Playoff QBs and where they were drafted

[CRA]

6 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

Holy poo man.

You were saying that the draft slot for the QB's in the playoffs was 29, disproving that you need to move up to get our guy.

I stated that you are allowing Tom Brady and Russell Wilson to influence the outcome too much, those guys, at those draft slots were unicorns.  Hence you are allowing two of the very best QB values ever to sway your outcome.

might as well not even include Brady when talking about QBs/drafts.  He is a unicorn when amongst unicorns.

he is the GOAT.  Even Peyton and Joe know that.

[t96]

35 minutes ago, WarHeel said:

Of the 14 listed your average is around pick 29. So deep in the first. So does this crush the notion that we need to trade up to “get our guy?”

Stupid to take the mean with that outlier sticking out down at the bottom there... 9 out of the 14 were picked in the top 11.

[thefuzz]

2 minutes ago, CRA said:

might as well not even include Brady when talking about QBs/drafts.  He is a unicorn when amongst unicorns.

he is the GOAT.  Even Peyton and Joe know that.

No doubt on the first part, I don't agree with the 2nd, but that's just me.  Some people think Moss is better than Rice.

 

[CRA]

2 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

No doubt on the first part, I don't agree with the 2nd, but that's just me.  Some people think Moss is better than Rice.

 

Brady is my most hated athlete of all time.   It is always painful to type he sits #1.  I mean, I can make an argument for Montana.  He was my #1. I just no longer buy my own argument.  But I can make one given he played in a different era.

I got Rice #1.  He basically is entrenched for me like Michael Jordan.   No one's stats and play will leap him going forward.

[TheCasillas]

35 minutes ago, SetfreexX said:

But they're in...

are they bc of their specific performance? Pretty sure all three of those of those teams started multiple QBs this year.

[WarHeel]

15 minutes ago, thefuzz said:

Holy poo man.

You were saying that the draft slot for the QB's in the playoffs was 29, disproving that you need to move up to get our guy.

I stated that you are allowing Tom Brady and Russell Wilson to influence the outcome too much, those guys, at those draft slots were unicorns.  Hence you are allowing two of the very best QB values ever to sway your outcome.

 

9 minutes ago, t96 said:

Stupid to take the mean with that outlier sticking out down at the bottom there... 9 out of the 14 were picked in the top 11.

I agree. Which is why taking them out still leaves you with the average pick around the 14 range for the remaining 12 QB. Well above pick 8. So I ask again, do we need to trade up?

[saX man]

I prefer taking a look at these franchise's situations overall versus who's simply in the playoffs this year.  You have to identify the franchises that are actually in a good spot versus the one's that either went all in or backed into the playoffs.

So let's look at the top QBs drafted since 2016:

Quote

 

2016: Goff (1), Wentz (2) 

2017: Trubisky (2), Mahomes (10), Watson (12)

2018: Mayfield (1), Darnold (3), Allen (7), Rosen (10)

2019: Kyler (1), Daniel Jones (6)

2020: Burrow (1), Tua (5), Herbert (7) 

So Watson (12), Mahomes (10), & Allen (7) have become something special.  Burrow seems promising.  Tua, Herbert (especially) & Murray both look decent but the rest have sputtered in varying fashions. The thing was, none were really THAT huge of a “can’t miss” type minus Burrow.  Mahomes was a "project", Watson was a leader but many said had limitations.  Murray was maybe playing baseball/rose super quickly, Allen, Darnold & Baker had big question marks. 

Rams: SB appearance, have long term coach

Eagles: SB win, coach looked good, now looks like crap, same with Wentz (they are an enigma)

Chiefs: SB win.  Good stuff in KC.

Bills: Arguably the hottest team in the league, w/long term coach, & Allen looks awesome after some years of improvement.  Love how Beane built things.

Bears: Trubisky is a dud but they have a decent coach and may get into the playoffs. Were a crossbar away from a playoff win in 18'.  (Imagine that team w/Watson)

Browns: Should be in the playoffs, Mayfield seems there to stay for a bit.  Looking decent.

Dolphins: Great new coach, awesome defense, Tua needs to work on it but has looked good in spurts.

Cardinals & Chargers are mid-builds but look promising with their young guys. Texans are getting rebuilt bc of F5 Bill O'Brien

 

I still prefer getting our guy.

 

[KSpan]

For this to be truly useful we'd need to know how many QBs were drafted in each of those classes and when so we can see the true demand for QBs in those drafts. As I mentioned in another thread there are a ton of teams looking for QBs this year and sure, Aaron Rodgers was taken 24th in 2005 (with Jason Campbell, who IMO got an incredibly raw deal in his NFL situation, taken right behind him) but the only QB taken before him was Alex Smith at 1 and those were the only 3 QBs taken at all in the first 2 rounds of that draft. There's no way in hell anything like that happens this year.

 

 

[WarHeel]

51 minutes ago, t96 said:

9 out of 14 are top 11 picks... This is hopefully going to be the last time we're picking in the top 11 in many many years. Now is our opportunity and it couldn't come at a better time, with a stacked QB class this year. Even if we have to trade up, we absolutely need to get our guy at QB in this draft. It's a no brainer.

FYI after some digging it turns out 50% of the teams sitting at home have a starting QB that was drafted in the top 6. 10/18 have been drafted in the top 12.  4 of them were #1 overall picks. Just food for thought. 
 

Just because we “go get our guy” doesn’t mean he is going to be THE guy. 
 

[micnificent28]

Stop this kind of thinking. This doesn't mean horse poo. Obviously if your picking you want to have your choice of your guy no matter who is available. If your going to the prom you want your choice...not some oh well there will be some nice girls after everyone has found a date nonsense. Yes you can get lucky but you don't wanna depend on luck.

[stbugs]

1 hour ago, WarHeel said:

Of the 14 listed your average is around pick 29. So deep in the first. So does this crush the notion that we need to trade up to “get our guy?”

Seriously? An average? The median pick is 9 and you want to use a statistic where Tom Brady, arguably the luckiest or best value pick of all time skews it so badly that the average is triple the median.

I removed all my first round fluff. I misread your post. Thought it was the same we should draft a non QB and get a QB later.

By the way, I kind of agree with you that I am not in favor of trading up. We fuged up our chance at 3. If we traded up to 3, it would honestly piss me off knowing we had it.

[stbugs]

27 minutes ago, WarHeel said:

FYI after some digging it turns out 50% of the teams sitting at home have a starting QB that was drafted in the top 6. 10/18 have been drafted in the top 12.  4 of them were #1 overall picks. Just food for thought. 
 

Just because we “go get our guy” doesn’t mean he is going to be THE guy. 
 

I agree with this. That said, we have to identify our guy(s). From there they make the decision. I really hope we don’t have to trade up and lose next year’s first because we couldn’t figure out a way to Philly the Washington game.

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, WarHeel said:

FYI after some digging it turns out 50% of the teams sitting at home have a starting QB that was drafted in the top 6. 10/18 have been drafted in the top 12.  4 of them were #1 overall picks. Just food for thought. 
 

Just because we “go get our guy” doesn’t mean he is going to be THE guy. 
 

Drafting a guy in the first doesn't guarantee success, but drafting him after the first almost guarantees no success.

 

[PootieNunu]

3 hours ago, WarHeel said:

Of the 14 listed your average is around pick 29. So deep in the first. So does this crush the notion that we need to trade up to “get our guy?”

That depends on who the new GM, coaching staff, and owner decides is "our guy". If they think he will be gone, they trade up, if not we stay put.