Carolina Panthers 1st round draft mini breakdown

[Jesse]

The reason why the Matt Cassels and Ryan Fitzpatricks of the NFL stay in the league so long is their ability to run the playbook and read NFL defenses. Those are the bare minimum requirements for NFL QBs. If Fields has trouble reading through his progressions then that's someone I don't want to draft. 

[Woodie]

37 minutes ago, Varking said:

Fields literally has the same skill set except he can throw better and has done it for longer. He’s also probably going to post a better 40 time than Lance. 

I watched several of Lance's games on replay over the summer, and he really does have the skillset to be great.  He has a strong arm, is very accurate with excellent ball placement, makes good decisions, and usually makes the correct read.  He's not timid or afraid to make the tough pass, but he also isn't careless.  He plays smart and can make every throw with touch and accuracy.  And this isn't even touching on his running ability. 

His style as a passer is reminiscent of Rodgers, and he runs with speed and power similar to Cam.  One thing he does very well is when he scrambles, he keeps his eyes downfield.  But, when he makes the decision to run, he puts his head down, and nobody's going tackle him with arm tackles.

With that said, he's not a sure thing.  As you and others have said, his level of competition is nowhere near what he will see in the NFL.  And he will need to be more careful as a runner. 

He is so much stronger and faster than most QB's, that he sometimes initiates contact when it would probably be more prudent to go down.  He also tends to throw a little low on some shorter throws (not all the time, but it does need to improve).  Although he is generally good technically, he could stand to tighten things up a bit.  One of the biggest problems he will deal with as a result of his level of competition is simply understanding the complex defenses he will see in the NFL.  He has done well where he is, but it will be a big jump at the next level.  It's why I think he'll be best served going to a team where he can sit and develop for a year, similar to how sitting really helped Mahomes.

He's also known as a very hard worker who is willing to put the time in, so I feel really confident he'll be able to make the adjustment to the NFL and truly has the potential to be a star.

[Woodie]

One other point I want to make.  While we all tend to stat-evaluate guys we haven't seen much of, don't get too caught up with that from Lance.  The system at NDSU is more run based.  And the coaches called a lot of designed QB runs.  His running numbers and lack of big passing games was more a reflection of his offense than his ablility to generate big plays in the passing game.  Based on what I have seen from him, if he was put in a high volume passing offense like a lot of these other top QB's, he'd have put up big numbers as well.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Woodie

[LinvilleGorge]

37 minutes ago, ncfan said:

1. Not sure who you were watching if you had concerns watching Fields deep ball in the Championship game.  Dude was putting it on the money and you clearly must have been watching Lawerence who struggled in that game.

2. "Lance is Bigger"

Lance is 6'4 226

https://gobison.com/sports/football/roster/trey-lance/8970

Fields is 6'3 228

https://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/roster/justin-fields/

And ive heard direct quote from a fww scouts, a person who works in a NFL FO, and have read from a few others with actual connections in the scouting comminty comparing a lot of Fields to Mahomes coming out of Texas Tech FWIW

Itll be him or Wilson at 2 and it wouldn't shock me one bit to see Atlanta pull a Chicago style trade 1 spot to 3 if Fields falls

Watch again. He had great success throwing deep but the receiver had to slow down and wait for just about every one of them.

Fields had a great game and it out him back on my potential wishlist, but don't let the results distract from the reality that the ball placement wasn't great on several of those throws.

[SmittysLawnGuy]

11 minutes ago, Woodie said:

One other point I want to make.  While we all tend to stat-evaluate guys we haven't seen much of, don't get too caught up with that from Lance.  The system at NDSU is more run based.  And the coaches called a lot of designed QB runs.  His running numbers and lack of big passing games was more a reflection of his offense than his ablility to generate big plays in the passing game.  Based on what I have seen from him, if he was put in a high volume passing offense like a lot of these other top QB's, he'd have put up big numbers as well.

Pretty sure he was pulled at half in most of his games too. So that 200yrd passing a game talk is very misleading.

[saX man]

1 hour ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Oh, he's definitely getting scouts' attention. I'm sure every team on the hunt for a QB in this draft is doing homework on Mac Jones. Scouts go a LOT deeper down the list than the media does. That's why virtually every year there are some guys drafted fairly high that have even us football nerds being like...

Eagles, Seahawks & Raiders seem to be a few of those franchises that do that as of late (for better or worse)

[Woodie]

2 minutes ago, SmittysLawnGuy said:

Pretty sure he was pulled at half in most of his games too. So that 200yrd passing a game talk is very misleading.

It's why we've got to be careful looking at stats when making evaluations and forming impressions.  Context is huge, and sometimes, stats do lie.  

[jfra78]

1 hour ago, *FreeFua* said:

Verge, what do you think of Ridder?

This is what I want to know, maybe we can get Ridder or Jones in the 2nd.  

Edited January 5, 2021 by jfra78

[top dawg]

53 minutes ago, Varking said:

I wasn’t talking about draft experts, I was talking about this forum. 

Why? No one here (that we know of) has any say-so anyway! We're just slinging around opinions based on very limited knowledge as it pertains to drafting or the business dealings of the FO. 

[ncfan]

36 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Watch again. He had great success throwing deep but the receiver had to slow down and wait for just about every one of them.

Fields had a great game and it out him back on my potential wishlist, but don't let the results distract from the reality that the ball placement wasn't great on several of those throws.

Watched it live and watched it several other times

Actually just looked again on my DVR

Literally the only one that a WR had to "slow down" was the one where the ball traveled over 60 yards in the air.

 

 

[AU-panther]

1 hour ago, Varking said:

Fields literally has the same skill set except he can throw better and has done it for longer. He’s also probably going to post a better 40 time than Lance. 

Evaluators aren't just looking at measurables or stats.  They are looking at abilities and traits.

Maybe in Lance's 24 throws a game he is showing a better ability to get to his 2nd and 3rd reads than Fields is in his 36 throws a game.

Maybe Lance is adjusting to pressure better than Fields in his limited throws.

I'm not saying he is or isn't the better prospect, but fans have a bad habit of being box score scouts and combine scouts.   There is more to evaluation than that.

QB A: 67% completion, 174 yards a game, 28 TDs, Zero interceptions.

QB B: 66% completion, 204 yards a game, 30 TDs, eight interceptions.

A is Lance, B is Cam

Lance's YPG don't concern me as much as some of the accuracy numbers I've seen.  I would like to see some of those numbers adjusted for depth of target or based on different depths.

Normally I'm not of the opinion that accuracy can really be improved much, most guys are who they are by the time they make it to the pros, but Josh Allen is proving otherwise.

Speaking of Josh Allen, I think he is definitely going to help how some teams view Lance.

 

 

 

[LinvilleGorge]

7 minutes ago, ncfan said:

Watched it live and watched it several other times

Actually just looked again on my DVR

Literally the only one that a WR had to "slow down" was the one where the ball traveled over 60 yards in the air.

 

 

[ncfan]

7 minutes ago, LinvilleGorge said:

Really Really 

If you call that slowing up, id  Love for you to show me some QBs->Wrs where they didn't  "slow up"

[LinvilleGorge]

11 minutes ago, ncfan said:

Really Really 

If you call that slowing up, id  Love for you to show me some QBs->Wrs where they didn't  "slow up"

This is not slowing down