Realistic trade values for Watson

[Sgt Schultz]

People also make the mistake of thinking that because he wants out, that will weaken what the Texans get for him.  Maybe it would, if there were only one or two teams interested. 

We are looking at a situation where the demand for Watson is going to be high.  At this point, the fact that he is demanding a trade only impacts the fact that upwards of ten teams are talking to the Texans, as opposed to zero because everybody thinks he is untouchable.  Even if his no-trade clause cuts half of them off, it only takes three to get the bidding war spiraling out of control.  Two, if you have the right (or wrong) GM/owner involved.

That, however, is not limited to this site or Carolina fans.  Some of the trade ideas I have heard from various sports talk radio shows will make your hair hurt.  The worst for that seems to be the New York area, where some good number of fans seem to think that every team in every sport is looking to trade their talent to a New York team.

[Snake]

34 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think the conversations starts with three 1sts or the equivalent. So yeah #8, next year's 1st and someone like CMC could potentially be in the ballpark.

You don't give cmc up if you are paying 3 firsts. 

[cookinbrak]

Who won more games last year, Watson or Bridgewater?

[theinstrumental]

I do think that it helps that the ceiling for basically any recent trade is three firsts. It makes it that much harder for the Texans to ask for five. Washington basically treated RG3 like he was going to be what Watson is now, so the anchoring effect to keeping it around 3 picks is that much stronger. I’m sure it’ll eclipse the RG3 deal, but not by as much as Watson’s probably worth.

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

People also make the mistake of thinking that because he wants out, that will weaken what the Texans get for him.  Maybe it would, if there were only one or two teams interested. 

We are looking at a situation where the demand for Watson is going to be high.  At this point, the fact that he is demanding a trade only impacts the fact that upwards of ten teams are talking to the Texans, as opposed to zero because everybody thinks he is untouchable.  Even if his no-trade clause cuts half of them off, it only takes three to get the bidding war spiraling out of control.  Two, if you have the right (or wrong) GM/owner involved.

That, however, is not limited to this site or Carolina fans.  Some of the trade ideas I have heard from various sports talk radio shows will make your hair hurt.  The worst for that seems to be the New York area, where some good number of fans seem to think that every team in every sport is looking to trade their talent to a New York team.

Yeah but we also have no idea about what the scenario is going to be. Perhaps he loves Saleh and wants the Jets or no one? Or maybe Miami? 

It's kind of absurd for people(including OP) to be so definitive about a scenario that is entirely theoretical. It's like trying to solve for a multi-variable equation with only one factor known. 

Conventional wisdom would dictate that Watson's value should be historically high. But that is also not factoring in that he has a no-trade clause, that's not factoring in how long the Texans take to blink(imagine a world where they don't blink until after the 2021 Draft and now teams have established QB positions), that's not factoring in the unknown salary cap for 2021 due to COVID, that's not factoring in the fact that this is the Texans and perhaps they are just fuging stupid and bungle this. 

I don't think you can say with any certainty what will or won't happen. Too many factors involved.

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, Snake said:

You don't give cmc up if you are paying 3 firsts. 

That's not what I said.

[AU-panther]

39 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

I think the conversations starts with three 1sts or the equivalent. So yeah #8, next year's 1st and someone like CMC could potentially be in the ballpark.

Maybe I'm being pessimistic but to me someone like the Jets would quickly offer their 1st this year plus their next two 1st, which would be a way better deal, same with Miami.  The #2 pick from the Jets is probably worth everything you are talking about offering by itself.  If they don't want to draft QB2 at pick 2 they can easily flip it for at least 2 first round picks.

 

 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

3 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

Maybe I'm being pessimistic but to me someone like the Jets would quickly offer their 1st this year plus their next two 1st, which would be a way better deal, same with Miami.  The #2 pick from the Jets is probably worth everything you are talking about offering by itself.  If they don't want to draft QB2 at pick 2 they can easily flip it for at least 2 first round picks.

 

 

 

I'm not so sure. Maybe the Jets and Dolphins are just posturing about sticking with Darnold and Tua but also maybe not.

[Sgt Schultz]

1 minute ago, kungfoodude said:

Yeah but we also have no idea about what the scenario is going to be. Perhaps he loves Saleh and wants the Jets or no one? Or maybe Miami? 

It's kind of absurd for people(including OP) to be so definitive about a scenario that is entirely theoretical. It's like trying to solve for a multi-variable equation with only one factor known. 

Conventional wisdom would dictate that Watson's value should be historically high. But that is also not factoring in that he has a no-trade clause, that's not factoring in how long the Texans take to blink(imagine a world where they don't blink until after the 2021 Draft and now teams have established QB positions), that's not factoring in the unknown salary cap for 2021 due to COVID, that's not factoring in the fact that this is the Texans and perhaps they are just fuging stupid and bungle this. 

I don't think you can say with any certainty what will or won't happen. Too many factors involved.

I don't disagree, but as a "potential buyer," if you go in thinking all those factors will magically align in your favor, you will be sadly disappointed. 

[Panfan35]

I am I correct since there was no trade clause in his contract that Watson would have a say in which team he is willing to be traded to. In this scenario this is a forced trade because he no longer willing to play for said team so the highest offer for him might not even matter it would come down to which team he wants to play for and what the Texans will view as Adequate compensation to cut their losses.

[SmokinwithWilly]

12 minutes ago, spizike99x said:

So you’re willing to take a chance at losing multiple good players and potential good players for one, then have to spend more or take a chance at hitting in later rounds to replicate the 1st round talents lost. You trade for Watson and the only player given up is CMC, you’re instantly in negative equity. Then you lose multiple first round picks. Our cap isn’t going to look good this year even without Watson. So lets add him into the equation. Watson’s cap hit is roughly 15 million this year, CMC is roughly 12 million. So by including him thats 3 million extra we have to spend with only 8 million available currently. If the cap goes up we are good if it goes down well this will get fun. Will we carry bridge water too? If so thats a 23 million cap hit, if we cut before 6/1 we are instantly going to seen as a defunct organization. If we cut after still be bad (15 million in dead cap as opposed to 20 million) but at least there will be a little more wiggle room. We still have contracts that could be restructured or people to cut that gives us more space but then we are in an even deeper hole talent wise. Do we really want to suck for a few more years, waste Watsons prime and finally years later when we have access to our own 1st round picks a more open cap and have the money to use in FA deem this trade a success? I don’t see this making any sense for the future. 

I never said I want the trade because I have no idea what they will ask in compensation and I dont know what coaches think of this years QB prospect. I think they will ask 4-5 1sts or 3 1sts with 2 players of 1st round caliber. If I'm Houston, I ask for Burns, Moore, and 2 1sts. Would likely settle for Burns, Moore, 8 and next years 2nd. That is a haul for a franchise QB. Also, to rebuild they arent going to want to take on another high paid RB. They will want cap room to extend Moore and Burns when rookie deals expire. But we are talking trade value and you have to consider many different aspects of any trade. If the price is right, I'm all for it. Nobody thought last year Hopkins could be had for Johnson and a 4th. 

[kungfoodude]

6 minutes ago, Sgt Schultz said:

I don't disagree, but as a "potential buyer," if you go in thinking all those factors will magically align in your favor, you will be sadly disappointed. 

I have no expectations on what will or won't happen. If I had to bet on the most likely scenario right now? He'll be playing football for the Houston Texans in 2021.

[Sir Purr]

Whoah, whoah,whoah!   Watson may be available for trade? Why hasn't someone already posted about this? 

[Sgt Schultz]

10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I have no expectations on what will or won't happen. If I had to bet on the most likely scenario right now? He'll be playing football for the Houston Texans in 2021.

I would not be surprised by that, either. 

It is just comical to watch people here think we can pawn off our less-than-stellar contracts on the Texans for Watson.  "We'll give you our #8 pick and all the players we have under contract that we don't really want for a guy ten other teams may be willing to trade for."

Or, as Onmyown pointed out, trade our best talent and our ability to address the holes for the next three years, essentially recreating the situation we had when our offensive philosophy was basically "we have Cam Newton."  And then they will complain that our offensive philosophy is "we have Deshaun Watson" and we have not done anything to get him any help.

It's like we have people who hated the Hurney-Rivera methodology so much they want to recreate it!