PLAYING THE ODDS: An analytical look at the draft

[Panthers Rhule]

Every year we think about the draft and study players, read articles, watch mocks and form our opinions on who we, as fans, believe our team should pick and every year most are in someway disappointed or confused by picks that were made. The draft is not a science and no pick is ever a guaranteed success which makes it a gamble. Successful gamblers know how to play the odds. They know that not every hand is a winner and so they try to make the moves that give them the greatest chance of success. They also sometimes use "gut instinct" as many GMs do but these days more and more are starting to believe in the numbers and look for the moves that give them the greatest chance for success like any good gambler should.

 

I found a POST from a Chief's fan named WesternChief that was written 5 years ago. It uses data collected from Pro Football Reference from 2005 - 20014 to create a chart of player success percentages by position and which round those players were drafted in. I have not conformed that the information is 100% accurate and how much those results may have changed in the last 5 years as I'm not a numbers guy but everything looks about right based on quick google searches and so for the sake of the discussion, I will be using those results as a reasonable starting point and using that data and comparing it with our perceived needs before FA to determine what our draft picks should or might be to make us more successful and when we don't get the pick we wanted or understand why a pick was made then perhaps this is why.

 

TEAM NEEDS: QB, OL, TE, WR, RB, DL, LB, DB

Yes, we need one of everything at this point and hopefully that will have changed by draft time but for now we will look at every position as a possible selection but where? Where should we look to address these needs? To do this we will look at the percentile rate of success for each position in each round. Success is defined as being a starter for at least half of their career. It does not differentiate between superstars and average starters but any time you can land an average starter for you team in the draft then it is a successful pick.

 

OFFENCE

QB - Round 1 (63%), Round 2 (27%), Round 3 (17%) Round 4 (8%) Rounds 5 and 6 (0%) Round 7 (Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick)

A good gambler who wants to win a QB would definitely prefer to play in the first round which has the highest success rate by far. However the odds in the 2nd and even the 3rd are better than I had expected. I would also add though that at QB you want more than just an average starter and that must also be involved in the decision making process which is where "gut feeling" must come into play.

Does this mean that we should automatically assume QB is our first pick? Let's look at the results from every position in the first round:

Round 1 - OL (83%), LB (70%), TE (67%), DB (64%), QB (63%), WR (58%), RB (58%), DL (58%)

As you can see, the most successful Gambler would be all in on OL in the first as it is overwhelmingly the most successful pick year after year at a whopping 83%! OL is perhaps our biggest need depending on who you ask. Also, if that OL is actually an LT then the importance of the pick is increased substantially. DB is another position of need and the first round is a good place to get one. 

Another interesting take away is that gambling on a WR, RB or DE is not the most fundamentally sound decision as each have the lowest rates of success at 58%. We all know about the idea of not drafting an RB in the first but the same could be said of WR and DL. In the past, we have routinely drafted these very positions in the first and we have been quite lucky it would seem.

Okay, we have now narrowed it down to two obvious choices, QB or LT, right? Well let's have a closer look at OL then shall we?

 

OL - Round 1 (83%), Round 2 (70%), Round 3 (40%) Round 4 (29%) Rounds 5 and 6 (16%) Round 7 (9%)

Apparently, OL is the easiest position to evaluate as they are also the most successful picks in Round 2 with a rate equal to the 2nd most in Round 1. It's also still reasonable in the 3rd where they are again the most successful pick. We must keep in mind though that every team has 5 starting OL so there are a lot of them starting in the NFL. Drafting an OL in the first is as close to a guaranteed starter as you're going to get in the draft. However, it's still an excellent choice in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The biggest difference could be WHERE on the OL. Is an LT still there? Should we go for 2? LT is the first and IOL in the 2nd? Should we go LT then QB? Or QB then OL and hope for an LT? Perhaps it's "gut decision" time again. What about the rest of Round 2?

Round 2 - OL (70%), LB (55%), TE (50%), WR (49%), DB (46%), QB (27%), DL (26%), RB (25%)

Important details from this data is that OL remains the safest pick in round 2 and both LB and TE remain very strong. I should also state that TEs are rarely taken in the first round though. The average is a little less than 1 per draft. QB drops significantly and WR remains very close to the same. Teams looking for a #1 and definitely a #2 WR might be better off waiting until the 2nd. The rate of success is quite similar and they come with a cheaper price tag. DBs see a slight drop but are still decent selections. DL and RB see a decline and remain the most dangerous picks. A pro gambler would need to feel very strongly about the player to draft these positions early.

 

 

Next up we have TE. I personally feel like these guys are sometimes under valued. Having a good TE can open the middle of the field, get you 3rd downs and most importantly, TOUCH DOWNS! They usually don't put up as many numbers as the smaller peers on the outside but they can be even more important in crucial situations that change the flow of a game. As we have already seen, TEs have the 3rd highest success rate of any position in the 1st Round (67%), but should we consider one in the first? Likely not as QB is more important and OL is the safest. So where would a savvy gambler place his bets on winning one? Let's take a look.

 

 

TE - Round 1 (67%), Round 2 (50%), Round 3 (39%) Round 4 (33%) Round 5 (32%) Round 6 (26%) Round 7 (0%)

TEs have high success rates in round 1 but are more often selected later in the draft. The 2nd round is still an excellent round for your TE. However, rounds 3-5 have little difference and even round 6 has a 1 in 4 chance which is equal to a QB in the 2nd. If you really want a TE you should draft him before round 7 though. How do they compare to other position in those rounds?

Round 3 - OL (40%), TE (39%), LB (34%), DL (27%), WR (25%), DB (24%), QB (17%), RB (16%)

Round 4 - DL (37%), TE (33%), OL (29%), LB (16%), WR (12%), DB (11%), (RB 11%), QB (8%)

Round 5 - TE (32%), DB (17%), WR (16%), OL (16%), DL (13%), RB (9%), LB (4%), QB (BACK UPS ONLY)

Round 6 - TE (26%), OL (16%), DL (13%), WR (9%), DB (8%), RB (6%), LB (5%), QB (BACK UPS ONLY)

In conclusion, while a TE can be valuable asset, it is also more of a luxury for teams that already have players at more important positions. A team who would like a TE but has other more important needs might consider using a pick in either rounds 3-5 or even 6 every season until they get their man. TEs are found at a high rate compared to other positions in each and every round so teams can always take a shot for 1 wherever in the draft.

 

 

WR - Round 1 (58%), Round 2 (49%), Round 3 (25%) Round 4 (12%) Rounds 5 (16%) Round 6 (9%) Round 7 (5%)

Surprisingly to me, WRs are one of the more dangerous picks to make in the first round. Perhaps because of the allure of incredible speed or athleticism blinds GMs to really see their skills properly or that they have been able to use those traits to mask their faults. Successful franchises must be able to hit on their first round picks which make WRs risky there. The 2nd round has almost the same rate of success and ranks much higher against other positions.

Round 2 - OL (70%), LB (55%), TE (50%), WR (49%), DB (46%), QB (27%), DL (26%), RB (25%)

Most WRs are drafted in the 3rd round though but only with 25% success which is in the middle. The 5th round (16%) actually does better than the 4th (12%) and ranks higher compared to their positions making it perhaps the best round to take a shot to add depth and maybe find your 3 or 4 wideout. It's also a good place to look for ST value.

Round 5 - TE (32%), DB (17%), WR (16%), OL (16%), DL (13%), RB (9%), LB (4%), QB (BACK UPS ONLY)

 

 

RB - Round 1 (58%), Round 2 (25%), Round 3 (16%) Round 4 (11%) Rounds 5 (9%) Round 6 (6%) Round 7 (0%)

These guys take the honor of being the riskiest choice for any gambler in the entire draft process. Which is probably why drafting them in the mid rounds is so popular as you keep taking shots until you get one and then they don't cost very much. They are also popular UDFA signings as well. Their success rates are last in rounds 1-3. In round 4 they are less risky than only QBs and in rounds 5-6 they carry a little less risk than LBs and QBs do, however in the 6th that difference is only 1% and in the 7th they are again last with 0%. Strangely, more RBs are taken in the 7th than any other round. A gambler would probably prefer using the 7th round taking a shot at another position and just using an UDFA to fill the RB roster in pre-season.

 

DEFENCE

DL - Round 1 (58%), Round 2 (26%), Round 3 (27%) Round 4 (37%) Rounds 5 (13%) Round 6 (13%) Round 7 (3%)

It's hard to find a solid starting DL. Your best shot is in the first same as RB and WR but again, 58% is tied lowest rate for any position. If you're looking for your elite pass rusher you probably need to take the risk in the first because after that, they remain at the bottom in round 2 but have a slightly better percentile in round 3 and making them the 3rd safest pick. Then in round 4 they have better success than in the previous two rounds and become the safest pick. A gambler would look at the 4th round as the logical round to take a shot at landing a DL. Round 6 is also a decent bet.

Round 4 - DL (37%), TE (33%), OL (29%), LB (16%), WR (12%), DB (11%), (RB 11%), QB (8%)

Round 6 - TE (26%), OL (16%), DL (13%), WR (9%), DB (8%), RB (6%), LB (5%), QB (BACK UPS ONLY)

 

 

LB - Round 1 (70%), Round 2 (55%), Round 3 (34%) Round 4 (16%) Rounds 5 (4%) Round 6 (5%) Round 7 (2%)

LBs are great selections in both the 1st and 2nd rounds showing high success rates and finish the second safest pick in each of those two round. They then start to dip significantly but remain solid choices as the 3rd best in round 3.After that, you should probably avoid drafting them if you want to be a winning gambler.

Round 1 - OL (83%), LB (70%), TE (67%), DB (64%), QB (63%), WR (58%), RB (58%), DL (58%)

Round 2 - OL (70%), LB (55%), TE (50%), WR (49%), DB (46%), QB (27%), DL (26%), RB (25%)

Round 3 - OL (40%), TE (39%), LB (34%), DL (27%), WR (25%), DB (24%), QB (17%), RB (16%)

 

 

DB - Round 1 (64%), Round 2 (46%), Round 3 (24%) Round 4 (11%) Rounds 5 (17%) Round 6 (8%) Round 7 (11%)

DBs are one of the more consistent positions throughout the draft. Second only to TEs. In rounds 1-3 they remain very closely similar to all positions from 3-5 for their odds. So they are mid risk picks in those rounds. But if you need a outside corner your best best is to take him in the 1st round as it's a vital position and hard to get later on in the draft. Then they alternate a little differently than most having the same value in the 5th as they have in the 7th. and more value in 5th than they do in the 4th. Also, at 11% they are the safest selection in that round. So, if you're not sure what to do with that last pick? Why not take a shot on a DB. A good gambler would.

 

 

Here is a complete list of all rounds:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

[Tbe]

Good stuff. 

I’d add that positional value should be factored in though. 

A good QB is 100x more valuable than a good OL.

A good LT is more valuable than a LB.

 

[LinvilleGorge]

Lord knows that simply starting games does not equal "success".

[Panthers Rhule]

1 minute ago, Tbe said:

Good stuff. 

I’d add that positional value should be factored in though. 

A good QB is 100x more valuable than a good OL.

A good LT is more valuable than a LB.

 

Absolutely. The data also doesn't differentiate between L and OG for example. I'm not a professional data collector hahaha. I just wanted to create a statistical breakdown. There are some interesting pattern to it if you look closely. I thought it would be an interesting discussion and a different way of looking at the draft

[Shocker]

The problem here is that not all positions are equally important.  Nice post doe.

[Panthers Rhule]

2 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Lord knows that simply starting games does not equal "success".

True, but it's a modest indicator. You have to have a starting point and debating who's was really good or not is in the eyes of the beholder stuff. So having started half of your career is the median.

[Panthers Rhule]

2 minutes ago, Shocker said:

The problem here is that not all positions are equally important.  Nice post doe.

Exactly, that's where organizational preferences come into play. We as Panthers' fans know that not everyone values positions the same. We have often drafted RB, LB and DT in the first round. Most wouldn't consider those high positional value positions but everyone loves most of those players. 

[Icege]

So... Trey Lance, Dillon Radunz, Quinn Meinerz, Osa Odighizuwa, Tre McKitty, and then take a shot with the x3 6th round picks?

I'm ok with this.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Icege

[Shocker]

9 minutes ago, Panthers Rhule said:

Exactly, that's where organizational preferences come into play. We as Panthers' fans know that not everyone values positions the same. We have often drafted RB, LB and DT in the first round. Most wouldn't consider those high positional value positions but everyone loves most of those players. 

I personally am totally ok with considering defense in this draft early.  We are close to building a great defense here.  Pick a dynamic LB or secondary guy and I am good.

Compared with picking Lance we win.  Take the best player.

Do believe in building up the middle.  A great ILB would be really helpful but we are 1 guy away from a great DL with a running mate for Brown.

Edited March 27, 2021 by Shocker

[Shocker]

Look...picking Trey Lance is like this...you play a pickup game with all the big boys and its tough.  Next game someone picks the kid dribbling by himself that looks good.  Then, the big boys show him the big boy game.  

Does he go home?  Gotta know that to pick Lance

While this is going on Parsons is destroying as the best player in the big boy game

Edited March 27, 2021 by Shocker

[Panthers Rhule]

13 minutes ago, Icege said:

and then take a shot with the x3 6th round picks?

Actually, it's the later picks that I find this info the most interesting. Everyone knows that to get a good player, at any position, the best chance is in the first 3 rounds. From rounds 4-7, any time you can find a player that can start for you for a few season and be solid is considered a win. There are some positions that have much better success rates there than others. 

[Shocker]

Picks 4-7 usually don’t work out.  Good to trade all of current draft to move up.  Future 1s being traded to move up almost never work.

[Shocker]

In any scenario you don’t trade the future for anyone in the now...things change

[imminent rogaine]

Good thing it’s easier to successfully draft OL because even though you have it listed as one all-encompassing positions, we need LT, OG, C, OG. 
 

also, I’ll add the law of large numbers. The more first round QBs that are picked, the closer we should be to that 63% figure. Do we think Lawrence is legit? Do we think Wilson is? 

Edited March 28, 2021 by imminent rogaine