Jump to content

  • Welcome!

    Register and log in easily with Twitter or Google accounts!

    Or simply create a new Huddle account. 

    Members receive fewer ads , access our dark theme, and the ability to join the discussion!

     

The Past 10 years of First Round QB Drafting

CarolinaSunday

By CarolinaSunday,
in 2023 NFL Draft

 Share

Recommended Posts

CarolinaSunday Explorer

CarolinaSunday

Posted
Posted

There is a lot of discussion in the various threads about whether the Panthers should draft a QB at #8, go after a free agent, or trade for a QB (you know who I mean).  Threads have popped up about what it would likely cost to trade for a QB and whether any of the upcoming free agents are worth taking a shot on.  

To help round out the discussion, I made a chart (I love charts) of the QBs who have been drafted in the first round in the past ten years and how long they were with their respective teams.  It was interesting to me that the earliest draft in which a QB was still with the team that drafted him was *2016*.  Although there are earlier drafted QBs still in the league, and some of them are still starting somewhere, I think you can see there are not a lot of barn burners here. I think drafting a QB is a crap shoot and you don't really know what you're going to end up with.

Of this list, I see 4 QBs who made it to the SB (depending on how you count Carson Wentz, I counted him since he was a large reason why they made it) and 1 QB who has won the SB (did not count Wentz here since he did not play). (Josh Allen could be added to this tabulation this year, we'll see).

And 2013... woof, man.

image.thumb.png.03a7d770008ea8a8148a6b191818a2ca.png

 

  • Pie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

  • Pie 6
  • Beer 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
KSpan Grand Master

KSpan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

Exactly. Also, looks like 23 of the Week 17 starting QBs (I'm including Mahomes, Burrow, and Ben here since they'd typically be starting) were all drafted in the first round (I'm also including Brees since he was pick 32, but that was top of Rd 2 back then). Another 2 were picked at picks 35 (Dalton) and 36 (Carr); excluding Dalton since he's a backup would drop the total to 22. From there guys like Lock, Henne, and Hurts were 2nd round picks.

Wilson, Brady, and Cousins are the only quality starters chosen outside of the first round.

I'm not making any definitive statements, but the Week 17 data support your premise. 

  • Pie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WarHeel Mentor

WarHeel

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

I don’t know too many people vouching for drafting a QB after the first. Most arguing against drafting one in the first are doing so on the notion that you need to sell the farm to do so. 

  • Pie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Waldo Grand Master

Waldo

Posted
Posted

Just shows me you need to take the leap if the draft has quality options because there are years where signing a random vet and just having fun is better than letting your need push you into drafting a dud. 10-16, holy cow we lucked in with Cam. 

  • Pie 2
  • Beer 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrianS Veteran

BrianS

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, AU-panther said:

Everyone loves to point out that a lot of QBs in the first don't work out but you also need to look at all of the QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 and see how many times they work out.

The first round doesn't guarantee you that you are going to right about the QB you draft but drafting one after the first almost guarantees you are going to be wrong.

I did this math a while back.

Round 1 QB's generally make it about 50% of the time (48% to be exact) over the last 25 years.

Round 2-7 QB's generally make it about 11% of the time over the last 25 years.

  • Pie 1
  • Beer 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BrianS said:

I did this math a while back.

Round 1 QB's generally make it about 50% of the time (48% to be exact) over the last 25 years.

Round 2-7 QB's generally make it about 11% of the time over the last 25 years.

out of curiosity what was the standards for "making it"?

I would have thought it was even less for both categories.

 

Edited by AU-panther
spelling
Link to comment
Share on other sites
J.B. Explorer

J.B.

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, CarolinaSunday said:

There is a lot of discussion in the various threads about whether the Panthers should draft a QB at #8, go after a free agent, or trade for a QB (you know who I mean).  Threads have popped up about what it would likely cost to trade for a QB and whether any of the upcoming free agents are worth taking a shot on.  

To help round out the discussion, I made a chart (I love charts) of the QBs who have been drafted in the first round in the past ten years and how long they were with their respective teams.  It was interesting to me that the earliest draft in which a QB was still with the team that drafted him was *2016*.  Although there are earlier drafted QBs still in the league, and some of them are still starting somewhere, I think you can see there are not a lot of barn burners here. I think drafting a QB is a crap shoot and you don't really know what you're going to end up with.

Of this list, I see 4 QBs who made it to the SB (depending on how you count Carson Wentz, I counted him since he was a large reason why they made it) and 1 QB who has won the SB (did not count Wentz here since he did not play). (Josh Allen could be added to this tabulation this year, we'll see).

And 2013... woof, man.

image.thumb.png.03a7d770008ea8a8148a6b191818a2ca.png

 

Would love to see the data on rounds 2-7 of the same time period 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • PMH4OWPW7JD2TDGWZKTOYL2T3E.jpg

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • d-dave
      Cam will be on a reality show, airing in January

      By d-dave · Posted

      There's a real physical toll that playing in the NFL takes on the body.  Certain things just won't work the same, which will make some of those challenges painful and hard.  These folks are all rich and have cushy lives to return to.  I'm not saying Cam will leave first, but I can see it after a few episodes when old injuries flare up.  Or he decides he's done with it.
    • CRA
      Cam will be on a reality show, airing in January

      By CRA · Posted

      His size could work against him…BUT Cam is a weird duck.  He was wired differently.  I would bet on the young Cam that could barely get dressed after a loss….that dude wouldn’t have quit easily IMO.  But that dude doesn’t exist anymore. 
    • rayzor
      Finally a power ranking we are top 5 in..

      By rayzor · Posted

      i got attacked by a housecat once. pretty terrifying.  i was at a friends house and the cat jumped on my lap. it was calm for a minute but then it turned on it's back and bit my hand and sunk it's claws into my arm, all four of them so i grab the thing and pull the thing off my arm, dragging it's claws down my arm. i finally get the crazy thing off and throw it on the ground then it grabs my leg (fortunately i was wearing jeans that day) and the owner, who has just been sitting there in shock watching this happen to this point, grabs the thing and carries it downstairs and throws it outside.  supposedly that cat had never done anything like that before. i had been over there a lot and never had any problems with that cat. but something happened to it and it was never the same. went completely mental. they kept it outside after that. one week they went on vacation for a few days and apparently a stray chow came around and when they got home, the chow had the cat trapped under a car. no telling how long it had been there.  they chased off the chow and the cat ran off and they never saw it again. then that chow came back and hung around for a while and was terrorizing the other animals, including an old horse they had in a pasture. it killed at least one cat that i know of. they called animal control on it and they found it under one of their outbuildings. they figured the only thing they could do is shoot the thing. they shot it with a shot gun and it took one blast and then went running towards the guy who shot it and had to shoot it again. 
×
×
  • Create New...