Possible, objective, unsupported Watson scenarios

[MHS831]

This is not an opinion--it is an analysis of the Watson trade scenario from the people who hold the cards--The HOUSTON TEXANS' FRONT OFFICE.  They really are in control, and a wrong move could crush that organization.  So for fun, I analyzed how this might play out.  Enjoy. I accept Bitcoin but do not accept criticism.  This is not about emotion and what I want--this is as objective as I could get.  Slow time of year, so I thought I would analyze this so I could understand and predict.  If it helps you, you're welcome.  If this makes you mad or butt hurt, it is only speculation. Since Texas holds the cards, it is from their perspective.

Scenario 1:  Keep Watson.  You are basically the captain of a mutinous ship--you have lost a great WR, a hall of fame DL, and now, the fan base is watching to see what you do with a top 5 QB who is demanding a trade.  Keep Watson, you have a fan base that knows the QB wanted out (assuming he does not hold out) and force him to honor his contract.

Scenario 2:  Trade a top 5 QB and get picks that will help you rebuild. The Jets and Dolphins each have 2 first round picks in 2021.  Both teams have a recently-drafted, first round QB to deal.  The Panthers, on the other hand, have the eighth overall pick and second first round pick.  If I am Houston, I look for a QB to come in who can develop into the QB just dealt. If that is the case and I want a veteran QB and two first rounders, Miami makes the most sense if they like Tua-- they would get Tua, the 3rd, and the 18th pick in 2021 (maybe more).  I then TRADE the #3 overall pick back for more picks. Theoretically, you get a young QB and 3-4 picks in the top 50.   So if the Panthers are looking to trade up with Miami, they have to wait for the Watson trade to happen or not.  If it does not, and they are not happy with Tua, they will want a QB.  

• Scenario 2a: If the Texans trade with the Jets, then I doubt Darnold at QB will appease the fans in Houston as much as Tua, so we could assume Houston will take Wilson if they trade with the Jets, and get other picks.  This is the most likely scenario, in my opinion.  The Jets have the cap space ($68m) and the large market that needs a large name to attract fans.  The Texans landing the #2 QB in the draft might save jobs.
• Scenario 2c: Houston dangles Watson  for picks #3, #18 and Tua.  If this deal were to go down, Houston may be interested in trading out of #3 or they may take Sewell or a stud WR--but they would likely not take a QB.  In almost every scenario, the #3 pick seems to be one that is available for trade.

Scenario 3:  The Panthers are the last man standing after the Dolphins and the Jets opt for less-expensive options (one takes Wilson, the other stays with Tua).  The Jets can not only draft Wilson, the can trade Darnold, and have a QB on a 4-year, rookie contract.  They can build around him instead of trading away a bunch to Houston.   Miami has a high first round draft pick QB from 2020 and they are developing and they might not want to bring in a big contract.  They have about $23m in cap room--signing Fitzpatrick for a year might be the move for them, while trading the pick to build the roster with cheap rookie contracts. On paper, Watson does not make sense right now.  I do not see them trading.  Keep Tua and build the roster with picks and the remaining cap or give the picks and cap room and Tua to Houston for Watson-possible, but I do not see the wisdom.  

Longshot prediction--A three-team deal:  In this case, the #3 pick becomes something both the Panthers want as plan B and the Texans want as Plan A.  Houston does not have the capital to move up to #3 if Miami is not in the market.  Here is where a three-team trade would be ideal.  Houston trades Watson to Carolina for CMC, Thompson and #8 overall, including a first rounder in 2022 and 2023.  Houston then sends the #8 overall and maybe the first rounder in 2022 to Miami for #3.  Miami then sends the #3 pick to Houston. This way, all teams get what they want-

• Houston gets a first rounder in 2023, the #3 pick in the draft (a QB), CMC and Thompson (for example).
• Miami gets #8 in the draft, a first rounder in 2022. 
• Carolina gets Watson, QB

Or simply move up to #3 for Lance or Fields. If that falls through or Houston wants to keep Watson, the Panthers can trade up with Miami for #8 overall and the first in 2022 and a player like Thompson.  With that pick, they can choose Lance or Fields. 

That is how I think this thing plays out based on what facts are available, but there are hundreds of ways it can go.

Slow news, but this helped me put the QB possibilities in perspective.  (I would say there is about a 40% chance we trade with Miami)

 

So

[cardiackat88.]

Oh hell, give it a bloody rest folks.

[Big Sexy]

Slow day huh? LOL I like the thought and input... Thanks. Interesting ideas....

[Panthera onca]

The Miami trade makes a lot of sense.

[bythenbrs]

I notice that Bridgewater is not involved in any of the above trade scenarios.  Intentional?

Edited February 25, 2021 by bythenbrs

[TheCasillas]

In the last scenario CMC would go to Miami. 

[MHS831]

16 hours ago, cardiackat88. said:

Oh hell, give it a bloody rest folks.

Ummmm---hey, hypocrite:  There was nothing deceptive about the thread title and you opened it.  Did you give it a rest?  No.  So shut up.

Edited February 25, 2021 by MHS831

[MHS831]

4 hours ago, TheCasillas said:

In the last scenario CMC would go to Miami. 

My bad--I got so turned around and parts were confusing because I cut and pasted so much.

Simple version:  The Jets have the pick and the cap room for Watson.  We should focus on a deal with Miami--because they are not picking a QB.  To me, I am settling into a fairly firm account of the situation by engaging in this process:

So if traded,  I predict Watson goes to the Jets based on cap room (that Miami does not have) and the fact that they have 2 first rounders--the Texans take Wilson--if that deal falls through, the Panthers are next in line, but assuming it does not-the Panthers will move up to #3 for Lance or Fields.  However, NY may want to keep their picks and take Wilson--and use the cap they saved and the 3 picks in the top 35 to build around Wilson. (That is what I would do).  So let's say the Jets say, "HELL NO."   NEXT call the Texans make: MIAMI.

So Houston is thinking, "Do we want Tua and 2 first rounders or do we want to keep Watson and try to make him happy? They are not thinking Carolina and CMC / Shaq yet.  They are deciding between  Tua + 2 first rounders, and keeping Watson.  The Dolphins then have to decide if they have the cap room for Watson and are willing to lose the picks it would take to get Watson.  In addition, they have to decide to give up on a player they just researched for months who was not even expected to play in a season with no preseason.  Tall order for a rehabbing rookie, and they said in January that he was their guy in 2021.  Frankly, I think a trade makes them look weak.  Watson's salary would eat all their salary cap and they would lose their first rounders.  They need to rebuild around Tua over selling the farm for Watson. Watson is good, but won 4 games last year with no supporting cast.  Miami would be no different, so do not expect the Dolphin offer to be substantial.  The upgrade at QB is not worth the price.  (If I am Miami, I draft a WR and RT in round 1 and keep Tua.)

So it is possible that Miami and the Jets do not offer the farm for Watson, and they may not offer anything at all.  Three bad front offices trying to cut deals.  The Panthers should lay a good offer on the table and sit back.  If the Texans deal with the Jets, the offer a good deal to Miami.  If the Texans and jets do not come to terms, it is much less likely Miami will give Houston what it wants.  The Panthers should deal with Miami and let Houston tap them on the shoulder---then the price goes down.  if not, the Panthers have Fields or Lance.

Edited February 25, 2021 by MHS831

[cardiackat88.]

56 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Ummmm---hey, hypocrite:  There was nothing deceptive about the thread title and you opened it.  Did you give it a rest?  No.  So shut up.

Mighty defensive.

The title isn’t misleading...it is, however, beaten to death lightyears beyond human comprehension.