Carolina Draft History

[trueblade]

13 minutes ago, ericr0319 said:

Right now if I could have any 3 QBs in the league it would be: Mahomes, Rodgers, and Wilson (in that order). None of them taken in the top 8.

Then maybe Josh Allen - taken 7th. 

The Chiefs were due to pick 27th that year. They had to trade up and it did cost them their next year's 1st rounder.

Buffalo had no GM at the time (Beane was hired not long after the draft). The Buffalo Bills traded the 10th overall pick to the Chiefs for their first round pick (27), a third round pick, and the Chiefs' first round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. No. 27 pick in 2017 NFL Draft was Tre'Davious White. You might have heard of him. The third-round 2017 pick was packaged in a trade that led to Buffalo taking both tackle Dion Dawkins and receiver Zay Jones. Jones didn't work out, but Dawkins did. Buffalo used thier own 1st rounder in 2018 (7) to pick some kid named Josh Allen, and used the Chiefs first-round 2018 pick to trade up and take linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. 

[trueblade]

7 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

A few recent examples: Mahomes 10th, Deshaun Watson 12th and Lamar Jackson 32nd.  On the flip side, 2015's draft had Winston and Mariota go #1 and #2 overall, both are now backups. 

2016 was Goff and Wentz. Both signed huge contract extensions that their teams both now regret.

[45catfan]

Ryan Tannehill went #8 in 2012.  He was a late bloomer.  Was that necessarily on Ryan or the Dolphins?  Granted he was average in Miami, but has been quality since taking over for the Titans.

[trueblade]

7 minutes ago, 45catfan said:

Ryan Tannehill went #8 in 2012.  He was a late bloomer.  Was that necessarily on Ryan or the Dolphins?  Granted he was average in Miami, but has been quality since taking over for the Titans.

His coach in Miami was Adam Gase.

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, trueblade said:

His coach in Miami was Adam Gase.

QB Kiss of Death.

Don't be stunned if the Jets decide to keep Darnold.

[45catfan]

1 minute ago, trueblade said:

His coach in Miami was Adam Gase.

The recently fired Adam Gase?  Yep, that makes sense then.

[Davidson Deac II]

If you look at the top teams in the NFC right now, Wilson and Brees both second round picks.  Rogers was late first round.  And of course Brady was 6th round.  Those are the top 4.  The next three are Smith, Goff, and Trubisky, all top five picks who are not as good as the top four.  In the AFC, the numbers are a little different.  But even in that conference, the two best at this point (Allen and Mahomes) were taken outside the top 5.  And Ben R was outside the top 10.  

 

Of course, our odds of getting a good qb do improve if picking in the top five, but not as much as some here believe. 

[kungfoodude]

8 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

If you look at the top teams in the NFC right now, Wilson and Brees both second round picks.  Rogers was late first round.  And of course Brady was 6th round.  Those are the top 4.  The next three are Smith, Goff, and Trubisky, all top five picks who are not as good as the top four.  In the AFC, the numbers are a little different.  But even in that conference, the two best at this point (Allen and Mahomes) were taken outside the top 5.  And Ben R was outside the top 10.  

 

Of course, our odds of getting a good qb do improve if picking in the top five, but not as much as some here believe. 

People get too hung up on the "where" and not the "who." 

Most of those top QB's that failed did so because they weren't going to be elite QB's in the league. Most of those top QB's that fell were successful for the same reasons they would have had they been the #1 overall pick. Did someone like Rodgers benefit from a chip on his shoulder because of his fall? Yes. But were Russell Wilson or Tom Brady always going to be great? Probably so. Did Jamarcus Russell fail because he was drafted #1 or did he fail because he was a lazy bum that didn't want to do the work? Ditto for Dwayne Haskins.

Then some of this is just the opportunity that you are given, right? Jake Delhomme was a nobody that we gave the stage to and he showed he was worthy of it. So did Kurt Warner. But take a guy like Johnny Manziel and no matter what the stage is, he proves he isn't the guy. Same with The Golden Calf of Bristol. 

It isn't the position that matters, it's the player. It always has been. Don't fret over the position, go find and identify the player.

[Davidson Deac II]

10 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

People get too hung up on the "where" and not the "who." 

Most of those top QB's that failed did so because they weren't going to be elite QB's in the league. Most of those top QB's that fell were successful for the same reasons they would have had they been the #1 overall pick. Did someone like Rodgers benefit from a chip on his shoulder because of his fall? Yes. But were Russell Wilson or Tom Brady always going to be great? Probably so. Did Jamarcus Russell fail because he was drafted #1 or did he fail because he was a lazy bum that didn't want to do the work? Ditto for Dwayne Haskins.

Then some of this is just the opportunity that you are given, right? Jake Delhomme was a nobody that we gave the stage to and he showed he was worthy of it. So did Kurt Warner. But take a guy like Johnny Manziel and no matter what the stage is, he proves he isn't the guy. Same with The Golden Calf of Bristol. 

It isn't the position that matters, it's the player. It always has been. Don't fret over the position, go find and identify the player.

I agree, but I also believe that there is a certain amount, perhaps a large amount of luck, involved.  You never truly know if a player is the guy until he starts playing.   And its just as true for Trevor Lawrence as it is for some college guy that most of us have never heard of who might become the next Brady or Montana.  

[kungfoodude]

2 minutes ago, Davidson Deac II said:

I agree, but I also believe that there is a certain amount, perhaps a large amount of luck, involved.  You never truly know if a player is the guy until he starts playing.   And its just as true for Trevor Lawrence as it is for some college guy that most of us have never heard of who might become the next Brady or Montana.  

I agree with that, as well. That is where you just have to trust in your evaluation process. Talk to the right people, do your homework and trust in your process. There are always going to be some misses, no matter how good you are. 

[jfra78]

7 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

People get too hung up on the "where" and not the "who." 

Most of those top QB's that failed did so because they weren't going to be elite QB's in the league. Most of those top QB's that fell were successful for the same reasons they would have had they been the #1 overall pick. Did someone like Rodgers benefit from a chip on his shoulder because of his fall? Yes. But were Russell Wilson or Tom Brady always going to be great? Probably so. Did Jamarcus Russell fail because he was drafted #1 or did he fail because he was a lazy bum that didn't want to do the work? Ditto for Dwayne Haskins.

Then some of this is just the opportunity that you are given, right? Jake Delhomme was a nobody that we gave the stage to and he showed he was worthy of it. So did Kurt Warner. But take a guy like Johnny Manziel and no matter what the stage is, he proves he isn't the guy. Same with The Golden Calf of Bristol. 

It isn't the position that matters, it's the player. It always has been. Don't fret over the position, go find and identify the player.

There are many factors that go into whether a top picked QB will have success in the NFL.  One is obviously talent, most QBs picked in the top of the draft have the talent to be franchise QBs.  Next there is maturaty, this can affect any player at any position but like everything else it is heightened at the QB position.  Then there is organizational disfunction, there are teams who are constantly picking high in the draft and can't seem to get it together.  Then you have team leadership,  this can overcome maturity issues and help put a franchise QB on the right track from the beginning.  

[jfra78]

5 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

I agree with that, as well. That is where you just have to trust in your evaluation process. Talk to the right people, do your homework and trust in your process. There are always going to be some misses, no matter how good you are. 

Will people trust the Panthers evaluation if there is a "top 4 QB" when we pick and we choose not to pick him?

[saX man]

1 hour ago, WarHeel said:

Wouldn’t say undoubtedly. Carson Wentz was drafted in the top 3 and he’s about to get a first class ticket out of Philly.

 

2 hours ago, SOJA said:

I think more interesting list would be QBs taken at or just after the 8th pick. 

I don't think anyone is arguing you can't get a talented player at 8 overall. the question is will a franchise QB last that long when, undoubtedly, one would have been there at 3

I sorta made one one but it was rambling and didn’t get much response ha. Josh Allen, Mahomes, Watson, all 7-12

[kungfoodude]

1 minute ago, jfra78 said:

There are many factors that go into whether a top picked QB will have success in the NFL.  One is obviously talent, most QBs picked in the top of the draft have the talent to be franchise QBs.  Next there is maturaty, this can affect any player at any position but like everything else it is heightened at the QB position.  Then there is organizational disfunction, there are teams who are constantly picking high in the draft and can't seem to get it together.  Then you have team leadership,  this can overcome maturity issues and help put a franchise QB on the right track from the beginning.  

I agree. I also think that a portion of the truly elite QB's would have been elite just about anywhere. The biggest thing they ever need is just the starting job. 

Some of them, like the Eli Manning's of the world, they need some help along the way. They can't be great on their own. And I say that about a guy with two Super Bowl rings.

So, you are absolutely correct. There are a lot of variables that go into ultimate NFL success and those truly elite winners don't grow on trees. There might not even be one in this entire QB draft, as strong as it seems on paper.