Analytics to pick QB?

[Untouchable]

9 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

He is a late riser to fans, but a lot of teams are already aware of him. 

I'm following the outside of the top 4 parameters in the OP.  Of all the ones in that "next wave" he's the only one who makes sense to me as someone who can steal on the margins.

[jerrya]

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

 

I think this is 70% speculative BS, but there could be something there.  I think we could go with Trask or Jones because either is a better fit in Brady system.

What is Brady's system?

[Brooklyn 3.0]

The only analytic you need to know: If your name is NOT Trevor Lawrence ... it doesn't matter. Draft him or don't. He may or not be good. Yawn.

[stbugs]

34 minutes ago, Varking said:

Analytics would tell us don’t take a QB outside of the top 3 and roll the dice trying to get one next year or the year after. 

Analytics (PFF ratings) got Marty to reach on Little and Grier. I don’t trust that for QBs against completely different levels of opponents. I understand the use in pro scouting where you have apples to apples but so much harder in college and again analytics cost us the entire draft after Burns.

[Waldo]

20 minutes ago, MHS831 said:

It is a good year to be going after a QB....I like Lance.  I like Wilson.  I am scared to death of Fields.  I like the Trask and Jones ball placement---they are crazy good.  I even see some raw material in Newman--a team like Atlanta might be better served developing Newman for a year or two....

I don't watch squat NCAA ball so I can't get caught up in any of the hype. All I have seen was some highlight videos and a couple of break down videos, mostly what people here post in conversation. Wilson, Lance and Fields seems like possibilities and I think each has areas I am not 100% on but have lots of potential to be our guy. It's so early in the process. It's a QB search, I'm excited but also aware of the possibilities so that's terrifying. 

I hope the new crew shows up and proves they have what us fans have been begging for. A QB search is a hell of a start. 

[45catfan]

2 hours ago, bull123 said:

I like Jones 

Jones is a game manager. Not saying that's a bad thing, but on natural athletic ability alone, he's the last of the big 6 probably going in round one.

[OldhamA]

It's going to be interesting to see what Trask can do without his entire receiving corps in the bowl game.

[Varking]

Just now, OldhamA said:

It's going to be interesting to see what Trask can do without his entire receiving corps in the bowl game.

300 passing yards and 3 TDs. Business as usual. 

[SizzleBuzz]

3 hours ago, Tbe said:

Man, Lance is such a huge gamble. 

Is he?  What would the dollar costs be to gamble on him!

[Shocker]

4 hours ago, therealmjl said:

Trask

Honestly I would love Trask over Lance because I think Lance will be a colossal bust.

[Varking]

4 minutes ago, Shocker said:

Honestly I would love Trask over Lance because I think Lance will be a colossal bust.

It’s hard to roll the dice on a kid who average just 16 pass attempts a game. 

[Shocker]

4 minutes ago, Varking said:

It’s hard to roll the dice on a kid who average just 16 pass attempts a game. 

Trask is my 4th QB and he isn't far behind Wilson at all.  I don't expect the second coming of Aaron Rodgers here but he is ascending and I like how he has worked his way into it.  I wouldn't mind Trask in a move up from round 2.  Will he last that long? His lack of mobility is worrisome but not a deal breaker for me.  Don't want Lance or Jones so hope they go earlier.

[chknwing]

Analytics... Would be to trade down acquiring more picks increasing the chances of getting quality players.  The draft is a crap shoot regardless of where a player is drafted.  

[beo]

1 hour ago, Varking said:

It’s hard to roll the dice on a kid who average just 16 pass attempts a game. 

How much of that is the coaching staff not trusting Lance's arm and how much of it is NDSU's scheme? Everyone last year, myself included, were very weary of Herbert due to the volume of screen passes that the Oregon offense incorporated and questioned his ability to hit NFL passes but that was clearly an incorrect viewpoint. 

In 2018, Easton Stick attempted less passes than Lance did despite being a senior. While Stick was obviously nowhere near the prospect Lance is, Stick by this point was an experienced senior compared to Lance's 2019 season in which he was an unheralded freshman. Lance was also dealing with a rookie head coach although new HC Matt Entz seems to be cut from the same cloth as former HC Chris Klieman was, being the team's former Defensive coordinator and running a similar offense.

For comparison sake, let's see how many passes NDSU attmepted going back to Carson Wentz's starting years along with Chris Klieman's tenure as Head Coach which began in 2014.

2014: 364

2015: 358

2016: 294

2017: 295

2018: 290

2019: 304

So in 2019, the Bison actually attempted more passes than they had in the past 3 seasons to that point. It's clear they're just not an air it all out team. I also think it's safe to say that a lot of Lance's carries and rushing attempts cut into his passing attempts and had he not been so lethal on the ground he probably would've had around the same amount of passing attempts as Carson Wentz did. In 2014, Carson Wentz had 138 rushing attempts compared to Lance's 169 in 2019. While that's a healthy amount of rushing attempts for Wentz, he did much less with them than Lance did. Had Lance's additional rushing attempts (he had around 31 more than Wentz had)  been passing attempts he would've finished the season with 335 attempts. While still less than Wentz's attempts I don't really blame them for not wanting to put everything on their freshman QB's arm. If you're NDSU, why force your inexperienced QB to throw the football when he's lethal on the ground and consistently churns out good yardage running the ball? Especially when that's what your offense is built around anyways?