Analytics to pick QB?

[Varking]

12 minutes ago, beo said:

How much of that is the coaching staff not trusting Lance's arm and how much of it is NDSU's scheme? Everyone last year, myself included, were very weary of Herbert due to the volume of screen passes that the Oregon offense incorporated and questioned his ability to hit NFL passes but that was clearly an incorrect viewpoint. 

In 2018, Easton Stick attempted less passes than Lance did despite being a senior. While Stick was obviously nowhere near the prospect Lance is, Stick by this point was an experienced senior compared to Lance's 2019 season in which he was an unheralded freshman. Lance was also dealing with a rookie head coach although new HC Matt Entz seems to be cut from the same cloth as former HC Chris Klieman was, being the team's former Defensive coordinator and running a similar offense.

For comparison sake, let's see how many passes NDSU attmepted going back to Carson Wentz's starting years along with Chris Klieman's tenure as Head Coach which began in 2014.

2014: 364

2015: 358

2016: 294

2017: 295

2018: 290

2019: 304

So in 2019, the Bison actually attempted more passes than they had in the past 3 seasons to that point. It's clear they're just not an air it all out team. I also think it's safe to say that a lot of Lance's carries and rushing attempts cut into his passing attempts and had he not been so lethal on the ground he probably would've had around the same amount of passing attempts as Carson Wentz did. In 2014, Carson Wentz had 138 rushing attempts compared to Lance's 169 in 2019. While that's a healthy amount of rushing attempts for Wentz, he did much less with them than Lance did. Had Lance's additional rushing attempts (he had around 31 more than Wentz had)  been passing attempts he would've finished the season with 335 attempts. While still less than Wentz's attempts I don't really blame them for not wanting to put everything on their freshman QB's arm. If you're NDSU, why force your inexperienced QB to throw the football when he's lethal on the ground and consistently churns out good yardage running the ball? Especially when that's what your offense is built around anyways? 

If you are afraid of “forcing” your QB to throw then you are designing an offense to hide his throwing. And that’s what they did. If they felt they could trust his arm they would have thrown more. It’s never a great idea for your QB to run 30 times in a game. You are just adding more miles to the body of a guy early in his career. I’d rather have my QB throw 25-30 times and run 5-10 and take less hits. He plays on a team that out talents everyone else they play year round every year for like the last 10 years. 
 

Their coach threw less over time because he hasn’t had a thrower in the tier of Wentz since he left. 
 

 

[beo]

6 minutes ago, Varking said:

If you are afraid of “forcing” your QB to throw then you are designing an offense to hide his throwing. And that’s what they did. If they felt they could trust his arm they would have thrown more. It’s never a great idea for your QB to run 30 times in a game. You are just adding more miles to the body of a guy early in his career. I’d rather have my QB throw 25-30 times and run 5-10 and take less hits. He plays on a team that out talents everyone else they play year round every year for like the last 10 years. 
 

Their coach threw less over time because he hasn’t had a thrower in the tier of Wentz since he left. 
 

 

Why didn't Oregon throw more deeper passes with Herbert then? Why didn't they throw more with Wentz? 358 attempts isn't a particularly high number.

[Varking]

Just now, beo said:

Why didn't Oregon throw more with Herbert then? Why didn't they throw more with Wentz? 358 attempts isn't a particularly high number.

Herbert threw over 400 passes twice in college....

[beo]

1 minute ago, Varking said:

Herbert threw over 400 passes twice in college....

I meant more deeper passes. With Oregon he lead the NCAA in screen passes attempted if i'm not mistaken.\

edit: this is the stat i was referring to 

 

[Varking]

2 minutes ago, beo said:

I meant more deeper passes. With Oregon he lead the NCAA in screen passes attempted if i'm not mistaken.

He still completed 200+ passes that weren’t screens. Lance didn’t have 200 completions including screens, period. 

[beo]

Just now, Varking said:

He still completed 200+ passes that weren’t screens. Lance didn’t have 200 completions including screens, period. 

That's not my point. The point i'm trying to make is that I don't think you can just pin the lack of passing attempts onto Lance when that program just hasn't attempted that many passes for the better part of a decade now. It is a run first offense. It's the same lesson we learned with Herbert; college teams often want to run the offense they are familiar with running.

[Varking]

Just now, beo said:

That's not my point. The point i'm trying to make is that I don't think you can just pin the lack of passing attempts onto Lance when that program just hasn't attempted that many passes for the better part of a decade now. It is a run first offense. It's the same lesson we learned with Herbert; college teams often want to run the offense they are familiar with running.

He threw 400+ passes two years in a row...Dan Mullen likes to use mobile QBs but we aired it out with immobile Trask this year, why? Because we had a quarterback who could be dominant through the air. When Emory Jones comes in the game we run option plays because he is a running QB. Bama has been a run dominant team for the longest but the past 3-4 years they’ve been throwing more because they have guys who can throw lately. Oklahoma runs a completely different offense with Spencer Rattler than they did with Mayfield or Hurts or Murray... because he’s better suited at drop back passing than making crazy plays with his legs.

[Agent Blue]

6 hours ago, MHS831 said:

Putting the pieces together because that I what we do:

• Brady earned his stripes with Burrow. 
• Ohio State CHOSE Haskins over Burrow because he fit their system better.  Brady won a championship with OSU's reject.  Scratch Fields off the list--if you believe in stereotypes (OSU QBs).
• If you recall, LSU is one of the last, "power I" schools, and Brady won the national title there--after a stint in New Orleans, another NFL team that featured a FB that did not have an overly-mobile QB (Brees).  Although they are having fun with Hill, he does not really fit that system--
• Bridgewater was Brady's choice and he is not overly mobile. So here you have a situation where Brady took the "left over" QB for his system.
• This system requires certain skill sets:  FB, TE, and OL have to possess the skill sets to increase the likelihood for the QB's success. 
• The Panthers fired Marty Hurney, who does not communicate with the scouting department effectively in the identification of these skill sets.  Frankly, Marty probably does not get the "analytics" of player evaluation in relation to the system requirements.
• Rhule and Brady and Snow know what kinds of players they need, so they run the draft while sending Marty out to Seattle (at the beginning of the pandemic restrictions) to scout HERBERT--no other qbs. If Herbert had been there, Brown would not have been the choice.  He would have been here a year too early, but still.
• The Panthers could have traded up for the QB Herbert, but they wanted to see what they had in Bridgewater and they wanted to put the pieces in place before bringing in a QB. They had so many needs. They decided to build the defense in 2020 and see what Bridgewater could do.
• So now they are ready to build the offense, and the QB is the main piece. It makes sense that the panthers will go after a Herbert/Burrow/Bridgewater style QB and build the protection around him. LSU had a good D, remember?
• Who are the QBs who fit the Brady mold?  Trevor (already gone), Trask, and Mac Jones. 
• If the Panthers knew they had to have a Fields or a Wilson, maybe they would have played more conservatively Sunday. However, Trask and / or Mac Jones is going to be there when the Panthers pick.

I think this is 70% speculative BS, but there could be something there.  I think we could go with Trask or Jones because either is a better fit in Brady system.

Herbert/Burrow/Bridgewater

They are all different QBs. 

You guys make too much out of system. 

All systems require most of the same stuff. 

[Varking]

1 minute ago, Agent Blue said:

Herbert/Burrow/Bridgewater

They are all different QBs. 

You guys make too much out of system. 

All systems require most of the same stuff. 

If you have a Herbert you can run any passing system. 

[Agent Blue]

1 minute ago, Varking said:

If you have a Herbert you can run any passing system. 

Not if he isn't accurate, can't diagnose defenses, make reads etc

 

[beo]

30 minutes ago, Varking said:

He threw 400+ passes two years in a row...Dan Mullen likes to use mobile QBs but we aired it out with immobile Trask this year, why? Because we had a quarterback who could be dominant through the air. When Emory Jones comes in the game we run option plays because he is a running QB. Bama has been a run dominant team for the longest but the past 3-4 years they’ve been throwing more because they have guys who can throw lately. Oklahoma runs a completely different offense with Spencer Rattler than they did with Mayfield or Hurts or Murray... because he’s better suited at drop back passing than making crazy plays with his legs.

I'm not pretending to be a genius of college football, in fact I do not even watch college football outside of games of prospects that intrigue me. However, regarding Herbert, he certainly did throw 400 passes but 99 of them were screens. The point I am making is that, at least to me as an outsider who does not watch that much college ball, this would imply to me that in some scenarios teams will prefer to stay in their comfort zone even if their QB can hit those more difficult passes and run systems that are more familar to them especially when they are starting an unproven freshman who to that point had never thrown a college pass before.  Herbert has proven that he can hit far more difficult passes than he was asked to at Oregon so far in the NFL. I think that Lance could be a similar case because if you watch his film he can hit very difficult passes in his own right.

All I am saying is that correlation doesn't equal causation. 

[BrianS]

35 minutes ago, beo said:

I'm not pretending to be a genius of college football, in fact I do not even watch college football outside of games of prospects that intrigue me. However, regarding Herbert, he certainly did throw 400 passes but 99 of them were screens. The point I am making is that, at least to me as an outsider who does not watch that much college ball, this would imply to me that in some scenarios teams will prefer to stay in their comfort zone even if their QB can hit those more difficult passes and run systems that are more familar to them especially when they are starting an unproven freshman who to that point had never thrown a college pass before.  Herbert has proven that he can hit far more difficult passes than he was asked to at Oregon so far in the NFL. I think that Lance could be a similar case because if you watch his film he can hit very difficult passes in his own right.

All I am saying is that correlation doesn't equal causation. 

If you're trying to hang your hat on Trey Lance vs Herbert (or anyone with half an arm) on deep ball completions you're going to come up short.  I've watched a lot of Trey Lance, and his deep ball accuracy is sketchy.  Yes, he'll complete some deep balls.  He'll also be late, long, short, out of bounds, wrong shoulder, etc just as often.  Honestly, some of his deep completions are more concerning than his misses when he leaves the ball short and receivers have to slow down / stop to catch the ball where an accurate throw puts them in the end zone.

You're also trying to say screens aren't passes in terms of total passes thrown.  Well, guess what, Trey Lance throws screens too.  So if 25% of passes are screens, now you're knocking another 4 per game off Lance.  Instead of 18 passes per game, it's only 14.  FOURTEEN!

You need to watch games, not just some cut up highlight package on Lance.  Watch every throw.  Yes, he can make some throws that look good in a package.

Finally, consider that we had the finished product in the building prior to this year and the staff decided we wanted something different and cut him loose.  We aren't looking for a physical specimen.  We're looking for a passer, that's what fits the Brady / Rhule mold.  Brees, Bridgewater,  Burrow, Brewer . . . these are throwers.

In fact, there's a dark horse.  Charlie Brewer.  He's said he will transfer to Utah, but if he decides to declare instead, I could see us taking a late rounder on him.

[beo]

3 hours ago, BrianS said:

If you're trying to hang your hat on Trey Lance vs Herbert (or anyone with half an arm) on deep ball completions you're going to come up short.  I've watched a lot of Trey Lance, and his deep ball accuracy is sketchy.  Yes, he'll complete some deep balls.  He'll also be late, long, short, out of bounds, wrong shoulder, etc just as often.  Honestly, some of his deep completions are more concerning than his misses when he leaves the ball short and receivers have to slow down / stop to catch the ball where an accurate throw puts them in the end zone.

You're also trying to say screens aren't passes in terms of total passes thrown.  Well, guess what, Trey Lance throws screens too.  So if 25% of passes are screens, now you're knocking another 4 per game off Lance.  Instead of 18 passes per game, it's only 14.  FOURTEEN!

You need to watch games, not just some cut up highlight package on Lance.  Watch every throw.  Yes, he can make some throws that look good in a package.

Finally, consider that we had the finished product in the building prior to this year and the staff decided we wanted something different and cut him loose.  We aren't looking for a physical specimen.  We're looking for a passer, that's what fits the Brady / Rhule mold.  Brees, Bridgewater,  Burrow, Brewer . . . these are throwers.

In fact, there's a dark horse.  Charlie Brewer.  He's said he will transfer to Utah, but if he decides to declare instead, I could see us taking a late rounder on him.

I will be honest and say that I haven't just watched highlight packages on Lance; but I have only seen three games. Those games I thought he looked pretty impressive but I still need to finish watching his 2019 season. This is why I am not talking in absolutes, I was simply presenting an idea that I came up with in my mind and asking someone who actually watches college football for their opinion on it. Just making that much clear. I doubt that Lance throws 25% screens as Herbert's rate was fairly unusual, but either way the point is taken that you could probably take a couple of his pass attempts off.

As for Brewer, I'd never actually heard of him until now. I will check him out. Thanks for the insight.