So Kellen Mond anyone?

[WOW!!]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Or just get really, really lucky.

I know a lot of people think getting Brady in the 6th was a sign of genius, but I don't.

It's crazy how ppl think this is a regular occurrence and don't understand how many unbelievable circumstances made that happen.. There wouldn't even be a Brady if Bledsoe doesn't get his chest caved in on a scramble he normally never did. 

[WOW!!]

1 minute ago, Pup McBarky said:

There's something to that. Brady isn't the most physically gifted QB to ever come along. But he had something that couldn't be quantified. Maybe Bill saw it in him, but more likely, he saw a decent backup prospect and got ridiculously lucky.

Bill saw his starting QB get crushed by the jets and lucked into Brady being something..

[Jon Snow]

31 minutes ago, Verge said:

If you aren't going to take a QB in round 1, why take one at all? 

Uh, we could use better backups as well?  Of it's bpa why not?

[Verge]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

Uh, we could use better backups as well?  Of it's bpa why not?

Well yeah, but this forum is looking for the answer in the 2nd-3rd round. Not happening. That is where you find the quality backups. Which again, is something we can't really afford IMO.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, Pup McBarky said:

There's something to that. Brady isn't the most physically gifted QB to ever come along. But he had something that couldn't be quantified. Maybe Bill saw it in him, but more likely, he saw a decent backup prospect and got ridiculously lucky.

I honestly think he just saw the next player on the draft board that the scouting and personnel department had put together. Heck, they didn't even play him until Drew Bledsoe got hurt.

Scott Pioli was asked about it years afterward and denied that it was genius. He said something along the lines of "hell, if we were geniuses, we'd have taken him long before the sixth round."

I agree wholeheartedly.

 

[Jon Snow]

Just now, Verge said:

Well yeah, but this forum is looking for the answer in the 2nd-3rd round. Not happening. That is where you find the quality backups. Which again, is something we can't really afford IMO.

This forum is nuts.  The answer will present itself on the field, not on paper.  Everyone is too caught up in where one is picked.  Leave no stone unturned and look at all of them, yes even the later rounds.

[Shocker]

17 minutes ago, Verge said:

I should also preface this with, if you are in a good situation as a team with a solid starter and lots of depth it makes complete and total sense to draft a guy like Mond, Jordan Love, etc etc. Developing a physically gifted QB to be a backup or long term solution makes perfect sense if you can afford to do so. Weaker teams with limited depths and lots of holes taking swings at lottery tickets makes your team a hell of a lot worse unless he do hit the golden ticket, and it makes it worse in the long term. This goes without mentioning the fact that if you did draft a developmental guy in round 2 you might convince yourself out of finding the guy the next year because you might have to admit you suck at your job by drafting yet another QB. 

Sorry but I find this incredibly short sighted.  We can afford a quality backup after round 1 and one of those guys probably end up making it while a top 10 guy will fail miserably.  It has happened many times.

[Mr. Scot]

1 minute ago, Shocker said:

Sorry but I find this incredibly short sighted.  We can afford a quality backup after round 1 and one of those guys probably end up making it while a top 10 guy will fail miserably.  It has happened many times.

Getting a quality backup is cool.

It's nowhere near the same as getting a franchise quarterback though.

[Verge]

1 minute ago, Shocker said:

Sorry but I find this incredibly short sighted.  We can afford a quality backup after round 1 and one of those guys probably end up making it while a top 10 guy will fail miserably.  It has happened many times.

Why draft a guy in the 2nd round only to have to trade up next year to draft yet another QB in the 1st? Makes no sense. You are really playing with negative percentages doing that and ultimately risk throwing yet more draft capital out the window for QBs. 

Makes way more sense if you are really into trying to find a QB to trade our 2nd pick away for future picks in order to have ammunition to move up the next year. Not that I see that happening with us. 

[Jon Snow]

1 minute ago, Mr. Scot said:

Getting a quality backup is cool.

It's nowhere near the same as getting a franchise quarterback though.

We need both.  Get whichever one you can this year (if you can) and you keep looking for the other.

[Shocker]

2 minutes ago, Verge said:

Why draft a guy in the 2nd round only to have to trade up next year to draft yet another QB in the 1st? Makes no sense. You are really playing with negative percentages doing that and ultimately risk throwing yet more draft capital out the window for QBs. 

Makes way more sense if you are really into trying to find a QB to trade our 2nd pick away for future picks in order to have ammunition to move up the next year. Not that I see that happening with us. 

I personally don't see a lot of difference between Jones and Trask.  The QBs in the next draft have a lot of question marks especially if you aren’t sitting at the first pick.  I get your point but  picking someone like Lance is a big gamble especially if you are giving up picks to do so.  Fit is huge obviously but you can get a quality QB after round 1 although it is less likely than the past with how vetted the guys are these days.

[Verge]

So when mentioning percentages (I am stupidly bad at math) here is what I mean 

32 NFL teams 
15 "franchise" QBs (guys who are the no question starter and elite/borderline elite at their position) 
12 of those 15 "franchise" QBs were 1st round picks 
The other three were selected in the 3rd, 4th,  and 6th (wonder who that could be)

So the very simple math is (god I hope I got this right) says 80% of the NFL franchise QBs in NFL are in the first round. There is a very distinct reason for this. So when you really break down the numbers, the chances of you finding a franchise QB after round one, especially lately, is pretty darn low. Investing capital into it is fools gold. Unless you do hit, which in that case is insanely lucky and makes me look like a complete jackass. If you really want a quality backup QB, just go pay a vet 5 million dollars, draft capital is worth so much more. 

[Pup McBarky]

11 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

Fair enough, but it seems to me these things reportedly happen all the time.

That's because they do. Luck is a significant factor. We've learned a LOT about how to scout prospects so it's happening less frequently, but there's still a LOT we don't know. Scouts miss NFL pro-bowlers every year. Every. Single. Year. No, not necessarily with QBs, but they still miss even with them occasionally.

There's no way to be certain about even the most gifted prospects. Desire, competitiveness, intangibles that cannot even be named, much less measured. 

The top 4 QB prospects this year will probably all be good NFL QBs. But they could all be busts. The former is more likely than the latter, but there's still a risk factor with every single one of them. And there's a chance that someone will drop into later rounds and wind up being a very solid NFL QB. Maybe even a star. 

Remember, every single NFL GM passed on Russell Wilson for 2 full rounds. And Kirk Cousins was picked 2 rounds after Wilson. And just remember, Robert Griffin III was picked #2 and Matt Kalil went #4. Brandon Weeden also went in the first round. A few years later, Dak Prescott went in the 4th round. And both QBs taken at 1 and 2 that year have been traded by their respective teams, while Prescott broke the bank.

[Verge]

20 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

This forum is nuts. 

Lol yep for sure