Assessing the upcoming Draft and Needs of those in front of us

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, stbugs said:

You need to see Detroit and Atlanta as QB potential spots. Stafford can easily be released after this year and Ryan after next year. Atlanta could easily be in full rebuild mode after 2021 based on their big contracts. Detroit needs to try something else as well. Will they decide to go that way? Who knows, but they absolutely could go QB if they find someone they like better, especially Detroit where they’d save a mint on QB $$$ from 2022-2025.

Possible, yes, highly probable, no.  At worst one takes a QB.  Both taking a QB is very slim.  With both places having new coaches and proven veteran QBs already on the roster, why would they jettison them and signal a rebuild with a rookie QB?  It doesn't make too much sense unless you are looking purely at the cap.  New Orleans has shown the League how to kick the can down the road indefinitely.  Rebuilding is the time that teams unload a bunch of large contracts.  Detroit is closer than that than Atlanta.  The Falcon's futility is baffling when you look at their roster.

[TheProcess]

Just now, ClawOn said:

Agreed. Tua doesn't look like he has it. They could move on like the Cardinals did after a year of Rosen. 

Tua may or may not have it, but he wasn't their problem. They just fired one of their problems. If they get a better scheme fit and some weapons worthy if stepping on a field, we will then know more about Tua

[MHS831]

1 minute ago, 45catfan said:

Do you sit top 10 picks on the bench to groom?  Rogers was at the bottom of round one in his draft class as well as Love last year.  Top 10 picks ( top 7 picks more specifically) play day one.

That is the dilemma---so they are trapped in a contract squeeze.  While Atlanta would LOVE to move on, a post June 1 cut would still cost $23m and you have a rookie QB.  My point?  Why draft a young, high risk QB when you have an established veteran on the roster who you know you are going to cut in a year, when you can afford to do it.  You may not draft in such a good QB draft so early next year---and developing the QB slowly has been advantageous.  (I recently read an article (History of rookie QBs) that listed the day 1, rookie starters from 2012 up until 2017.  Of those (15, I think) 8 were busts and the other was tweener Derek Carr.  So there is merit to your Rogers/Love comment.

Most first round QBs sit as long as possible, but they are often thrown into battle prematurely (my opinion)-- Herbert sat until he couldn't, and so did Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Murray, etc.  Darnold started day 1, fwiw, as did Burrow this year.  So if you take a high risk player (I would call Wilson and Lance high risk considering where they will go, etc.) and put them in a high risk role, the results are probably not going to be good. 

Therefore, Atlanta would actually be smart to draft a QB (picking this early) to groom for a year under Ryan, and releasing Ryan next year (when the dead cap is not huge) and the young QB has been developed.  HOWEVER, do you do that when your defense has the reputation of being the NFL's bitch?

 

 

 

 

[MHS831]

15 minutes ago, ClawOn said:

Agreed. Tua doesn't look like he has it. They could move on like the Cardinals did after a year of Rosen. 

I thought so too, but most experts (right now) are saying "no"---not this year. 

[MHS831]

I think about Brady and the "fit" we would like at QB----using Burrow and Teddy as my "type" setters, and I really wonder about Jones or Trask.  I know, I know--just a thought--no reason for thinking it other than what Brady has seemed to like.

[ClawOn]

16 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Tua may or may not have it, but he wasn't their problem. They just fired one of their problems. If they get a better scheme fit and some weapons worthy if stepping on a field, we will then know more about Tua

I guess any QB could benefit from the perfect system fit, but the reality is that Fitzpatrick was much better than Tua, and Fitzpatrick is just pretty good. 

[MHS831]

While this is considered a good QB draft, the #4 QB taken in previous 6 drafts:

• 2020:  Jordan Love, 26th Packers
• 2019:  Drew Lock, 42nd  Broncos
• 2018: Josh Rosen, 10th  Cardinals  This is the only recent draft that had 4 QBs taken in the top 10.  Most drafts did not have 4 QBs taken in the first round.  This draft is expected to be similar to the 2018 draft, fwiw.
• 2017:  Deshon Kiser 52nd  Browns
• 2016:  Christian Hackenburg 51st Jets
• 2015: Sean Mannion, 89th  Rams

 

 

[gmonjimbo]

In my opinion it is way too early for the Dolphins to move on from Tua. I don't see Fields or Wilson graded ahead of him. The Rosen situation made sense because a new regime came in and they wanted their own guy and they had the no.1 overall pick. I see Miami improving their offense, to get a better assessment of Tua's ability. I agree with another poster, I dont see BOTH Atlanta and Detroit moving on from their current QBs. But, I know its easier to complain about a doomsday scenario where 6 QBs are taken in the top 7 and then we draft LB and DT in rounds 1 and 2. 

[TheProcess]

48 minutes ago, ClawOn said:

I guess any QB could benefit from the perfect system fit, but the reality is that Fitzpatrick was much better than Tua, and Fitzpatrick is just pretty good. 

I don't think Fitz was any better at all, just a media narrative. They labeled Fitz as the savior, the closer because of one game against the Raiders. The offensive coordinator admitted to not being prepared for looks from a new DC in that game. Raiders had just fired their DC and promoted Marinelli who offered new looks. Fitz was very lucky in this game. A dump off to RB Myles Gaskins, who spun out of a tackle and went 60 yards for a TD. Gaskins has never, and may never again make a play like that. Then the hail mary while getting his head ripped, with a defender falling down to leave the receiver uncovered. Great job getting the ball in the air, lucky result. By the way, this game was 16-13 when the change was made. 

Tua was 6-3 as a starter, Fitz was 4-3 as a starter.

Tua beat the  Rams, Cardinals, Chargers, Patriots, Bengals, Raiders*

Fitz beat the  Jaguars, Jets, Jets, 49ers.

That 49er game happened just as they lost half their team to injuries and were trying to figure out and make adjustments. Just a depleted team in that game. 3 of 4 wins against two worst teams in the league with a combined 3-29 record 

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

That is the dilemma---so they are trapped in a contract squeeze.  While Atlanta would LOVE to move on, a post June 1 cut would still cost $23m and you have a rookie QB.  My point?  Why draft a young, high risk QB when you have an established veteran on the roster who you know you are going to cut in a year, when you can afford to do it.  You may not draft in such a good QB draft so early next year---and developing the QB slowly has been advantageous.  (I recently read an article (History of rookie QBs) that listed the day 1, rookie starters from 2012 up until 2017.  Of those (15, I think) 8 were busts and the other was tweener Derek Carr.  So there is merit to your Rogers/Love comment.

Most first round QBs sit as long as possible, but they are often thrown into battle prematurely (my opinion)-- Herbert sat until he couldn't, and so did Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Murray, etc.  Darnold started day 1, fwiw, as did Burrow this year.  So if you take a high risk player (I would call Wilson and Lance high risk considering where they will go, etc.) and put them in a high risk role, the results are probably not going to be good. 

Therefore, Atlanta would actually be smart to draft a QB (picking this early) to groom for a year under Ryan, and releasing Ryan next year (when the dead cap is not huge) and the young QB has been developed.  HOWEVER, do you do that when your defense has the reputation of being the NFL's bitch?

 

 

 

 

Yeah you do. No one position is going to matter as much. Say they get a lock down corner but Ryan moves on and they rotate QBs for the next 9 years. Who's going to matter more? Sustain or Fields (I'm just picking names). A rookie QB on that rookie contract will free up a lot of cap space that can help a defense more than one specific player. 

[MHS831]

2 hours ago, mickeye76 said:

A trade up seems to be the only way we gonna get a top 3 QB.  If the dolphins would switch spots for our 2022 first and our 2021 third round pick I would do that.  If it becomes a bidding war and another team starts throwing multiple high picks in im out.  

1. Jags - Sunshine

2. Jets - Wilson

3. Phins - Sewell

4. Falcons - Fields

5. Bengals - Paye

6. Eagles - Chase 

7. Lions - Lance

8.  Panthers - choices parsons, a top corner, a top wr, 2nd tier oline or scrap heap QB.

I say we try and trade up if it's not too expensive but if not take BPA at position of need.  If Samuel leaves we gonna need a wr.  Can't afford to keep moore and robby both.  1st round corners scare me a bit but it's a need. I actually have faith the new regime will do well.

Getting to Fields by trading with Miami would be worth the #1 in 2022 and our 2021 second rounder if that would do it.  I know we need the picks, but if you think he is the deal, you go get him and keeping him out of Atlanta is another reason.  I expect aggression from Tepper/GM/Rhule at QB.

Thanks Rivera, for continuing your destruction of this franchise by sucking on the opposite sideline.

 

[SmokinwithWilly]

14 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

Getting to Fields by trading with Miami would be worth the #1 in 2022 and our 2021 second rounder if that would do it.  I know we need the picks, but if you think he is the deal, you go get him and keeping him out of Atlanta is another reason.  I expect aggression from Tepper/GM/Rhule at QB.

Thanks Rivera, for continuing your destruction of this franchise by sucking on the opposite sideline.

 

If they hadn't won the division, I think anyone could look at that game and say that Rivera was tanking. That was one of the worst performances by a QB I've ever seen and he should have been benched before halftime. However, having seen 8 years of Rivera coaching, it is well understood that it took that long to realize Haskins wasnt just having a bad pregame and it was indeed the second half. 

[FuFuLamePoo]

3 hours ago, 45catfan said:

I can't see the Lions and Falcons moving on From Stafford and Ryan respectfully.  Those team sucked this year but you can't lay fault purely on the QB position.  Both guys put up really respectable numbers.  The Dolphins and Bengals will not draft a QB.  Jags will take Trevor and the Jets are 75/25 to take a QB.  The Eagles are about 50/50.  A worse case scenario has us taking QB#4 at pick 8.  Best case scenario has us taking QB#2 at pick 8.  Play the average and we are looking at QB#3 with the eighth pick.

Lions are rebuilding, Stafford wants no part of that. I would expect him to get traded before the draft, apparently most that are in inside circles with the Lions say the franchise is already operating with the intention that Stafford won't be back next year. Falcons also are in a unique spot. Ryan is 36, he doesn't have more than a handful of years left. I'll be amazed if the Lions and Falcons don't take QBs.

[CRA]

4 minutes ago, FuFuLamePoo said:

Lions are rebuilding, Stafford wants no part of that. I would expect him to get traded before the draft, apparently most that are in inside circles with the Lions say the franchise is already operating with the intention that Stafford won't be back next year. Falcons also are in a unique spot. Ryan is 36, he doesn't have more than a handful of years left. I'll be amazed if the Lions and Falcons don't take QBs.

I think Stafford is gone.  Falcons are stuck w/ Matt Ryan as their starter in 2021.  Massive cap hit. Probably 2022 too.