The Case for second chances

[MHS831]

Here me out--just analyzing all possible angles in a positive light--perhaps it would help to look at the stats from the first 2 years or so of QBs like Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, and Josh Allen.  Think about how they improved when their supporting cast improved.  Now--let's take a look at some castaways that could become gems.  For this exercise, I speculate over what is there to be had by teams in the top 7?   Just an exercise to examine possible alternatives to drafting a QB.

1.  NY Jets.  It is really looking as if they will take Wilson.  Why might this be a mistake?  Darnold is 23 years old.  There are rookies coming out this year who are older.  He was young, playing in NY, and he had a terrible coach and a terrible offense.  He still completed about 60% of his passes.  I know he seems to be a bust, but he is still a kid, and if you built a line, put CMC behind him, added a TE, and gave him those WRs--is there not a chance he would be good?

2. Miami, the #3 overall pick:  Tua, coming off an ACL injury that takes time to recover.  It is safe to say that transitioning to the NFL is difficult, but doing so while rehabbing an injury is very tough.   He is left handed, and that would make Moton the blind side protector.  If ever a player was in position to improve from year 1 to 2, it may be Tua.  He has been under Fitzpatrick's wing for a year, and he is smart and classy.  If Miami stays at #3 and picks a QB, a trade for Tua might be an option.

3.  Philadelphia.  Apparently, they could be going after a QB, showing signs of shopping Wentz.   If they trade Wentz to Chicago, as rumored, then you have Trubiski.  (Moan, right?)  Trubiski could be picked up without much invested--but his throwing percentage is very good when he has a clean pocket.  Add a QB, spend picks on the OL, and see what he can do.  That does not mean you are out of the QB hunt.

4.  Detroit.  If the Lions draft a QB,  would they trade Goff?  Would Goff not be good with Brady as the OC?  Would he be better than TB? 

Some times, a QB just needs a new setting. 

 

Again, you have to speculate that damaged goods can be repaired and effective here.  We would have to commit to the OL and get a TE.

 

Edited February 6, 2021 by MHS831

[stirs]

Tannehill comes to mind

[MHS831]

7 minutes ago, stirs said:

Tannehill comes to mind

He does, and I realize that this is suggesting that we develop a qb that was not developed by other professional coaches--highly unlikely.  But I think of it as a chance to take advantage of an impatient owner, a coach on the hot seat looking to roll the dice, etc.  Darnold was 20 when he was drafted into an organization that needed a savior and did not have the leadership or supporting cast. 

I am a firm believer that if you put Lance or Fields or Wilson into a bad situation, you will only get bad results.  Do I think Wilson will turn NY around?  Not without help.  And if you ask too much of him, you get errors.

Goff, on the other hand, did not have the greatest offense, but he had a good defense on a good team.  Tanneyhill did not suddenly become a good player; he suddenly got a team with a good defense, OL, and a pretty good RB.  Makes all the difference.  Maybe we should bring in one of these unloved, discarded QBs and spend our resources on the OL, TE, and D.  Maybe we should trade back and build a young dynasty around a QB who can grow up with the team instead of carrying the team.

[Untouchable]

So of all the QBs potentially on the carousel this offseason only 3 caught my eye. Watson, Stafford and Darnold. Watson and Stafford where obvious significant upgrades on QB1.

Darnold I view as just an extension of the draft. I didn't really believe Tua was up for sale but he is in the same boat as Darnold. A 2nd rounder tops would pry away a young developmental prospect.

None of the others offer an upgrade over Bridgewater or at least not enough of one that is worth losing more capital or cap space over.

[45catfan]

I honestly think all of those guys stays put.  It's the offseason for 30 teams (after tonight 32).  The biggest clicks and news makers in the NFL at this time are HC/front offices changes and QB changes...toss in a couple diva players distractions. All this drama will amount to little.  The most likely to move is Darnold and I say that only happens if the Jets get a more than generous offer.  If the offers are not greatly in the Jets favor, they stick with Darnold taking either Sewell to protect him or trade back with a QB needy team.  

Tua, Goff and Wentz are not going anywhere.  Tua has too much potential and Goff's contract is ginormous  not to mention he was just traded makes little sense.  Wentz has proven to be mentally and physical fragile while having HUGE albatross for a contract.

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, 45catfan said:

I honestly think all of those guys stays put.  It's the offseason for 30 teams (after tonight 32).  The biggest clicks and news makers in the NFL at this time are HC/front offices changes and QB changes...toss in a couple diva players distractions. All this drama will amount to little.  The most likely to move is Darnold and I say that only happens if the Jets get a more than generous offer.  If the offers are not greatly in the Jets favor, they stick with Darnold taking either Sewell to protect him or trade back with a QB needy team.  

Tua, Goff and Wentz are not going anywhere.  Tua has too much potential and Goff's contract is ginormous  not to mention he was just traded makes little sense.  Wentz has proven to be mentally and physical fragile while having HUGE albatross for a contract.

It is very possible that the Jets stay with Darnold, the Fins stay with Tua, and the Falcons stay with Ryan and do not go after a first-round rookie to sit the bench.  I expect some trades, but maybe not the frenzy people think.  If Cincy falls in love with Sewell or a WR or a CB, they could stay put and then Philly enters camp with 2 legit QBs. Detroit may decide to roll with Goff.  So you have to look at the teams that really have no QBs in late April being the most aggressive--currently we are talking New England, Washington, and then possibly Denver, SF, Carolina...

[45catfan]

The crazy thing is the Patriots are definitely in the QB market, but many mocks have them passing on QB with their first round pick.  I get it, the likely choice will be Mac Jones (with the big 4 gone) and if Bilichick isn't in love with kid, he's not going to draft purely off need.  NE isn't a team to jump way up in the draft either, so moving way up probably won't happen.  I think Denver is giving Lock another look to be honest.

The only team that worries me about aggressively jumping ahead of us are the 49ers.  Their front office has proven to not be timid when it comes to pulling the trigger on big decisions.