Draft Grades based on AV compared to expected AV

[Ricky Spanish]

Some guy went through PFR and charted how well each team has done at drafting based on overall Player AV (Approximate Value) and their expected AV based on where they were drafted. So guys drafted in top 10 should have better careers than guys in the bottom 10 of the first, 2nd rounders should be better than 3rd rounders, etc. Below are the results.

https://danmorse.shinyapps.io/nfl-draft-value-over-expectation/

Seems like there was some common denominator for almost all those red years... Can't quite put my finger on it though...

And because we got a shiny new GM, here's how his team has done in that same timeframe:

[kungfoodude]

We did really great in 1999-2008, as well.

[Mr. Scot]

4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

We did really great in 1999-2008, as well.

He definitely wasn't great at running the whole show, but Seifert did okay in the draft, especially in 2001 (ironically his final year).

Edited February 16, 2021 by Mr. Scot

[TheSpecialJuan]

interesting 

[Waldo]

Love the numbers.

Wow Hurney was bad, DG was top 10 except one terrible year (his downfall in Carolina, still got Bradburry) and the Seahawks have been very average since their draft guru left.

[Peon Awesome]

2009-2011 was almost historically awful. The numbers don't even tell the whole story. It includes the Everette Brown trade up in 2009 and Armanti Edwards in 2010. Cam Newton was the only player worth a damn in 2011 despite picking number 1 in each round. Hurney was very rightly fired after that although drafting Kuechly and Norman in his final year was his saving grace. 

That being said, by the same metrics Hurney was surprisingly excellent before 2009. He was top 10 in 6 of his first 8 years, and 12th one of the other 2. He really only had 1 bad year in 2003 but even that draft had Jordan Gross and Ricky Manning Jr. So much for that start. 

[Basbear]

27 minutes ago, Peon Awesome said:

2009-2011 was almost historically awful. The numbers don't even tell the whole story. It includes the Everette Brown trade up in 2009 and Armanti Edwards in 2010. Cam Newton was the only player worth a damn in 2011 despite picking number 1 in each round. Hurney was very rightly fired after that although drafting Kuechly and Norman in his final year was his saving grace. 

That being said, by the same metrics Hurney was surprisingly excellent before 2009. He was top 10 in 6 of his first 8 years, and 12th one of the other 2. He really only had 1 bad year in 2003 but even that draft had Jordan Gross and Ricky Manning Jr. So much for that start. 

One overlooked mistakes in herniay era, was this. Frank alexander was another one of herniays trade failures. He was picked in the 4th round of 2012 for a 2013 3rd. Richy Proehl was the panthers WR. Frank loved weed more than NFL checks and failed out of the league soon after. Come the 2013 draft and lets look at the picks right around what would have been the panthers pick=

3	74	Dallas Cowboys	Terrance Williams	WR	Baylor	Big 12	from Carolina via San Francisco [R3 - 2]
	3	75	New Orleans Saints	Terron Armstead †	OT	Arkansas–Pine Bluff	SWAC
	3	76	San Diego Chargers	Keenan Allen †	WR	California	Pac-12

 

Keenan Allen and Ricky where friends and Allen trained for the NFL at Richys business. Hes a great WR and I believe RIchy would have stood on the table for him for the 3rd round pick. Even if they didnt go ALL-pro Allen, theres a stud LT that went to the fuging Saints right there for the picking too. Im about 99% sure they would have picked Allen given the Ricky connection. fug you Herinay.

Edited February 16, 2021 by Basbear

[Harbingers]

1 hour ago, Ricky Spanish said:

Seems like there was some common denominator for almost all those red years... Can't quite put my finger on it though...

Does it rhyme with Marty Hurney?

[Fox007]

Yea just remember when you're out in public that there are actual breathing creatures that somehow think Hurney wasn't a total poo GM. These people are real and that is honestly scary just remember that when your fries are cold or your fast food order is fuged up or you get cut off by that run down 84 firebird that doesn't use their turn signal and tail gates everyone while dragging their muffler and when you see them posting online about some Hurney wasn't a bad GM.