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Analysis of Today's Games for Tankers

MHS831

By MHS831,
in Carolina Panthers

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

Posted
Posted

Bold teams need wins today

Chargers (5-9, SOS .487) over Denver (5-9, SOS .559).  The team with the more favorable SOS at 5 wins needs to move to 6 wins.  If Denver loses and the Panthers win, the Panthers SOS (.530) is better at this time.  The Chargers finish at KC (which could be a rest up game) and Denver finishes vs. the Raiders.  Ideally, a Chargers win today seems to increase the chances that both teams finish with 6 wins.

Cincinnati (4-10-1) winning over Houston (4-10) is ideal, but a Houston victory is not a total loss for the Panthers because it takes them to five wins.  HOWEVER, If the Panthers defeat the WFT today, it is actually better if Houston wins also.  Houston and Carolina would each have 5 wins, and the SOS favors Carolina at this time (Houston: .546, Carolina .530).  So a Houston Loss (one that would make us all celebrate) that coincides with a Carolina win actually hurts the draft position, leaving both Cincy and Houston with 4 wins and Carolina with 5.

Atlanta (4-11) over Kansas City.  Ok, that is not likely to happen, but hold the phone.  Kansas City won a head-to-head vs. Buffalo, so the only team that is keeping them from clinching the first round bye is Pittsburgh—on a 3-game skid. If Indy (both teams kickoff at 1pm eastern) gets a big lead on Pittsburgh,  do the Chiefs watch the scoreboard and relax a bit?  Secondly, if KC defeats the Falcants, (in case you are wondering) what incentive does Tampa Bay have for not resting Brady week 17?  At the #5 seed (Behind Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, and Washington/NFC East Champ), they are sitting pretty.  That gives them Washington/NFC (#4 seed) in the wild card round.  If they lose, they could draw Seattle or the Rams.  No matter how you look at it, Atlanta is probably going 4-12 and will have a SOS around .550 and the only way Carolina picks ahead of Atlanta is to lose out.

Dallas (5-9) over Philadelphia (4-9-1).  This is a bit complicated, but it only matters to Carolina if they Panthers win today.  If Dallas loses this game and the Panthers defeat Washington, they would be tied, but Dallas has the more favorable SOS (.474 to .530).  If Philly loses this game, they go to 4-10-1 and Dallas has 6 wins—Philly could then beat Washington week 17 and the Panthers would be 5-11, Philly 5-10-1, and Dallas would have 5.5 - 6 wins (Philly would be at 5-10-1).  If the Giants beat the Cowboys week 17 and the Eagles beat Washington, then it is possible that all NFC East teams would finish higher than Carolina—even if Carolina wins a game vs. WFT.   

The Best scenario for the NFC East IF Carolina WINS vs. WFT:

Week 16

  • Carolina 5-10 defeated WFT 6-9
  • Dallas 6-9 defeats Philly 4-10-1
  • Baltimore defeats the NYG 5-10

Week 17

  • NYG (6-10) defeats Dallas (6-10)
  • Philly (5-10-1) defeats WFT (6-10)
  • New Orleans defeats Carolina (5-11)

In this scenario, ALL NFC East teams finish ahead of Carolina in draft order.

If The Chargers defeat the Broncos today, then it is possible that a Panther win could result in a final draft order of:  Atlanta to #4, Detroit to #5, and Carolina to #6---  IF Houston beats Cincinnati. In addition, if Detroit beats Minnesota week 17, it could move Carolina to #5---with a win vs. Washington.  Lotta ifs....

It is more probably to think a Panther Loss leaves the Panthers at #4, while a win might mean picking between #7 and 8 or so. 

 

 

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MHS831 Grand Master

MHS831

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27 minutes ago, t96 said:

Can someone look into the scenarios for SoS if both us and Falcons lose out? Can they jump us in the draft even if we lose out?

There are only 2 teams that are not common, except the fact that they played us and we played them-which is a mute point at this time because if Atlanta wins and it hurts our SOS, etc.  I put this on a different thread, but it is unlikely that Atlanta moves ahead of us if we both lose out.

 

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stbugs Grand Master

stbugs

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Just now, pantherj said:

Yeah with SoS you have to calculate the opponents record and the opponents' opponents record.

It’s actually easy this time. We played Washington and Arizona and Atlanta played Seattle and Dallas. After week 13, the combined records were identical which is why tankathon had us tied. Last week Seattle/Dallas went 2-0 and Arizona/Washington went 1-1. Arizona lost last night so if we tie with Atlanta, Seattle and Dallas have to lose 2 more times than Arizona and Washington lose. If we lose to Washington and the Giants lose, Washington will very likely rest guys next week so that would help. Since Seattle would be tied with NO if they beat the Rams, they’d still have a chance at the 2 seed and would try to beat SF. I guess if GB loses Seattle might still be in it for the 1 seed, not sure 

It’s definitely still possible that Atlanta’s SOS gets lower than ours, especially if Seattle and Dallas lose today. Actually if we lose and Seattle and Dallas lose, we’d be tied in SOS again.

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DaveThePanther2008 Grand Master

DaveThePanther2008

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Just wanted to point out the Jets are 13-3 over Cleveland. Cleveland is without all their WRs.  Mayfield is experiencing what Cam had to put up with all season.  No receivers who can get separation.  He's under pressure almost every time he drops back.  NYJ are pressuring him and focusing on the run.  NYJ will win this game. 

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