Joe Person: Panthers will prioritize re-signing Taylor Moton over Curtis Samuel

[panthers55]

8 hours ago, BrianS said:

I did some math on this QB situation earlier in the week.  I examined drafts from 1996 to 2015.  I defined "success" as a QB who started 80 games.  You could probably wiggle a bit on that, but I felt it was a good general "Well, he wasn't terrible" marker.  I stopped at 2015 because drafts after that wouldn't necessarily have had time to get 80 games into a QB.

Basically, the success rate for QB's drafted in the first round over the last 25 years is around 50%, it was 23 successful QB's out of 48 drafted.  It's a coin flip, yes, but . . .

The success rate for QB's *not* drafted in the first round?  11%.  21 successful QB's out of 193 drafted.  For every Tom Brady, Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott you get 9 Jimmy Pickles / Tony Pike / Colt McCoy.

You make a good point but I would think it would be interesting to separate pre and post rookie salary cap (2011) especially in the top 10. The knock before the cap was you had to pay your first rounder rookie more than your starter and you were so committed to them for years that they had plenty of time to develop and grow which often it takes . More recently it seems a few teams are moving on quickly no matter their draft position or at least bringing in other guys because the rookie salaries aren't so crippling.  So guys picked in later rounds have always been expendable in terms of money and wasted draft. So he is less likely to get the time to develop. I bet we move on from Greer after only 2 years.  Is it that these guys couldn't be developed into starters or is it they have a much shorter window to prove themselves so fewer succeed ? But if you picked a guy like in the second round and committed to him could he be just as successful as a first rounder? I just wonder if it is talent or development which makes the difference. 

[Rocky Davis]

5 hours ago, Moo Daeng said:

True but it's not as if Hurney would be making the decision given the pull of Rhule and Suleiman

This could have been one of the many reasons why Hurney was shown the door as well.

[bigskypanthersguy]

On 1/7/2021 at 5:45 PM, Captain Morgan said:

taking a quick look at Over The Cap, it looks like if we did all of those cuts, we'd have around 39 mill in cap space.  If Moton does cost 15, and I think it will be less, and actually had a first year cap hit of that 15 mill, we're looking at around 24 mill in cap space.  Rookies will take about 7 mill of that, leaving 14 million to fill a hell of a lot of holes.  If we work things out with Moton, we could maybe see a first year cap hit 11 mil, giving us around 18 mill to spend, unless other contracts are restructured.

Perhaps with the 17th game added, the cap will be a little higher than expected.

We really need to hit on another draft this year.  

 

We frankly need to hit on another two drafts if not three.

[LinvilleGorge]

21 hours ago, kungfoodude said:

I think you are somewhat wrong about that. People assume that Hurney was just a figurehead but a lot of the anecdotal evidence seems to suggest otherwise. 

Yeah, there was all this talk about a five year plan and not looking for quick fixes, etc. Then we made a lot of moves/decisions involving lots of cap space that were bandaids looking for quick fixes.