Strategy if we are going the vet QB route again: accrue picks

[davos]

I'd like to think Fields or Wilson (maybe Lance) are the primary targets if Watson isn't falling into place.  That's fine, I don't mind trading up for a pick.

However, if we don't land a draft trade up, the top 4 are gone (Trevor, Fields, Wilson, Lance) and we're staring at either a Mac Jones or trading for Matt Stafford, I would very much rather take a gander down this route:

• Not 2021, but use a future 1st or mid-round package on Stafford. 
• We should not mortgage this year's pick because it is simply more valuable than he is.  And I don't like the idea of the Lions' sweetening it w/a 2nd/3rd to help out, I'd rather keep that #8 for other reasons. 
• What is that other reason? Simply put: If we are serious about Matt, we should look at a 2021 trade down for a mid-first, future first, & 3rd/4th rounder.  I'm looking at the Dolphins, Patriots, Cardinals, before there's a tier drop. 

We gain draft picks to offset a trade, get Matt Stafford (via 2022 pick[s]), and could easily still draft one in 2022 if all goes to sh*t with at least (1) first rounder.  Furthermore, we are able to use a mid-2021 on a very good OL talent which would be in range for the 2nd or 3rd one off the board.  Get more picks, maybe take a gamble on a backup mid-rounds. 

I know, easier said than done, but I think that's the strategy we need to look at if we're not aggressively trading up in the draft or getting Watson.  We are and were never getting Sewell and we are not getting Fields or Wilson barring a trade up so I think we need to be very smart with how we do this.  

This Stafford talk is ballooning and yeah, it's another QB thread, but I wanted one focused on a trade down scenario and not losing #8 for him.  That is just not smart, no matter how the QB market looks this year.  I'll leave figuring out the cap of it all to Fit.

[Moo Daeng]

I don't think it's realistic to assume that the top 4 are gone at 8. There are too many good players at other positions to force project players like Lance that high. 

[BrianS]

40 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

I don't think it's realistic to assume that the top 4 are gone at 8. There are too many good players at other positions to force project players like Lance that high. 

I disagree.  I would not be AT ALL surprised if four QB's are gone before pick eight. 

The first thing to keep in mind is that this draft is considered the best QB draft in a long, long time.  That informs everything that will happen.

Now, the Jags and Jets are definitely going QB.  It's not even a question.  Atlanta will go QB with Ryan turning 36 before the season starts and his contract getting out of hand in a couple years.  Perfect opportunity for them.

The fact that Detroit is shopping Stafford should give you a pretty clear indication of what their thinking may be.

So that's an EASY four to project.  And this doesn't even consider the multitude of QB needy teams who may be willing to trade up with Miami, Cincy or Philly.  Teams like the Broncos, Patriots, Colts, Bears, WTF are all in the market.

There will be six QB's in round one.  I know, most people think I'm crazy.  Maybe I am.  But consider, there is this perfect storm brewing.  Good QB draft.  Massive need across the league.  Salary cap decrease.  Only six teams with 30 million (or more) in cap available next year.  It wouldn't be all that shocking to see 12 QB's in total across all rounds.

[davos]

45 minutes ago, Moo Daeng said:

I don't think it's realistic to assume that the top 4 are gone at 8. There are too many good players at other positions to force project players like Lance that high. 

Even so, the wildcard is Lance.  How high he's viewed by others, how we view him, the top-3 are gone.  I'd find it hard to see otherwise and Lance is the question mark.

Teams need to build to beat teams like KC.  That means interior DL, a solid OL and an agile down field assassin at QB.  Lance's upside is too enticing, even more than Fields and Wilson in that regard.  Even if it's not us, I see a team falling for him. Jones is where there's a drop in upside in a major way. 

 

[chknwing]

or we keep bridgewater for another year since hes gonna count against the cap anyways and is literally untradable.  Trade down our 8th pick to pick up additional picks and rebuild the rest of the team.  Acquire a decent vet qb, next offseason to surround with the talent we got from this years picks.  Hurney fed tepper and Rhule a bunch of mumbo jumo that led them to think they could win now with the team they had.  Tepper learned his lesson.  They are going back into full rebuild.  Carolina may take a shot on a qb with a 3rd round pick this year as an eventual backup or more.

[mrcompletely11]

If, if 4 qb's go in the top 7 (which I think there is 0% chance of happening) but if 4 go in 7 then the value of the 8th pick skyrockets in value due to all of the talent that is sliding down.  So in that case a trade back is in the cards.  But I truly think either one if not 2 of the qbs are staring at us to choose from at 8. 

[mav1234]

If 4 QBs are gone before we pick there are going to be some simply incredible options available at that spot. 

[sr20nc]

Ran a couple sim mock draft last night and at #8, there a few non qb first day starter at pick #8 too good for us to pass. I say we keep #8 but any picks after 8, we should trade down if needed. Pick 39 is a toss up for trading down. 

[TheCasillas]

17 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

If 4 QBs are gone before we pick there are going to be some simply incredible options available at that spot. 

This. We can still draft a QB we like in later rounds, or go to a FA option. The talent left at 8 if 4 QBs are taken would be insane. You are guaranteed a top 5 talent at #8

[CRA]

16 minutes ago, TheCasillas said:

This. We can still draft a QB we like in later rounds, or go to a FA option. The talent left at 8 if 4 QBs are taken would be insane. You are guaranteed a top 5 talent at #8

I would think the odds are high that the noteworthy QBs being discussed will have found homes before the draft takes place.    

I don't know we would invest more money into another Teddy type.  Just ties up pointless money. 

[PhillyB]

stafford plus like, a tackle, guard, MLB, and TE out of these primo draft picks would be fuging outstanding 

[CanadianCat]

1 hour ago, mrcompletely11 said:

If, if 4 qb's go in the top 7 (which I think there is 0% chance of happening) but if 4 go in 7 then the value of the 8th pick skyrockets in value due to all of the talent that is sliding down.  So in that case a trade back is in the cards.  But I truly think either one if not 2 of the qbs are staring at us to choose from at 8. 

Right the top guys remaining will likely be a MLB or a TE.. 

[mav1234]

1 hour ago, CanadianCat said:

Right the top guys remaining will likely be a MLB or a TE.. 

The TE is an incredible weapon and I wouldn't be heartbroken with him at all.  

TBH I expect one of the top 4 QBs to be available at 8, too.  We'll see though.

[CanadianCat]

10 minutes ago, mav1234 said:

The TE is an incredible weapon and I wouldn't be heartbroken with him at all.  

TBH I expect one of the top 4 QBs to be available at 8, too.  We'll see though.

I dont disagree. I would not be unhappy with Pitts but at 8 its pretty rich.