of called plays, audibles and targets on each play, break down tape knowing these?

because otherwise you are just guessing reads and making poo up

this. 

literally impossible for outsiders to know what the read progressions were on each play.