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Devin White... Micah Parsons

musicman

By musicman,
in Carolina Panthers

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ericr0319 Collaborator

ericr0319

Posted
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Just now, LinvilleGorge said:

Literally everything else. That's what opportunity cost is.

you can say that about everything...you make decision and you hope they work. if they do, you're a genius. if they don't than you Monday morning QB it. 

Again, nobody drafts thinking what they will have to pay them in 5 years. Nobody knows what the market will be in 5 years. You do no know who your coach will be in 5 years. You do not know what FAs you will sign in 5 years. 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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2 minutes ago, ericr0319 said:

you can say that about everything...you make decision and you hope they work. if they do, you're a genius. if they don't than you Monday morning QB it. 

Again, nobody drafts thinking what they will have to pay them in 5 years. Nobody knows what the market will be in 5 years. You do no know who your coach will be in 5 years. You do not know what FAs you will sign in 5 years. 

Yeah, you can say that about everything. That's the point. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Every choice you make requires sacrifice elsewhere.

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ericr0319 Collaborator

ericr0319

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3 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Yeah, you can say that about everything. That's the point. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Every choice you make requires sacrifice elsewhere.

agree, but you don't have the benefit of that during the draft. you do your scouting, your due diligence and you make the best selection possible. of course every move is going to impact something in the future, but you deal with that when it comes. 

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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I love the way fans become prisoners of the moment.

White had a good game, but go make a list of the top off-ball LBs for the entire season and look to see where they were drafted and how much they make.

Off-ball LBs are one of the most devalued spots in the draft and free agency, we can upgrade the position without spending a high draft pick on it.

 

 

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SCO96 Veteran

SCO96

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2 hours ago, pantherj said:

If the bpa at 8 is a Lb then you look for a trade partner. We already have an expensive 1st pick LB with great athleticism. You don't win today collecting top quality LBs. They don't effect the game enough to matter, the ball is tossed over their head down field, and to make matters worse Parsons is not good at defending the pass, so we'd get wrecked. No more bad decisions. We need to build up our passing attack in the draft until we are a dominant passing team. A LB can be added later in the draft if needed (P.S not needed).

Good points. The Chiefs won the SB last year and may be back in February if they handle the Bills this week. Quick Question...can anyone here name any of their starting linebackers?

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-career-int-by-a-linebacker#:~:text=Don Shinnick has made the,a linebacker%2C with 37 interceptions.

The above link takes you to an interesting list of LB's with the most interceptions in NFL history. The first nine of the list recorded 28 or more regular season INT's which is more than the best CB we've drafted (Chris Gamble...he retired with 27). If you could guarantee me that a LB would retire with 30 INT's (something only 6 have ever done) if we took him at 8, then  I "might" consider taking him. That's more than Darrell Revis had in his career (29). But, as you pointed out Parsons doesn't excel at that.

If a QB isn't there at 8 things could get interesting. I see the logic in trading back to accumulate picks, but that could backfire if we miss out on a guy we're targeting. If we don't trade back I'm assuming we'd take a CB, O-lineman, or pass rusher (interior or edge) to pair with Brown and Burns. 

 

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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42 minutes ago, AU-panther said:

I love the way fans become prisoners of the moment.

White had a good game, but go make a list of the top off-ball LBs for the entire season and look to see where they were drafted and how much they make.

Off-ball LBs are one of the most devalued spots in the draft and free agency, we can upgrade the position without spending a high draft pick on it.

 

 

I think we also have fans that are frozen in time. For all the shade thrown towards a guy like Rivera who had issues changing to suit the modern NFL, we sure do have a lot of fans caught in this same time capsule. 

Positional value exists because of the trends in the league as a whole. If you are going outside the box, it better be because you are planning on setting that trend rather than trying to live in the bygone era of NFL football. 

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LinvilleGorge Grand Master

LinvilleGorge

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4 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I think we also have fans that are frozen in time. For all the shade thrown towards a guy like Rivera who had issues changing to suit the modern NFL, we sure do have a lot of fans caught in this same time capsule. 

Positional value exists because of the trends in the league as a whole. If you are going outside the box, it better be because you are planning on setting that trend rather than trying to live in the bygone era of NFL football. 

Bingo. There's certain positions that should pretty much just be off the board in the top 10. Interior OL, in the box safeties, two down players (think RBs who aren't receiving threats or our run stopping DL), and yeah non-pass rushing LBs are there too. Sure, if you get a Luke caliber player the pick will prove worth it but you can't count on a guy being a GOAT level player.

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AU-panther Mentor

AU-panther

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1 hour ago, ericr0319 said:

what is the opportunity cost in drafting a MLB in the 1st round?

#8 pick is about $3.7m a year.

10th highest paid ILB, $11.8m

10th highest paid edge, $17m

Do you want to replace a $11.8m FA or a $17m FA for $3.7m?  Replacing the edge saves you about 50% more cap space.

This doesn't even factor in the idea that the edge rusher is more valuable to adding wins to your team than the MLB, that's an entirely different discussion, this is just purely looking at replacement cost in free agency.

On a side note, 10th RB is about $8m.  Being right 1/2 on edge rusher is almost equal to being right 2/2 if you are drafting a LB and RB.

If you draft high value positions you don't have to be right as often, you can use your money saved to fill spots in free agency. 

After the 1st round the chances of actually finding an above average player are so small you ignore this and start drafting guys you think can actually work out.

Also in the first round the really early picks are paid so much more that you really need to consider positional value.  For example the 3rd pick is almost $6m a year, if you draft a RB he is already almost a top 10 paid player at his position.  You have basically lost the one huge advantage of draft picks, cheap value.

 

 

 

 

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kungfoodude Grand Master

kungfoodude

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4 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Bingo. There's certain positions that should pretty much just be off the board in the top 10. Interior OL, in the box safeties, two down players (think RBs who aren't receiving threats or our run stopping DL), and yeah non-pass rushing LBs are there too. Sure, if you get a Luke caliber player the pick will prove worth it but you can't count on a guy being a GOAT level player.

Honestly, even guys like Barkley and CMC aren't likely to be franchise changing players and the positional value is low. Even freaks like Peterson or Henry are only capable of elevating a team so much. 

I hope we as a franchise can finally move into the modern era of NFL football. This will be the first draft in a long time where I have that hope. 

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