Dane Bruglers updated top 10 mock draft

[Martin]

Here is the latest update from Dane Brugler at the Athletic with some added commentary and some actual thought to it: 
 

Mock Draft 2.0 won’t come out for another few weeks (once we have the official pool of players in the 2021 draft class). But the shake up to the top-10 draft order has been a substantial development, creating several intriguing draft dominoes.

The Jaguars have drafted in the top-10 picks 18 different times, but never No. 1 overall. That will change in April as the organization clinched the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft when the Jets defeated the Browns on Sunday. That victory also locked up the No. 2 pick for the Jets. Those are the only two picks set in stone right now, but at this time next week, we will know picks 3-18 as the regular season concludes.

Other key changes since Mock Draft 1.0 in November: the Chargers and Cowboys have gone from the top-5 to out of the top-10. And the Texans’ four-game losing streak has given the Dolphins, who own Houston’s pick from the Laremy Tunsil trade, a realistic chance at the third overall pick.

With all of the shake-up, let’s map out how the top-10 picks could conceivably play out with what we know right now:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

For the first time in franchise history, the Jaguars will draft No. 1 overall – and they picked the right year to do it. Until the pick is official, you never say never, but Lawrence to Jacksonville is about as certain as it gets when it comes to the NFL Draft.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Over the last two weeks, the Jets went from the easiest team to predict at No. 1 to a puzzling wild card at No. 2. With Lawrence almost certainly headed to Jacksonville, the question becomes: where would Sam Darnold rank for general manager Joe Douglas on this year’s quarterback draft board? Can the organization afford to pass on a quarterback at No. 2 to see how Darnold would fare with a new head coach and improved talent around him? It all comes down to how Douglas feels about Darnold and these quarterback prospects.

There is no consensus No. 2 quarterback in this class, but Wilson, who was also No. 2 overall in Mock Draft 1.0, emerged as the favorite for many around the league this season. He is an instinctive athlete with the ball velocity, accuracy and escapability to create inside or outside of structure. No, the competition on his 2020 film has not been impressive, but the quality of his play has been outstanding and the traits are obvious.

If the Jets feel comfortable moving forward with Darnold as the quarterback, this pick is an interesting trade spot. If the Jets stay put and bypass a quarterback, Oregon’s Penei Sewell makes the most sense.

3. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

The Dolphins have a chance to make a deep run in the playoffs while also drafting in the top-3 overall picks next April. In this scenario, Miami would have their choice of the best non-quarterback on their draft board.

Chase had a record-breaking 2019 season at LSU, setting numerous SEC records and finishing as the most productive receiver on an offense that also included NFL offensive rookie of the year candidate Justin Jefferson. With his gear-changing acceleration and elite finishing skills, Chase would give the Dolphins’ offense an immediate weapon that should accelerate the development of Tua Tagovailoa.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

The Falcons did extensive work on last year’s offensive tackle draft class and even with a new general manager and head coach, I expect Atlanta to do the same in this upcoming class. Whether they move Jake Matthews inside to guard or upgrade the right tackle spot, the offensive line needs help this offseason. A quarterback shouldn’t be ruled out here either, but the Matt Ryan contract might complicate that route.

Although I think the “generational prospect” label is hyperbolic, Sewell is a very talented player with his best football ahead of him. He is extremely efficient with his movement patterns due to his flexibility and balance, while also showing the instincts (at only 20-years old) to be an immediate NFL starter.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

A tight end drafted this high is rare, but Pitts is a rare prospect. And watching Darren Waller dominate for the Raiders should provide the Bengals with the blueprint for what a talent like that can do for the offense. Pitts has the athletic traits to create his own separation, but also the ball skills and catch radius to make plays over defensive backs – even when he is covered, he is open. Although this pick isn’t an offensive lineman, something tells me Joe Burrow would be pretty happy with this addition.

If the Bengals are determined to address the offensive line and Sewell is off the board, Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater is the next-best blocking prospect in this draft class and it wouldn’t be a reach to draft him in the top-10 picks.

6. Philadelphia Eagles – DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

The future of the Eagles’ quarterback depth chart is unsettled. But regardless of who is leading the offense, more weapons should be a priority for general manager Howie Roseman and the front office. Aside from his unimpressive body type at 175 pounds, what is there not to love about Smith? He is dynamic and instinctive as a route runner. His ball skills are elite. And his natural polish at the position will make him an immediate playmaker in the NFL.

7. Detroit Lions – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

I don’t expect this projection to be popular among the Lions’ fanbase because Matthew Stafford isn’t what is wrong with the organization. But Detroit is a franchise in need of a makeover and an intriguing option this offseason would be to trade Stafford for draft picks, sign a veteran stopgap quarterback and draft a talented quarterback like Fields. Although I have my questions about his passing vision and ability to efficiently work his reads, Fields has the size, mobility and upside as a passer to warrant this selection.

8. New York Giants – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

With a top-10 pick, the Giants could go with an offensive playmaker like Jaylen Waddle or the top pass rusher on their draft board, but adding another high-ceiling cornerback to the defense is an appealing option. A high school quarterback, Farley has the size and speed that helps him match up on the outside and he has shown surprisingly natural instincts for a player with his lack of experience at the position.

9. Carolina Panthers – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Lance is an unprecedented evaluation because of his meager experience with all 17 of his collegiate starts coming vs. FCS opponents. But his talent is too enticing for him to fall too far and his teammates call him the hardest worker in the program, something that will certainly appeal to Matt Rhule. With Teddy Bridgewater under contract for at least one more season, the Panthers are in a situation to draft a young quarterback like Lance, who can sit and develop at his own pace.

10. Denver Broncos – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

The Broncos need playmakers on defense who can fill the stat sheet and be disruptive. A cornerback like Alabama’s Patrick Surtain is an option or the top pass rusher on Denver’s draft board like Michigan’s Kwity Paye or Miami’s Gregory Rousseau. But an impact linebacker is also a need and Parsons is only scratching the surface of the player he can be. While he is still new to the position, his speed, power and reaction to movement are why he is considered a potential cornerstone defender.

[Sean Payton's Vicodin]

Hmm so we could have chosen between Sewell or Fields. So glad we have that winning culture now instead

[Call Me James]

Yea we've pretty much moved from having a lot of choices to being at the mercy of the picks before us after that last win. 

Hopefully we get a player who makes an immediate impact. 

[TheCasillas]

1 minute ago, Sean Payton's Vicodin said:

Hmm so we could have chosen between Sewell or Fields. So glad we have that winning culture now instead

Fields would have locked in a losing culture.

[LinvilleGorge]

Wilson going #2 would ease the sting of yesterday's outcome since getting to #2 was an impossibility.

[Carolina Cajun]

FWIW, After Lawrence the QB I want is Trey Lance.  his ceiling is MASSIVE and I think he absolutely can/will grow into essentially what Josh Allen is in buffalo.

[t96]

I think Lance has the best chance of the non-Lawrence QBs to wind up being the best QB in this class. Also a chance he busts but his upside is truly insane. I'd take him at 9 or wherever we pick in a heartbeat and sit him behind Teddy for a year. We'd be in great shape.

[OneBadCat]

We could probably trade up ahead of Detroit and not get railroaded too hard 

[Waldo]

I like Lance anywho. Just don't be a damn LBer or OG in the top 10. Maybe a trade back and fill the massive holes in the roster.

[Anybodyhome]

I will laugh hysterically if/when Trevor Lawrence decides he wants to return for his senior year at Clemson.

While a lot of you may scoff at the notion, perhaps you should take a look at the number of players who have returned to Clemson for their senior year when they were supposedly solid draft picks. For some reason, a pretty fair number of players don't mind coming back to play another year for Dabo.

[RockyTopVol]

Trey Lance at 9 would be a no-brainer for us, IMHO. 

Don't be surprised if Mac Jones starts getting mocked in the top ten, too. 

[45catfan]

Lance has been my first round target since last offseason.  So this would be just fine with me.  Everything sets up perfectly for us. Lance sits behind Bridgewater for a year, as Teddy is too expensive to dump and Trey doesn't get David Carr-ed in his rookie season while we (yet again) revamp the OL.  Then come back in round 2 and get a LT.

[Captroop]

I'm actually pretty okay with picking at 9 rather than top 5, especially if we're looking to go QB. We basically get to pick whoever slips out of the top 5. Lance at 9 is a no-brainer. Lance at 4? Mehhhhh. I don't know. I haven't heard this much talk of "his upside is insane" or "we don't even know how high his ceiling is" since RG3, and that doesn't exactly fill me with confidence when you're rolling the dice with a top 5 pick.

[top dawg]

Why do you motherfugers think I'm not crying? Just kidding, I wouldn't be crying anyway. But on the real, yesterday was a good day for many of us!