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Trade up with Dolphins seems the most likely at this point

AU-panther

By AU-panther,
in Carolina Panthers

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
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I'm not saying it is likely to happen, just the most likely of all of our options.

Lets look at what we know.  

The fact we were willing to give up a lot for Stafford tells us that we really want a QB bad, and we are willing to give up considerable future assets to obtain the QB.   Also I think Rhule wants to win sooner rather than later, not sure if we have the patience for a long rebuild. 

Some news out there that we aren't really interested in some of the later prospects, such as Mond or Newman.  That along with the Stafford news reaffirms the idea we aren't looking for projects.   That pretty much leaves us with Watson or one of the top QBs in the draft.

Watson:  Very good chance they aren't willing to trade him at all, but if they do, I think the Jets are in the driver seat because the can offer a QB, Wilson,  with the 2nd pick.  After the Jets though I think we could put together a compelling package because we have some good young players who would be valued in a trade.  Overall though, if there is a 90% chance they won't trade him and then if they do the Jets have a better chance of getting him there is no way we can consider him as our most likely option.

Of the top 4 QBs, I don't think we have the patience to sit at 8 and hope one is there, here again the Stafford trade tells us we aren't going to be passive.  

Everyone agrees that Trevor is going 1st, most people seem to think Wilson goes 2nd(Jets or Texans), that leaves Lance and Fields.  A lot of fans would be happy with any of the top-4 QBs, but in realty most teams will probably like one of Lance or Fields a lot more than the other, just another reason why we won't stay put at 8.

Going to 5 or 6 doesn't guarantee any of the 4 QBs, lets alone the top 3.  Any team out there could trade above us.  Atlanta is at 4 but I don't see them trading with us.  

Going to 3 is the only option that guarantees one of the top 4 QBs, in fact it gets you QB3 which most likely the team will like a lot more that QB4.

Just seems like the most likely scenario at this point.

As someone pointed out in another thread it won't be a cheap trade.  You are looking at about a 800 point jump on the value chart, 2200 vs 1400.

Our 2021 1st, 2021 2nd, and 2022 1st puts you around 2330 points.  1400+510+420.  Future picks are usually valued a year later in the current year, a valued next years 1st as a mid 2nd this year.

I could see us trying to package a player, instead of a pick.  I could actually see the dolphins valuing CMC somewhat more than most teams, they might feel like he could take some pressure off of Tua.  Something like 2021 1st, CMC and 2022 2nd.

 All of this could go out of the window if Dolphins decide to draft a QB.  

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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3 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

I've seen a couple of different mocks recently that have us trading up to get the number five spot from the Bengals.

I think that is risky for the Bengals. They want a LT and this draft has two supposedly top tier LT's. Not sure I would gamble on missing the other one of them if one does go before #5. 

I guess it will depend on what we have to offer and how much they want that LT.

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Mr. Scot Grand Master

Mr. Scot

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Just now, kungfoodude said:

I think that is risky for the Bengals. They want a LT and this draft has two supposedly top tier LT's. Not sure I would gamble on missing the other one of them if one does go before #5. 

I guess it will depend on what we have to offer and how much they want that LT.

I have a hard time believing anything happens until much closer to the draft.

The Dolphins aren't going to want to trade out of that spot anytime soon just in case Houston changes their mind about trading Watson.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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Just now, Mr. Scot said:

I've seen a couple of different mocks recently that have us trading up to get the number five spot from the Bengals.

I don't know if our front office is willing to risk going to 5.  After the Stafford trade attempt they seem to be hyper aggressive to get what they want.

At 5 you aren't guaranteed any of the top-4 qi, let alone one of top 3 QBs. 

 Miami could trade back. Atlanta could take a QB or they could trade back.  The Falcons would probably love to prevent us from getting a QB.

Also I'm not sure if we will like QB4 as much as QB3.  When it is all said and done most teams will probably convince themselves that one is a lot better than the other.  

Only way I see us staying put or just going to 5 is if are convinced that we are the exception and like a certain QB, such as Lance, more that Fields but the rest of the league is higher on Fields.  Maybe we roll the dice and wait, a bit like the Seahawks did with Russel Wilson, just in the top 10 not the first 3 rounds.

Its all speculation at this point, but after the Stafford trade attempt we definitely don't seem like the passive types.  

 

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

The only way I'm going up to #3 is for Wilson, so if Wilson goes #2 I'm out on #3. 

Then you might be stuck with Teddy.  I think everyone needs to realize that is still a real possibility.  At 8 we are definitely at the mercy of other teams.

When it is all said and done it might be the best option, I could see us overpaying. 

At that point do they roll with Teddy or release him and tank with Grier?

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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10 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Then you might be stuck with Teddy.  I think everyone needs to realize that is still a real possibility.  At 8 we are definitely at the mercy of other teams.

When it is all said and done it might be the best option, I could see us overpaying. 

At that point do they roll with Teddy or release him and tank with Grier?

Yeah, the free agent market at QB is pretty rough in 2021. 

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DCR Explorer

DCR

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There is no guarantee any of these Quarterback prospects in the draft are better than Teddy.

They were willing to trade for a proven NFL Quarterback in Stafford.

I think the price would be too high for Watson , we are more likely to trade down than trade up.

 

 

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Moo Daeng Experienced

Moo Daeng

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37 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

I don't know if our front office is willing to risk going to 5.  After the Stafford trade attempt they seem to be hyper aggressive to get what they want.

At 5 you aren't guaranteed any of the top-4 qi, let alone one of top 3 QBs. 

 Miami could trade back. Atlanta could take a QB or they could trade back.  The Falcons would probably love to prevent us from getting a QB.

Also I'm not sure if we will like QB4 as much as QB3.  When it is all said and done most teams will probably convince themselves that one is a lot better than the other.  

Only way I see us staying put or just going to 5 is if are convinced that we are the exception and like a certain QB, such as Lance, more that Fields but the rest of the league is higher on Fields.  Maybe we roll the dice and wait, a bit like the Seahawks did with Russel Wilson, just in the top 10 not the first 3 rounds.

Its all speculation at this point, but after the Stafford trade attempt we definitely don't seem like the passive types.  

 

Most trades happen just before they pick. How is that risky? When the player is there the trade is arranged.

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