Will CMC return to form in 2021?

[Adb6368]

Everyone is discussing him leaving but I’m going to assume our all-world player stays.

The assumption was that he played limited games this year to help expedite the rebuilt. However, does anyone have any info on whether or not the injuries could be burdensome long-term?

I assume the high-ankle sprain fully heals but wasn’t their talk of surgery at one point on his shoulder? If cmc doesn’t go back to the cmc of old this entire franchise looks different moving forward. 

[razorwolf]

I think CMC will return back to his old form of 2019 in 2021. As of January 4th it is not expected that CMC will need surgery on any of his injuries. CMC's AC Shoulder Separation is a lower grade injury that doesn't require surgery approx. 90% of the time

[Harbingers]

CMC never left form. He just was injured and I think Rhule purposely kept him on the sideline when he could likely still play.

[kungfoodude]

The question isn't about him returning to form, the question is whether he will continue to be plagued by injuries. He is an EXTREMELY high mileage RB and typically those guys don't have long careers in the NFL.

He need to hope he is an outlier. 

[Waldo]

If he stays at RB, his time is limited as history has shown. With his skill set, the real question is does he or the team want a RB or a freak playmaker? Let CMC fill the role Samuel's had last year and find a couple of cheap options like we did with Davis.

[Harbingers]

8 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The question isn't about him returning to form, the question is whether he will continue to be plagued by injuries. He is an EXTREMELY high mileage RB and typically those guys don't have long careers in the NFL.

He need to hope he is an outlier. 

I think if we were making a serious run last year he probably could have played way more games than he did. That said you are right he's got some mileage but last year also helped to balance that out.

[kungfoodude]

Just now, Harbingers said:

I think if we were making a serious run last year he probably could have played way more games than he did. That said you are right he's got some mileage but last year also helped to balance that out.

He might have been able to, we really don't know. The "holding him out" was never confirmed to be true or not. And he did have ankle, quad and shoulder injuries. It is also possible that he just couldn't ever get healthy last season. 

We will see what happens. I will say that is a HUGE concern for us moving into next year. If he misses multiple games with injury next season, as well, I think you have to consider perhaps moving on from him in the next offseason. I love him as a player but you have too look at that contract and cringe if he can't stay on the field and be the most productive RB in the NFL. 

Imagine a world where we didn't sign that idiotic extension. After coming off of an injury plagued year and in a post COVID cap scenario, he probably gets a substantially smaller contract to stay here. At that point maybe we are talking about him being here until he retires versus needed to get out of that contract ASAP. 

[TheCasillas]

11 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The question isn't about him returning to form, the question is whether he will continue to be plagued by injuries. He is an EXTREMELY high mileage RB and typically those guys don't have long careers in the NFL.

He need to hope he is an outlier. 

He actually doesnt have EXREMELY high mileage, he has only touched the ball 1002 times over the last 4 years (avg. 250). He and Alvin Kamara both are at the 1000 mark over the four years.  That is actually on par with performing running backs. Even if you include injury years or bench years you get the following numbers:

Here are other back at the 1k mark:
Fournette - 933 at 4 years (233 per season)
Hunt  - 848 touches at 4 years - includes suspension- (212 per season)
Chubb - 750 touches at 3 years (250 touches per season)
Montgomery - 568 touches at 2 years (284 per season)
Jacobs - 568 touches at two years (284 per season)
Aaron Jones - 700 touch at 3 years (233 per season)
Dalvin Cook - 913 at 4 years (228 per season)
Chris Carson - 760 at 3 years (253 per season)

The following back have more than 1200 touches over the last four years:
Zeke - 1300 touches at 4 years (325 per season)
Derrick Henry - 1258 at 4 years (314 per season)
 

Now the argument here isnt that CMC would have had more mileage or been overused... the argument here is that you are stating that CMC has EXTEMELY HIGH mileage, when in fact he is at the same point as most at the position who have played over the last 4 years. In this case.. he just has normal mileage for a player in his position. 

[TheCasillas]

12 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

He might have been able to, we really don't know. The "holding him out" was never confirmed to be true or not. And he did have ankle, quad and shoulder injuries. It is also possible that he just couldn't ever get healthy last season. 

We will see what happens. I will say that is a HUGE concern for us moving into next year. If he misses multiple games with injury next season, as well, I think you have to consider perhaps moving on from him in the next offseason. I love him as a player but you have too look at that contract and cringe if he can't stay on the field and be the most productive RB in the NFL. 

Imagine a world where we didn't sign that idiotic extension. After coming off of an injury plagued year and in a post COVID cap scenario, he probably gets a substantially smaller contract to stay here. At that point maybe we are talking about him being here until he retires versus needed to get out of that contract ASAP. 

If we didnt give him that contract, we would have had to be balancing Watson, Moton, and CMC this offseason. Plus the idea that CMC may not want to stay here and move on because of the transition of the franchise. Which would then impact the potential of Watson wantying to come here. You can tell the story any way you see fit, but in the end there are too many what ifs, and zero certainty. 

[TheRumGone]

5 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

He actually doesnt have EXREMELY high mileage, he has only touched the ball 1002 times over the last 4 years (avg. 250). He and Alvin Kamara both are at the 1000 mark over the four years.  That is actually on par with performing running backs. Even if you include injury years or bench years you get the following numbers:

Here are other back at the 1k mark:
Fournette - 933 at 4 years (233 per season)
Hunt  - 848 touches at 4 years - includes suspension- (212 per season)
Chubb - 750 touches at 3 years (250 touches per season)
Montgomery - 568 touches at 2 years (284 per season)
Jacobs - 568 touches at two years (284 per season)
Aaron Jones - 700 touch at 3 years (233 per season)
Dalvin Cook - 913 at 4 years (228 per season)
Chris Carson - 760 at 3 years (253 per season)

The following back have more than 1200 touches over the last four years:
Zeke - 1300 touches at 4 years (325 per season)
Derrick Henry - 1258 at 4 years (314 per season)
 

Now the argument here isnt that CMC would have had more mileage or been overused... the argument here is that you are stating that CMC has EXTEMELY HIGH mileage, when in fact he is at the same point as most at the position who have played over the last 4 years. In this case.. he just has normal mileage for a player in his position. 

You have to take college into account as well and he was a workhorse at Stanford.

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

He actually doesnt have EXREMELY high mileage, he has only touched the ball 1002 times over the last 4 years (avg. 250). He and Alvin Kamara both are at the 1000 mark over the four years.  That is actually on par with performing running backs. Even if you include injury years or bench years you get the following numbers:

Here are other back at the 1k mark:
Fournette - 933 at 4 years (233 per season)
Hunt  - 848 touches at 4 years - includes suspension- (212 per season)
Chubb - 750 touches at 3 years (250 touches per season)
Montgomery - 568 touches at 2 years (284 per season)
Jacobs - 568 touches at two years (284 per season)
Aaron Jones - 700 touch at 3 years (233 per season)
Dalvin Cook - 913 at 4 years (228 per season)
Chris Carson - 760 at 3 years (253 per season)

The following back have more than 1200 touches over the last four years:
Zeke - 1300 touches at 4 years (325 per season)
Derrick Henry - 1258 at 4 years (314 per season)
 

Now the argument here isnt that CMC would have had more mileage or been overused... the argument here is that you are stating that CMC has EXTEMELY HIGH mileage, when in fact he is at the same point as most at the position who have played over the last 4 years. In this case.. he just has normal mileage for a player in his position. 

He also had 731 touches in three years in college. That is only behind Hunt(855 in 4 years), Chubb(789 in 4 years), and Cook(766 in three years). 

Remember, that mileage matters too. That is why I say EXTREMELY high mileage. Notice that the other high usage three year back on my list is also an injury plagued guy. 

Guys like Zeke and Henry will absolutely start breaking down(Elliott already is). It's just tough to keep taking that kind of pounding in the NFL. Not everyone can be Frank Gore or Adrian Peterson. Those guys are outliers for a reason. 

[kungfoodude]

14 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

If we didnt give him that contract, we would have had to be balancing Watson, Moton, and CMC this offseason. Plus the idea that CMC may not want to stay here and move on because of the transition of the franchise. Which would then impact the potential of Watson wantying to come here. You can tell the story any way you see fit, but in the end there are too many what ifs, and zero certainty. 

Zero certainty but I don't think you see our current front office giving away #1 RB money in the league. And I don't think you see any NFL team in the current climate giving CMC the contract we did. 

Remember, we set the market for guys like Cook and Kamara to get the deals they did(which were still smaller). 

Edited February 21, 2021 by kungfoodude

[ncfan]

If he comes back healthy, and the OL is slightly improved. Yes, yes he will be back.

 

Also having a OL who will complete 20+ yard passes.  This will help as well, keeping the box from crowing.  And keep safety's from coming up and helping the LBs on check downs.

[Adb6368]

50 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

The question isn't about him returning to form, the question is whether he will continue to be plagued by injuries. He is an EXTREMELY high mileage RB and typically those guys don't have long careers in the NFL.

He need to hope he is an outlier. 

The good news is he seems to understand the shelf life of a rb and limits hits where he can. I don’t recall ever seeing him getting blindsided or stood up.

And a lot of his usage are the dink and dunks where he either gains a few yards and runs out of bounds or turns it into a huge gain.