Cost to trade up

[ForJimmy]

1 minute ago, ncfan said:

The whole value chart goes out the window of a team trying to trade uo for QB

This is what I’m worried about... 

[stirs]

Did Rhule have "all world" QB's in his college years?

[07579394]

No sence for up to Wilson,but Lawrence i fell ok.

And will they?No,so let's wait for Lance.

[Peon Awesome]

It would be karmic justice to trade up and nab this year's Tua, only for this year's Herbert to be available at 8. Then when we inevitably suck,  we end up losing our top 5 pick next year (plus an early 2nd this year) in the trade. Be careful what you wish for. Especially when what you're wishing for is nothing close to a sure thing.

[panther252]

I'd love it if we were aggressive and traded up to get our guy if he's there. Sometimes you have no choice if you believe in a guy. Look at what the Bills did. They went from 12 to 7 to trade with Tampa to get Josh Allen to jump ahead of Arizona who ended up settling for Josh Rosen. If they believe in a guy I'll be all for the trade even if it's steep. 

[CarolinaNCSU]

53 minutes ago, stirs said:

Did Rhule have "all world" QB's in his college years?

Did he ever win anything meaningful...?  A great QB might've helped a bit. 

[GoobyPls]

A franchise QB is worth more than two first round picks, if that’s all it takes I’ll do it.

[DaveThePanther2008]

If you trade up for a QB you better be 100% sure that he's a surefire franchise QB.  Especially if you trade your 2022 #1 pick. 

You are trading 3 picks for one.   The only ones I would trade up with would be Wilson or Fields. 

Lance and Jones are going to be there at 8. 

[SOJA]

If we do trade up in order to recoup some of our assests what if we trade Teddy? 

Nick Foles got a 4th last year with a terrible deal. 

Teddy has an attractive contract and for two more years. I think we could steal a second from someone like the 9ers 

[Mother Grabber]

spend a 1st and 2nd for wilson, or hang tight for lance. I'm ok with either. I think wilson will bulk up, and be a solid starter for a long time. Lance is more of a gamble, but has a higher potential upside. I trust our current staff to know if they can tap into that or not. I hope they can, and we can stay at 8 to get a future great.

[Raleigh PF]

This from the Draft Network...

[BrianS]

9 hours ago, ncfan said:

The whole value chart goes out the window of a team trying to trade uo for QB

This is exactly it.  That chart is just a general rule.  I absolutely do look at it and use it, but you have to consider the situation in hand as well.  The cost to move up to the top 4 or 5 this year will far exceed the numeric value assigned because of the QB class.

Here's what not enough people consider.

Let's say you are offered the chance to move up from 8 to 4, you give up your first and second this year as well as your first and third next year.  In this draft, that's probably a fairly realistic scenario.  That gives you a chance to draft one of the top four QB's this year.

Bearing in mind that there is absolutely no sure thing when drafting a QB, what if you instead drafted a QB with all four of the picks you just gave up?  You now bought four lottery tickets instead of one.  I would argue that statistically, you're probably more likely to find a franchise guy with the four picks you give up than the one you gain.

If the club is really dedicated to watching analytics and using those numbers to help inform their decisions, someone will know the actual answer to those sorts of questions.  It's this sort of thinking that someone needs to consider.  If QB is the most important position on the field, you shouldn't be giving up multiple picks to get one chance, you should simply take multiple chances to find your guy.

Sure, maybe you do get SUPER lucky and find TWO franchise guys with those picks.  SO WHAT?!?!?!  Now you have an asset that you can trade to another team who DIDN'T get lucky.

[Waldo]

Too damn high!

Realistically a move up to 5 is about as far as I want to see us trade up if we feel we have to do the damn thing. I really dislike the idea of losing next years 1st or this years second. At this point I'm hoping Lance slides to us and he is worth it. If not, we will have to gamble big time. 

 

[NAS]

11 hours ago, AU-panther said:

With all of the talk about drafting a QB I'm seeing a lot of wishful thinking about the cost of moving up in the draft.

To go from 8 to 3 is about an 800 point jump based off of the trade value chart.

2021 NFL Trade Value Chart (drafttek.com)

Our 2nd this year is worth 510.

Future year picks are usually valued as a round later.  So a mid round 1st rounder next year would be worth around 420 (equal to pick 16 in the second round). 

510+420 = 930 but usually there is a premium on QBs.

Personally I think this years 2nd and next years 1st would be the starting point for a trade and honestly I think there will be several teams looking to trade up so I expect it to even cost more.

I'm not saying we should or shouldn't but if we think we need to jump Atlanta to get QB3 its not going to be cheap.

What if we like Lance but are worried about him making it to 8?  Going to 6 is only about a 200 point jump which would be a 3rd rounder.

In theory you could possibly draft 2 QBs, Lance and whoever you draft with your 1st next year, or 1 QB (Fields or Wilson) this year .

Normally I'm not a huge fan of trading up for non-QBs, but for a QB I would definitely entertain the idea.

Great post.  I am fine with picking Lance at 8 but also afraid someone will jump us.  We need to move up to pick 5 or 6 to ensure we draft a best available QB.