Joe Person: Panthers will prioritize re-signing Taylor Moton over Curtis Samuel

[Rags]

13 hours ago, Captain Morgan said:

taking a quick look at Over The Cap, it looks like if we did all of those cuts, we'd have around 39 mill in cap space.  If Moton does cost 15, and I think it will be less, and actually had a first year cap hit of that 15 mill, we're looking at around 24 mill in cap space.  Rookies will take about 7 mill of that, leaving 14 million to fill a hell of a lot of holes.  If we work things out with Moton, we could maybe see a first year cap hit 11 mil, giving us around 18 mill to spend, unless other contracts are restructured.

Perhaps with the 17th game added, the cap will be a little higher than expected.

We really need to hit on another draft this year.  

 

Get ready for another year Of FA no body really wants but we'll have to hope for the best.

[BrianS]

1 hour ago, catnip said:

Cutting Paradis would not help .  I think our backup (Larson) is a free agent so what do you do . Drafting a rookie gives us a new backup with no NFL experience . Keep Paradis one more year and draft a O-lineman that can do dual duty letting him get adjusted to the NFL .  If we can extend Anderson as mentioned , we have a chance to keep Samuel .  He balled out this season .You don't develop players to allow another team to pick them up .  

This dreamland really needs to come crashing down.

While I agree with the sentiment that you don't want to develop players only to see them walk, there are going to be times when this happens.  Curtis Samuel is the perfect storm of this.  His entire career here has been wildly inconsistent.  He's been great this year.  That doesn't take away from his very scary 55% catch rate over his career prior to 2020.

We've always known that CS had the ability to go fast and make people miss.  That was never the question with him.  It's always been his hands, and for three years he made everyone question it.  Now the question is "Was 2020 the truth or were the prior three years the truth?"  No one knows, and we won't know until we have a couple more years of data.

But here's the real problem:

I could make solid arguments for ANY of those teams signing Curtis Samuel and paying him 15 per.  They ALL have the room to do it and the need for a WR2.  Don't get me wrong!  I don't think he is a WR2.  I think he's a slot / motion guy.  He's been great this year in that role.  But someone will pay him WR2 money. 

Jags need receivers, and will be drafting a QB.  Likewise the Jets.

The Colts need someone to put across from TY Hilton.

The Patriots just plain need weapons.  DAMIERE BYRD played significant minutes for them!  Curtis would be a huge upgrade over that.

WTF . . . I mean, Ron is there, need I say more?

Bengals have a good piece in Tee Higgins, but AJ Green is 32.  They need another guy to pair up with what appears to be a legit franchise guy in Burrow.  Also, Curtis is a hero in Ohio from his college days, it probably wouldn't break his heart to go back there.

All of these teams can sign Curtis to more money than we can offer . . . without making any cuts or creating more dead space.  It just doesn't make sense for us to have so much money wrapped up in our WR's, especially with CMC on our roster.  Even if you manage to tweak things so that you resign Curtis, it means that without a doubt you lose DJ. 

That to me is the biggest problem of all.  DJ is far more valuable.  DJ with a real QB is a bona fide WR1.

Let's come down from dreamland and realize that someone will overpay Curtis, and that we'll be ok without him.

(And finally, if Curtis does come back for reasonable / hometown discount money, I'll be happy to see him here)

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, RoaringRiot said:

The Panthers hired cap expert says they can't keep both but @MHS831 on the Huddle says they can so I feel much better! 

Well, the hired cap expert should have done his job last year and said Marty WTF are we paying Shortan extra $13M for 2020 and Marty, why don’t you trade Turner for a 5th rounder instead of taking on $13.5M more for a guy who’s not likely to make it through the year. Then we’d have 3 years of Samuel prepaid.

That said, I agree with him that we could afford it but it would take us saying hey guys we fuged up 2020 trying to get young/rebuild and compete at the same time, let’s have a clear plan and target to win the division in 2022. First, we don’t know for sure Brees is retiring and second Tampa will be better and we were still 1-5 trying to compete in the division this year. Let’s get our poo together and only worry about paying our young talent.

Since we missed the golden opportunity this year, I’m assuming we’ll half ass our way through this year and if we get lucky to have a good draft again it will help cure the dumb FA moves. So you’re right we can’t afford Samuel.

[stbugs]

14 minutes ago, BrianS said:

This dreamland really needs to come crashing down.

While I agree with the sentiment that you don't want to develop players only to see them walk, there are going to be times when this happens.  Curtis Samuel is the perfect storm of this.  His entire career here has been wildly inconsistent.  He's been great this year.  That doesn't take away from his very scary 55% catch rate over his career prior to 2020.

We've always known that CS had the ability to go fast and make people miss.  That was never the question with him.  It's always been his hands, and for three years he made everyone question it.  Now the question is "Was 2020 the truth or were the prior three years the truth?"  No one knows, and we won't know until we have a couple more years of data.

But here's the real problem:

I could make solid arguments for ANY of those teams signing Curtis Samuel and paying him 15 per.  They ALL have the room to do it and the need for a WR2.  Don't get me wrong!  I don't think he is a WR2.  I think he's a slot / motion guy.  He's been great this year in that role.  But someone will pay him WR2 money. 

Jags need receivers, and will be drafting a QB.  Likewise the Jets.

The Colts need someone to put across from TY Hilton.

The Patriots just plain need weapons.  DAMIERE BYRD played significant minutes for them!  Curtis would be a huge upgrade over that.

WTF . . . I mean, Ron is there, need I say more?

Bengals have a good piece in Tee Higgins, but AJ Green is 32.  They need another guy to pair up with what appears to be a legit franchise guy in Burrow.  Also, Curtis is a hero in Ohio from his college days, it probably wouldn't break his heart to go back there.

All of these teams can sign Curtis to more money than we can offer . . . without making any cuts or creating more dead space.  It just doesn't make sense for us to have so much money wrapped up in our WR's, especially with CMC on our roster.  Even if you manage to tweak things so that you resign Curtis, it means that without a doubt you lose DJ. 

That to me is the biggest problem of all.  DJ is far more valuable.  DJ with a real QB is a bona fide WR1.

Let's come down from dreamland and realize that someone will overpay Curtis, and that we'll be ok without him.

(And finally, if Curtis does come back for reasonable / hometown discount money, I'll be happy to see him here)

Man it sucks to see that chart and realize we could have been on the top of that chart and kept rolling it over to 2022 to have a solid young core and make a freaking FA splash with a rookie QB in year 2. Including the inevitable Teddy here in 2021, we spent $80M in cap on Teddy, Okung, Short, Weatherly, Apple and Roberts. So, for a handful of games of OK tackle play, disappointing QB play and nothing burgers, we missed out on a 3rd and 5th comp, $80M in cap, and a top 3 pick in every round.

[BrianS]

3 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Man it sucks to see that chart and realize we could have been on the top of that chart and kept rolling it over to 2022 to have a solid young core and make a freaking FA splash with a rookie QB in year 2. Including the inevitable Teddy here in 2021, we spent $80M in cap on Teddy, Okung, Short, Weatherly, Apple and Roberts. So, for a handful of games of OK tackle play, disappointing QB play and nothing burgers, we missed out on a 3rd and 5th comp, $80M in cap, and a top 3 pick in every round.

As much as it sucks seeing those guys with huge cap space, it does make me smile seeing this one:

 

[stbugs]

49 minutes ago, BrianS said:

As much as it sucks seeing those guys with huge cap space, it does make me smile seeing this one:

 

That is nice. 2 division teams, 3 NFC playoff teams and 5 of the last 6 in the NFC. While it’s nice to see, sure would have been nice if we were prepared to take advantage of it. So glad Marty is gone but even he had the ability to screw with the 2021 season. Losing those two comp picks and all that massive amount of cap when we knew NO and Atlanta had cap issues and we knew Brady/Brees would both be gone in 1-2 years and he still could not be a good GM and take advantage of the all clear signal we’d get in 2022.

Also, again for all the comp picks don’t matter folks, we need a QB and Tom Brady was the best value draft pick ever. Guess what, we all know he was a 6th round pick. Do we all know it was a 6th round compensatory pick? That’s right, Belichick and his GM didn’t decide to sign Weatherly or Burris or Roberts and kept that comp pick that got them Tom Brady.

[panthers55]

10 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Think outside the box, folks....Marty is gone....the first thing I would do is check out existing contracts.   What if I told you that we could keep Samuel and Moton? 

We could rework some contracts to extend a few players and give them less money for 2021--for example Anderson, who has a $12m cap number.   Extend him 3 years, and make 2021 a low number.  Then you could pay him a large amount in 2022--because you cut Paradis after June 1, and keep that $10m in the cap bank to pay Anderson in 2022 and 2023.  So you get the money from Anderson, giving you cap room to sign Samuel.  You then wait until June 1, cut Paradis.  Basically you are keeping Samuel and cutting Paradis post june 1.

Exactly. We can sign who we want. First year cap hits are usually the prorated signing bonus and a small salary given the signing bonus serves as his salary in year one. Now in subsequent years it goes up substantially but the first year in particular will be cheap. For Moton it could be as little as 10 million or less

[panthers55]

4 hours ago, RoaringRiot said:

The Panthers hired cap expert says they can't keep both but @MHS831 on the Huddle says they can so I feel much better! 

Likely a negotiating strategy. Who says yeah we have plenty of money and can sign whoever we want? Agents would have a field day with that. Plus you manage public expectation low and perhaps surprise them positively instead of negatively.

[SmartyHurney3]

You guys have Hurney hysteria. The Panthers hired Suleiman a year ago to take care of contracts. I know you guys love to blame literally everything on Hurney, but he's been the man doing the contracts for a year now.

Signing Moton over Samuel is a 'duh' moment. It's not controversial, or debatable, it's just how you build a team. You don't need 3 very good - elite receivers with an elite pass catching runningback that also doubles as a receiver. The only way any team in our position would keep Samuel is if Christian McCaffrey was traded this off-season, otherwise there is no point at stacking a single position group this heavily, especially when the production of this group is largely predicated by the quarterback, and offensive coordinator — two things the Panthers are not sure on at this moment.

What a silly discussion.

[RoaringRiot]

30 minutes ago, panthers55 said:

Likely a negotiating strategy. Who says yeah we have plenty of money and can sign whoever we want? Agents would have a field day with that. Plus you manage public expectation low and perhaps surprise them positively instead of negatively.

No. They aren't signing Curtis

[BrianS]

27 minutes ago, stbugs said:

That is nice. 2 division teams, 3 NFC playoff teams and 5 of the last 6 in the NFC. While it’s nice to see, sure would have been nice if we were prepared to take advantage of it. So glad Marty is gone but even he had the ability to screw with the 2021 season. Losing those two comp picks and all that massive amount of cap when we knew NO and Atlanta had cap issues and we knew Brady/Brees would both be gone in 1-2 years and he still could not be a good GM and take advantage of the all clear signal we’d get in 2022.

Also, again for all the comp picks don’t matter folks, we need a QB and Tom Brady was the best value draft pick ever. Guess what, we all know he was a 6th round pick. Do we all know it was a 6th round compensatory pick? That’s right, Belichick and his GM didn’t decide to sign Weatherly or Burris or Roberts and kept that comp pick that got them Tom Brady.

I did some math on this QB situation earlier in the week.  I examined drafts from 1996 to 2015.  I defined "success" as a QB who started 80 games.  You could probably wiggle a bit on that, but I felt it was a good general "Well, he wasn't terrible" marker.  I stopped at 2015 because drafts after that wouldn't necessarily have had time to get 80 games into a QB.

Basically, the success rate for QB's drafted in the first round over the last 25 years is around 50%, it was 23 successful QB's out of 48 drafted.  It's a coin flip, yes, but . . .

The success rate for QB's *not* drafted in the first round?  11%.  21 successful QB's out of 193 drafted.  For every Tom Brady, Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott you get 9 Jimmy Pickles / Tony Pike / Colt McCoy.

[top dawg]

14 hours ago, Khaki Lackey said:

I’d rather keep Samuel over Anderson if I had to choose.

Perhaps, but don't downplay Robbie's contribution to the entire receiving corps. His very presence---athleticism and speed---opens things up for everyone else. Teddy also wasn't one to maximize Robbie's skill-set which (in my mind) tended to minimize the optics and importance of Robbie in the offense. But, he was still a thousand-yard receiver!

[Moo Daeng]

Joe Person is like reading yesterday's weather forecast.

[stbugs]

31 minutes ago, BrianS said:

I did some math on this QB situation earlier in the week.  I examined drafts from 1996 to 2015.  I defined "success" as a QB who started 80 games.  You could probably wiggle a bit on that, but I felt it was a good general "Well, he wasn't terrible" marker.  I stopped at 2015 because drafts after that wouldn't necessarily have had time to get 80 games into a QB.

Basically, the success rate for QB's drafted in the first round over the last 25 years is around 50%, it was 23 successful QB's out of 48 drafted.  It's a coin flip, yes, but . . .

The success rate for QB's *not* drafted in the first round?  11%.  21 successful QB's out of 193 drafted.  For every Tom Brady, Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott you get 9 Jimmy Pickles / Tony Pike / Colt McCoy.

Yep and the funny thing is that even the not first round guys like Brees and Fabre were in the first couple picks of the 2nd, heck Brees would be a first rounder today.

Tom Brady’s and Russell Wilson's are every decade type of picks. They are there but counting on them is crazy. If you want a QB and don’t want to keep buying lottery tickets you should go 1st round. It’s why Will Grier was a waste. Once we felt Cam wasn’t the long term guy you’ve got to plan for the next one not draft and sign mediocre ones.

People are right that there can be hits and misses and that top 3 doesn’t mean a guy chosen 8th won’t be better but that’s the GMs and their evaluations. KC and Houston obviously liked Mahomes and Watson more than Trubisky. If we find our Mahomes or Watson, I’d 100% rather be at pick 3 than 8 so that Atlanta doesn’t scoop them.