NO TO WATSON, NO TO STAFFORD.... YOU WIN THROUGH THE DRAFT

[top dawg]

1 hour ago, TheBigKat said:

Super Bowl Winners per season

1991- Giants (Hostetler was drafted)

1992-  Redskins (Rypien was drafted)

1993 and 1994- Cowboys (Aikman was drafted)

1995- 49ers (Young had been with the 49ers for 8 years prior to winning SB, was a long standing Montana backup)

1996- Packers (for all intent purposes Favre was Packers, can't count his ATL year)

1997-1998- Broncos (Elway, technically drafted by Colts but he was a Bronco)

1999- Rams (Warner, 28 year old who was grossly underseen and caught lightning in a bottle)

2000- Ravens (Dilfer, 28 year old signed to backup T. Banks, was brought in to manage the offense)

2001- Patriots (Brady, drafted)

2002- Bucs (Johnson, 34 year old free agent who guided a studded defense)

2003- Patriots (Brady, drafted)

2004- Patriots (Brady, drafted)

2005- Steelers (Roethlisberger, drafted)

2006- Colts (Manning, drafted)

2007- Giants (Manning, drafted)

2008- Steelers (Roethlisberger, drafted)

2009- Saints (Brees, 30 year old FA who was supposedly busted due to a shoulder)

2010- Packers (Rogers, drafted)

2011- Giants (Manning, drafted)

2012- Ravens (Flacco, drafted)

2013- Seahwawks (Wilson, drafted)

2014- Patriots (Brady, drafted)

2015- Broncos (Manning, free agent signing, rode an impressive defense and Roger Goodell)

2016- Patriots (Brady, drafted)

2017- Eagles (Wentz led them and was drafted, Foles won the game)

2018- Patriots (Brady, drafted)

2019- Chiefs (Mahomes, drafted)

 

With the rarity free agents like Brees, Brad Johnson, Dilfer or Warner, if you want to win the big one you don't trade for a soon to be 33 player like Stafford or give up a kings ransom for Watson. You get there by nailing it in the draft

I generally agree! I really do! But, a QB of Watson's caliber who has not hit his prime has NEVER been available! EVER! If he truly wants out and carries through, he is an outlier that is absolutely worth considering! There's really no way to philosophize that fact away! It has never happened, and no one knows how an addition of a sure thing with the lion's share of his career left will affect the team that gets him.

Edited January 26, 2021 by top dawg

[thennek]

I think the Texans would be incredibly stupid to let Watson go. It would be unprecedented for a team to trade their star QB in the prime of his career. Makes no sense.  

[t96]

When was the last time a QB of Watson's caliber was available via trade? The answer is never so there is no precedent to compare it to. Poor argument here...

[top dawg]

12 minutes ago, thennek said:

I think the Texans would be incredibly stupid to let Watson go. It would be unprecedented for a team to trade their star QB in the prime of his career. Makes no sense.  

So, you think that it's a winning strategy to keep a disgruntled QB who is determined to get out of town?

[Beerfacedlegend]

Tell that to Tampa bay , they went big in free agency and are about to win a sb after decades of sucking us we have nothing because we are soft and cheap and every one hates the Carolinas besides us . We complain every year about cap and we don’t even win 8 games , it’s time to try something new , get Stafford screw it . Do something different 

[TheBigKat]

38 minutes ago, top dawg said:

I generally agree! I really do! But, a QB of Watson's caliber who has not hit his prime has NEVER been available! EVER! If he truly wants out and carries through, he is an outlier that is absolutely worth considering! There's really no way to philosophize that fact away! It has never happened, and no one knows how an addition of a sure thing with the lion's share of his career left will affect the team that gets him.

Don't disagree there. The closest thing to it I can recall is Denver trading Cutler in his prime to Chicago. To call him a superstar though is pushing it

[TheBigKat]

19 minutes ago, Beerfacedlegend said:

Tell that to Tampa bay , they went big in free agency and are about to win a sb after decades of sucking us we have nothing because we are soft and cheap and every one hates the Carolinas besides us . We complain every year about cap and we don’t even win 8 games , it’s time to try something new , get Stafford screw it . Do something different 

Raiders

Panthers in 95 (made it to NFCCG)

Eagles DREAM TEAM

there's been tons of teams who've loaded up on past their prime vets for that 'push to the Super Bowl' and fallen short

 

While Brady is the GOAT can you name a SB winner who loaded up on a bunch of 32+ year old players and won

[Hoenheim]

Were going to have to take some sort of risk either trading up or a big FA trade if you want to win in the near future.

Yea you can play the long game and just go bpa in the draft and wait till the right QB drops to you or get him another year . This might eventually work but it'll likely take much longer. Keep in mind the Panthers have had 3 losing seasons in a row and Tepper probably desperately wants to avoid being mired in a 4th consecutive losing effort . Would be really bad for fan interest , sales, and probably start to create a browns-esque losing culture.

What is the right path? Both could actually work . But like I said the long path is going to alienate a large portion of your fanbase until you finally get a franchise QB 

I think the signs are pointing to us making either a blockbuster FA trade to get Watson or Stafford ,  or a big deal to trade up for Wilson or Fields . I'd be surprised if they play the long game considering how things have been going since 2018.

Tepper got his staff in place now all he needs is his franchise QB. Well probably get one shortly

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hoenheim]

24 minutes ago, Beerfacedlegend said:

Tell that to Tampa bay , they went big in free agency and are about to win a sb after decades of sucking us we have nothing because we are soft and cheap and every one hates the Carolinas besides us . We complain every year about cap and we don’t even win 8 games , it’s time to try something new , get Stafford screw it . Do something different 

Tampa hasn't had a terrible team overall they've just been in dire need of a good qb for a very long time . 

Watson would have a similar  effect Brady had in Tampa if he were to come to Carolina imo. I don't see us getting to a super bowl immediately though since we're still missing some key pieces on oline and at LB /secondary. But a good draft /FA can patch most of that up . 

[ChibCU]

1 hour ago, Shocker said:

Peyton Manning beating our asses in the Super Bowl does kinda undermine this idea.  

However, OP has a solid argument 

What game did you watch?

[thennek]

29 minutes ago, top dawg said:

So, you think that it's a winning strategy to keep a disgruntled QB who is determined to get out of town?

I think it is a fluid situation that nothing has been decided or determined. The Texans do not even have a coach at this point. A very long ways to go before Watson is not a Texan.....

[mwright350]

The premise here is great - it's of course *preferable* to draft your QB vs acquire him through trades all things being equal.  The cost for the player is lower in most measurable ways and probably in most situations (not a GM, and I don't play Madden).

However just listing out SB winning QBs and whether they were drafted by that team is information missing a lot of meaningful context: how often do franchise / superstar/ [pick your descriptor] QBs come on the market to BE traded for, how old were they when they did, were they already declining when they did, what is the state of the team they went to, on down the line.   I don't think between us all we could list every possible thing that could affect whether a team wins a SB in a more significant way than how they acquired their QB, either, excepting that how they acquired their QB might be an indication of the state of that franchise (total guess, who knows!).

To the specific QBs eh.  I lean towards thinking Stafford is more likely to blow up in our faces than not and I might be inclined to take my coin-flip in the draft in that case.  Watson, to me, is an outlier.  If he manages to force Houston to trade him he is a demonstrably outstanding QB who has shown he can play well in poor situations and is what, 25?  Our set of QBs to compare him specifically to is much, much smaller and I believe his risk is significantly lower than anyone we're going to be able to draft.  If he can be had for a price that the Panthers think is justified by that lower risk I'll do cartwheels.  I have no realistic expectation that happens - but one can dream.

[MHS831]

I hear you and I too prefer a drafted QB.  But the logic is a bit misleading.  You do not list the drafted QBs that stayed on their drafting teams that did not win a Super Bowl. 

A team that drafted their QB tends to have that QB longer than a team that signed a free agent QB, so there are more years for the drafted QB to win a Super Bowl on the team that drafted him.  For example, Brady has 1 year with Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl, and he had 20 years with New England to win the Super Bowl.  Secondly, it is more likely that a free agent QB who was not signed by his draft team and allowed to hit the open market came from a team that was not winning Super Bowls.  Does that mean the QB lacks the capacity to win a Super Bowl?  Could it mean that the team did not surround him with talent, the coaching staff is bad, etc.

Stafford took over a team that was 0-16.  His last five years have been exponentially better than his first five.  Taking Stafford and drafting a QB next year for 2024 gives us a smooth transition without a hiccup rookie QB season.  If we are thinking long term, would a rookie developing under a veteran for a few years not be the way to go, or is rolling the dice on a drafted qb better?

This is kind of like the stats that people are posting about the successful QBs not being taken in the top 10, assuming it is better to take a QB later in the draft if you look at long-term stats.  The fallacy?  It is probably not the QB taken in the top 10 that sucks, but the franchise drafting in the top 10. 

Very interesting post, by the way---it should make us think.

[Aussie Tank]

How about we flip the Packers script and if they want to keep Rodgers happy and trade Love. Would you pay a 2nd to get a young athletic big armed QB with a 1st round rookie contract?