Watched film of all the top QBs: Zach Wilson screams Mitch Trubisky but Trey Lance has some Mahomes vibes

[TLGPanthersFan]

1 hour ago, Zod said:

I will feel sorry for Lance if he is drafted. This fan base will expect Cam-like play right off the bat. They don't have much in common. 

I won’t. He will play like Lance. Not Cam. 

[Cary Kollins]

Fwiw I went back and read several 2017 mock drafts from major outlets, and nearly every one had Mitch as the first QB going off the board, followed by Watson and then Mahomes falling into the 20s. Walter football even said many teams had a second round grade on Mahomes. The consensus was Mahomes would need a few years to sit on the bench to learn the game. Well a few years later and Mahomes is vying for his second MVP and second Super Bowl.

All that to say, no one knows who the hell is going to be the best QB in this class and it very may damn well be Trey Lance.

[Ricky Spanish]

Just now, Harbingers said:

 

And play style. Plus he's getting this said about him. Its interesting that most scouts asked are valuing him as a second rounder that will probably be over valued as a first round pick in the real world while the media is hyping him as the second or third pick, with Schefter swearing he'll go two overall to the jets.

"In speaking to a director of college scouting from a NFC team that is in the market for a new quarterback, he outlined the makeup concerns with Wilson:
 

• "Johnny Manziel comp without the [drugs]. [Wilson] is fun to watch, but is he a 1-year flash in the pan? He's a backyard baller who is fun to watch."
  
  "Someone will grab him in the first [round]. I doubt he gets to the second [round] because once the third quarterback goes, after Lawrence and Fields, there will be a run on them. [Wilson] has character concerns, rich kid who is an entitled brat - uncle owns Jet Blue -, parents are a pain, not a leader, selfish, and he's a know-it-all.
  
  "His positives are that he's super competitive, not to get scared and won't back down, extremely confident, very smart with keen recall and teammates will play for him.""

What about his playstyle is even remotely similar to Manziel? Johnny football did not play within the structure of the offense. It was one read, scramble, chuck it up to Evans to bail him out. 

He didn't make reads. He didn't make progressions. He didn't throw guys open. He ran around until he got free or chucked it up for someone to bail him out. 

Wilson actually makes progressions. Wilson throws with anticipation. Wilson actually watches film and studies the game (so say his coaches and others within BYU). Wilson's runs are generally speaking designed runs for him in their offense. Watching all of his throws across many games, not just the highlights, shows that he can manipulate the secondary with his eyes and can read defenses. 

I don't necessarily think he'll be ready right out of the gate, but I do believe that he has the ability to be a great QB in the NFL. 

As for the character stuff, I have only seen those things reported on Walter Football and nowhere else. I'm not saying it's not true, I just have not heard those or similar rumors about him anywhere else. They also contradict themselves when they say he's not a leader but his teammates will play for him. So again, not saying it's not true, and I've been on the lookout for more of those rumblings, but I have not seen any more. There were WAY more off field concerns with Manziel out of college and they weren't all drug related. 

[kungfoodude]

23 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

I think when you already know it will take a time, and he didn't pass much, or play good competition it's a good indicator that he's not going to get drafted at the top of the first round. It's complete wishful thinking.

I think you will be wrong about that. If you don't think he will be in the top 15 picks, you haven't been paying much attention to the NFL in the past 5 years and certainly not in the past 5 months.

[mrcompletely11]

24 minutes ago, Cary Kollins said:

Fwiw I went back and read several 2017 mock drafts from major outlets, and nearly every one had Mitch as the first QB going off the board, followed by Watson and then Mahomes falling into the 20s. Walter football even said many teams had a second round grade on Mahomes. The consensus was Mahomes would need a few years to sit on the bench to learn the game. Well a few years later and Mahomes is vying for his second MVP and second Super Bowl.

All that to say, no one knows who the hell is going to be the best QB in this class and it very may damn well be Trey Lance.

Sortof yeah  https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/5/3/15517982/mock-draft-nfl-2017-results

[TheRumGone]

23 minutes ago, Cary Kollins said:

Fwiw I went back and read several 2017 mock drafts from major outlets, and nearly every one had Mitch as the first QB going off the board, followed by Watson and then Mahomes falling into the 20s. Walter football even said many teams had a second round grade on Mahomes. The consensus was Mahomes would need a few years to sit on the bench to learn the game. Well a few years later and Mahomes is vying for his second MVP and second Super Bowl.

All that to say, no one knows who the hell is going to be the best QB in this class and it very may damn well be Trey Lance.

Honestly Mahomes was kind of Johnny Manziel-esque with much better arm talent. He played backyard football at Texas tech which is why the chiefs got low grades for trading a future first to move up to 10 to snag him. Nobody doubted his arm talent but he was so incredibly raw. Bad footwork, bailed the pocket too often, gunslinger mentality, ran around and threw the ball up a lot.

His teammates thought he sucked at his first training camp. Tyreek Hill said as much. Andy has said when they drafted him they thought he could be really good...eventually. It took them by surprise how quickly he became what he is today. It’s because he had the want to and took to coaching well.
 

All of this is a toss up. What you have to do is look for traits, specifically arm talent and character stuff like the drive to be better. There are some prospects who are further along in development then others but you have to project what you think they can become. It’s a crapshoot.

[raleigh-panther]

10 hours ago, davos said:

Going into the year, people were talking up Lance & Fields not being far behind Lawrence.  Now by years' end, there's this Zach Wilson kid out of nowhere from BYU.  It just gives me pause.

Lance though, built like a brick.  Just super interesting.  He's got all the tools but bc of his competition, there's not much to really look at placement wise in tight coverage and under pressure.  But if we think we can groom this kid, let's roll with it.  Such amazing potential.

It

Good share 

it’s funny, the knock on this kid is competition and small school

i had to watch Zack Wilson in every game as my SO is a BYU alum

its not  like BYU’s competition were world class either. More like a D1 team playing D2

give me the choice and would take Lance of size, accuracy potential but not to worry, knowing the Panthers ability to screw up, they will probably trade and pickup Sam Darnold.  I don’t think they have any idea what they need.  If they did,  Bridgewater wouldn’t be here 

while he is more accurate and a bit smaller he reminds me of Cam with his athleticism and you can’t teach that 

Edited February 3, 2021 by raleigh-panther

[Moo Daeng]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I think you will be wrong about that. If you don't think he will be in the top 15 picks, you haven't been paying much attention to the NFL in the past 5 years and certainly not in the past 5 months.

I should and meant to say have said "shouldn't". I see top as top 10. Jordan Love was much more experienced and was considered a reach at the bottom of the first last year. Haskins was considered a reach at 15 the year before. Jackson was considered an end of round 1 at best in 2018.  Mahomes was a 3 year starter and was selected at 10 in 2017. In 2016 Prescott with 4 years in the SEC and 3 years starting and comparable stats went in the 4th. That's 5 years of observations and comparisons that suggest Lance in the top 10 is an enormous gamble based on recent history. Those guys experience dwarfs his.

[Moo Daeng]

Lance threw to receivers who were open by 5 yards. 

[raleigh-panther]

8 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

Lance threw to receivers who were open by 5 yards. 

And Lawerence didn’t ?

a lot of people say these things and truthfully I watch college football on Saturdays, most receivers are open by a lot more than the Nfl  I stopped watching college for a long time because they simply had no defense 

most college defenses are not that great..they simply aren’t 

[kungfoodude]

25 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

I should and meant to say have said "shouldn't". I see top as top 10. Jordan Love was much more experienced and was considered a reach at the bottom of the first last year. Haskins was considered a reach at 15 the year before. Jackson was considered an end of round 1 at best in 2018.  Mahomes was a 3 year starter and was selected at 10 in 2017. In 2016 Prescott with 4 years in the SEC and 3 years starting and comparable stats went in the 4th. That's 5 years of observations and comparisons that suggest Lance in the top 10 is an enormous gamble based on recent history. Those guys experience dwarfs his.

The difference is the QB desperation seems to be increasing this offseason. IMO, some of the hype about all these QB's going high is accurate. 

Perhaps when it all shakes out he falls. We are still in the period of post season evaluation. It is going to be a while before we start getting more rumors from the teams and scouts about where these guys actually rank on their boards.

[kungfoodude]

24 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

Lance threw to receivers who were open by 5 yards. 

Well, that happens a lot in college. Look at Mac Jones. All these guys have tape of them making easy throws. 

[unicar15]

11 hours ago, hepcat said:

I just watched highlights of Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Mac Jones. Here are my thoughts:

Zach Wilson seems frantic in the pocket. His running ability and athleticism is clear. He made some nice throws, but also didn’t always set his feet and throws in funky positions and off his back foot a lot. I think he will struggle to adjust to the NFL unless he’s given time on the bench. He didn’t have a lot of starts in college and he reminds me a lot of Mitch Trubisky. I wouldn’t be thrilled if the Panthers drafted him. 

Justin Fields is very talented. He made a lot of nice throws and has probably the best pure running ability of any QB in this draft class. He read the field well most of the time and made the right throw. He has nice touch on the ball and throws an accurate pass more often than not. The main thing that scares me with him is how awful Ohio State QBs tend to be at the NFL level. 

Mac Jones is probably the most old school QB in the draft. Dude just drops back and slings it. He isn’t going to buy you a lot of time in the pocket with his athleticism so he would benefit from a team with a good offensive line that could give him time to scan the field (bad fit for the Panthers there). He has underrated arm strength and decent pocket awareness when he had pressure. Main knock on him to me which I’ve heard is, the talent around him was baller. It’s true. His guys constantly beat their man and got wide open. All Mac had to do was hit them, and he did. Consistently. I think he’s a late 1st round pick. 

Trey Lance was my favorite QB I watched. Granted, he had the smallest sample size to watch and played against the lowest completion level. But he put off some Patrick Mahomes vibes to me. Guy is super athletic, can buy you a ton of time in the pocket, and has a cannon for an arm. Made some “wow” throws after scrambling around to buy time, and could be the best QB in the draft if he goes to the right team. Will definitely need time on the bench to develop. He was way too quick to take off and run sometimes and struggled to get off his first read. But the tools are there based on what I saw. 

Overall I think Trey Lance is the only other possible superstar QB in this draft outside of obviously Trevor Lawrence. If we draft him at 8, I think he would be coming to a team that could give him a good chance to succeed with some time on the bench his rookie year and some good weapons. Fields is a boom or bust prospect, mainly because of the Ohio State thing, but I think he will end up being a good QB in the NFL. I wouldn’t be angry if we got Mac Jones, but I would hope we traded down if we do. Zach Wilson just feels like a bust waiting to happen but, who knows, I’m not an expert.

tl:dr: I am officially on team Trey Lance.

Wilson to me is someone where if he falls to us then take him. But don’t trade up for him. 
 

The one beef I would have with the Turbisky comp is that Wilson looks significantly more accurate than Turbisky ever was. Turbisky ran a bunch of dink and dunk easy stuff in Fedora’s offense with the occasional lob downfield set up off all the action. His best completion % was 68%.
 

Wilson runs a downfield offense with a bunch of intermediate and downfield routes. His percentage was an insane 74%. He basically threw for the same amount of yards as MT with 100 fewer attempts. That’s an INSANE STAT. 

[Moo Daeng]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

Well, that happens a lot in college. Look at Mac Jones. All these guys have tape of them making easy throws. 

I am 100% not trying to down play Lance. I just think things are completely out of whack because people are QB crazy right now. Wentz is a good example of how he could go high in contrast to my previous statements. He wasn't all that impressive at NDSU but at least he was able to be vetted in person. 

I wouldn't completely hate Lance at 8 but would be much happier if he was to be available at a much more realistic pick that we trade down to.