The idea of trades "crippling" the future (kinda long but let's talk ALL the QBs peeps)

[davos]

I'm stuck in a blizzard so f it, I'm going for a long post.  How to say this directly and out in front:

--statement--

Trading a lot of assets, including multiple firsts, is simply not as disruptive to a franchise's future as it seems.

--food, thought--

Just food for thought:

The Rams had recently relocated & finally left Jeff Fisher when they last had a first round pick.  With the Stafford trade, Sean McVay's only 1st round pick will have been Goff, who they traded up for.  And they were pretty quick about looking elsewhere after just a few years with a #1 overall pick and even making a SB with him. 

In this time, with super spotty QB play, a zero, ZERO 1st round picks:

They have traded away 1st rounders, even trade out of the first, made the Super Bowl.  Made the playoffs multiple times.

11-5 (playoffs)

13-3 (SB appearance, NFCC)

9-7

10-6 (playoffs)

That's the Rams last 4 seasons.

--elsewhere--

Kansas City spent two 1sts and a 3rd for Mahomes

New Orleans spent two 1sts and a 5th for Marcus Davenport

Eagles used two 1sts, a 2nd, 3rd, & 4th for #2 to land Wentz

The Bears have haven't had a losing record since 2017 and went 12-4 with Mitch lol. Oh Mitch.

--thoughts--

The funniest part of this is that 3 of these QBs didn't even work out...yet in the that time, all four have made the playoffs, two of those teams managed to make the SB.  One actually won it.  Another squad in KC found a stud and is looking at a potential 2nd title in a row.

All circumstances are different and all these franchises were at different stages, BUT, all I'm saying is that using an extra 1st or two to land the guy you want does not ruin a future.  Heck, it doesn't ruin your future even if it doesn't work out.

You shoot and you will either hit or miss.  In these cases, the likes of Spencer Drango, Rashaun Penny, DeAndre Baker, Corey Coleman, Shon Coleman, Jack Conklin were on the other side of the equation in some of these picks received.  Yikes. One could argue those misses on abundant picks still did nothing for teams like the Browns.  We actually landed one of the random extra picks of these deals and guess who that treasured 3rd rounder was?: Daryl Worley.

However, I admit, look at the Titans & Bills though.  I give them props, they helped set up great futures in their trade downs (KC-BUF, LAR-TEN). 

This is why if we don't land Watson, I am fully supportive of a trade up if we want Fields or Wilson. DO IT.   It's not like we're giving up a full draft class, we'll have 4-5 more picks to land linemen, defenders, and/or a skill position dude.  Just go for it. DO IT.

The Rams are in a constantly aggressive win-now mode when they have a super young coach and a generation of his career ahead of them.  They figure out the player they want, they go get him.  They've also have been very smart in letting the right guys walk like Trumaine Johnson, McCleod, Gurley, etc.

--conclusion--

My conclusion here is that I foresee a massive quarterback drought with a generation retiring and guys from 2010-2019 busting left & right, years taking a toll/Cam-ified, or being entirely inconsistent.  Tua, D. Jones, Trubiski, Goff, Wentz, Rosen, Paxton Lynch, Bortles, Darnold, Cam's near the end, Luck retired.  I don't even know if Jackson or Mayfield really have it going strong.  They're good right now, but good long term? I dunno.

2000s QBs going goodbye: Ryan, Rivers, Ben, Rodgers, Brady, Brees.  6 long term, SB level starters. 

That is going to leave SUCH a huge void at QB league wide.  Right now, there's basically ~4-5 teams safely w/ a QB who they know will give them a shot next year:

TEN Ryan Tannehill

KC Pat Mahomes

BUF Josh Allen

SEA Russ Wilson

DAL Dak Prescott (injured/future sorta questionable?)

--

Young but looking good/still early:

Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert

It entirely makes sense why a 33 y/o Stafford was worth this much.  He's got ~4-5 years to go and the league (particularly the NFC) will be prime for new perennial contenders.  It's open season, I see no team really standing out in front in the NFC and that's what LAR is trying to do.

In the likely event we don't land Deshaun Watson, I fully support a trade up for Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, or dare I say Trey Lance.  His potential is super freaking high.  He's not some Jordan Love scrub and if Goff was a recent #1, Carson Wentz was a #2, Mitch T was #2, then why the F not.  Give it a shot, maybe we still win a SB and the guy busts lol.  Sometimes the right coach can get you there, sometimes it's a generational QB, but most of the time, it's a balanced combo of all of the above.  But if you want to find the QB, you've gotta take the shot.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by davos

[WarPanthers89]

They key is how you are building your roster (if you are competing to make it to the super bowl, retooling, or rebuilding) and how you draft. The Panthers could never survive in the past going the route that the Rams have because we only seem to hit on first round draft picks.

At this point I feel that we are going to be aggressive to trade up in the draft to get our QB and fans should not freak out to your point. We are ONE YEAR away from plugging the major holes but after that, we have a ton on young talent that can compete for years to come, along with being in great cap shape and we would have a franchise QB on a rookie wage. With a year of experience in the NFL (most likely sitting behind Teddy for a little bit, I don’t see him starting all year). This is the best case scenario to me. 

[TheProcess]

You either trade up using next years first, or you package (3) 1st with maybe YGM and/or Donte to get Watson. We can survive and build a winner either way. You have to be smart in free agency, and have to draft well in rounds 2-7.  The Rams just replaced their biggest weakness. They will be tough to beat next year.

I am only okay with a Watson trade because I finally saw us draft well beyond the first round last year. I trust in Rhule to keep this going. We can put a line together without having 1st round picks. Put Watson in this offense, and we can compete with anybody offensively. Our defense is young, and will only get better going forward. 

[davos]

1 hour ago, WarPanthers89 said:

They key is how you are building your roster (if you are competing to make it to the super bowl, retooling, or rebuilding) and how you draft. The Panthers could never survive in the past going the route that the Rams have because we only seem to hit on first round draft picks.

At this point I feel that we are going to be aggressive to trade up in the draft to get our QB and fans should not freak out to your point. We are ONE YEAR away from plugging the major holes but after that, we have a ton on young talent that can compete for years to come, along with being in great cap shape and we would have a franchise QB on a rookie wage. With a year of experience in the NFL (most likely sitting behind Teddy for a little bit, I don’t see him starting all year). This is the best case scenario to me. 

Exactly.  I think people need to get themselves ready for a different style of team building.  I can only guesstimate at this point but I think we truly will be aggressive.  It's not just smoke and mirrors/owner speak.  Despite the noise, you are right that we'll be in great shape after next season and a new GM to construct it all, they want to find the guy to build it all around and the NFC will be wide open next season.

Especially if Brady/Gronk retire after another SB win. 

 

[kungfoodude]

I agree. Fans get fixated on the draft as the only means to be successful but many teams have built their Super Bowl caliber teams through free agency, as well. We can't be so myopic in our views of building through the draft. That also means sometimes spending draft capital to get better as a team, either through trading up or trading for talent.

[Scott12345]

Just read Houston wants two #1, two #2, & two young defensive stars for Watson 

[saX man]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I agree. Fans get fixated on the draft as the only means to be successful but many teams have built their Super Bowl caliber teams through free agency, as well. We can't be so myopic in our views of building through the draft. That also means sometimes spending draft capital to get better as a team, either through trading up or trading for talent.

Yepppp 

good post Davos

[Murph]

2 minutes ago, Scott12345 said:

Just read Houston wants two #1, two #2, & two young defensive stars for Watson 

Two firsts is a vague statement. Two firsts from say a playoff team with a bright future like the Colts is no more valuable than our #8 pick this year.

[TrevorLaurenceTime22]

The Rams will suffer long term for trading seven strait first round picks that's a guarantee eeesh it's a full draft of first rounders, their current cap is already reflecting a buy now forget tomorrow mindset...

[TrevorLaurenceTime22]

20 minutes ago, Murph said:

Two firsts is a vague statement. Two firsts from say a playoff team with a bright future like the Colts is no more valuable than our #8 pick this year.

This is never a guarantee.... It's simply the cost of having it now. A 2022 First is only worth a 2021 Second, A 2023 first is valued as a 2021 third... Do you think the Dolphins (or anyone for that matter) expected the Texans first to turn into #3 overall?

[Pup McBarky]

24 minutes ago, Scott12345 said:

Just read Houston wants two #1, two #2, & two young defensive stars for Watson 

Just read where? What's the source?

[pantherclaw]

There has NEVER been enough top flight QBs for even a third of the league. That is the history of the league.  

This is nothing new, except that we're in a more pass happy league. 

[Moo Daeng]

1 hour ago, Scott12345 said:

Just read Houston wants two #1, two #2, & two young defensive stars for Watson 

Interesting since the only statement they made is that they have no interest in trading 

[Moo Daeng]

General consensus seems to be the Rams have handled the entire thing around Goff very poorly. The amount of picks they have used to get to this point is nuts. They are fortunate to have drafted well otherwise to have a talented roster.