Salary Cap 101: Average Salary != Cap Hit

[WarHeel]

I’ve had people on here tell me that TB’s contract literally reads “stop gap” and then in the same breathe talk about how overpaid he is and how this has fiscally hurt the team. 

[WarHeel]

Oh and btw, the only folks bitching about a CMC contract are the ones who thought we shouldn’t draft him because he’s white. Anyone with a brain knows he is worth every penny because he was never “just a RB.”

[KSpan]

20 minutes ago, Icege said:

Who would you have signed and what would have been the details of the contract?

Either Dalton or Jameis for a helluva ton cheaper than what they paid Teddy. Are they better than Teddy on a typical Sunday? Marginally. That said I believe Jameis still has a lot of upside and could be an upper-half starter though the sun has nearly set on the possibility of him tapping it. Net results would be, at worst, what we're seeing now and the overall plan would remain the same. IMO Brady and/or Rhule played it way too safe by hitching to Teddy.

14 minutes ago, WarHeel said:

I’ve had people on here tell me that TB’s contract literally reads “stop gap” and then in the same breathe talk about how overpaid he is and how this has fiscally hurt the team. 

These two things are not mutually exclusive. They structured it as an expensive 2-year tryout and still overpaid for what he brings to the table even if the Bears were actually offering the same contract. That dollar amount was shocking to see, staggered cap hit or not. Again, I think Brady and/or Rhule played it too safe.

I've deviated a bit from the OP so I'll stay aware of that. The hit is lower than just average annual cost, as broken down in the first post, and even then it's still too much money for the unsurprising on-field results that we're seeing.

[Icege]

32 minutes ago, KSpan said:

Either Dalton or Jameis for a helluva ton cheaper than what they paid Teddy. Are they better than Teddy on a typical Sunday? Marginally. That said I believe Jameis still has a lot of upside and could be an upper-half starter though the sun has nearly set on the possibility of him tapping it. Net results would be, at worst, what we're seeing now and the overall plan would remain the same. IMO Brady and/or Rhule played it way too safe by hitching to Teddy.

These two things are not mutually exclusive. They structured it as an expensive 2-year tryout and still overpaid for what he brings to the table even if the Bears were actually offering the same contract. That dollar amount was shocking to see, staggered cap hit or not. Again, I think Brady and/or Rhule played it too safe.

I've deviated a bit from the OP so I'll stay aware of that. The hit is lower than just average annual cost, as broken down in the first post, and even then it's still too much money for the unsurprising on-field results that we're seeing.

Why would you be willing to give Jameis $21M (final year of his salary in TB) under the idea that he has upside when he has 5yrs as a starter where he has not succeeded while Teddy has less than 3yrs with a postseason trip and Pro Bowl to his name? Strictly because of arm talent?

Why would you be willing to do the same with Dalton when he regressed under Zac Taylor who was supposed to be bringing an innovative offense to Cinci? Along with his starting history as well.

What other starting QBs not on rookie deals or in their final seasons could you have secured for $14M?

[TheSpecialJuan]

1 hour ago, Call Me James said:

Teddy isn't doing well. Get over it. 

[KSpan]

6 minutes ago, Icege said:

Why would you be willing to give Jameis $21M (final year of his salary in TB) under the idea that he has upside when he has 5yrs as a starter where he has not succeeded while Teddy has less than 3yrs with a postseason trip and Pro Bowl to his name? Strictly because of arm talent?

Why would you be willing to do the same with Dalton when he regressed under Zac Taylor who was supposed to be bringing an innovative offense to Cinci? Along with his starting history as well.

What other starting QBs not on rookie deals or in their final seasons could you have secured for $14M?

Where did you get those amounts? Those guys signed for 1 and 3 MM each - there was no market for them. Even if you pay them triple what they're making as backups they're notably cheaper than Teddy.

That's the whole point though - how in the world did these guys think Teddy would be anything other than what he's ever been? Dalton or Jameis could have done exactly what Teddy's done or quite possibly more for less money. I'd absolutely plug Jameis into an offense for a bottom-tier team desperately needing upside, which Carolina was, and see what happens.

Teddy was never going to do anything and it immediatley made me question their talent evaluation priorities. They were fishing for talent and looking for a potential piece to build around but thinking it would be Teddy who at his best generates film that looks like Clausen in the bowl game, is a head-scratcher. Just save the money and plan down the road.

[BrianS]

Jameis didn't sign a backup contract.  He signed a THIRD STRING contract.  Not comparable at all.  No one in the league thought Jameis was a starter or a backup.

Andy Dalton wasn't available until April 30.  Long after we signed Teddy.

[MHS831]

Man, when someone puts thought and research into a post, appreciate it.  Even if I disagreed with the OP, and I do not, I appreciate the fact that he took time to lay this out and apply his thoughts--it is more interesting to me than some PR rep's press release--Excellent thread and I hope some of you borderline trolls--looking for that one liner that is going to get the other kids in the sandbox to laugh to build your fragile self esteems-- can respect this.

[Icege]

13 hours ago, KSpan said:

Where did you get those amounts? Those guys signed for 1 and 3 MM each - there was no market for them. Even if you pay them triple what they're making as backups they're notably cheaper than Teddy.

That's the whole point though - how in the world did these guys think Teddy would be anything other than what he's ever been? Dalton or Jameis could have done exactly what Teddy's done or quite possibly more for less money. I'd absolutely plug Jameis into an offense for a bottom-tier team desperately needing upside, which Carolina was, and see what happens.

Teddy was never going to do anything and it immediatley made me question their talent evaluation priorities. They were fishing for talent and looking for a potential piece to build around but thinking it would be Teddy who at his best generates film that looks like Clausen in the bowl game, is a head-scratcher. Just save the money and plan down the road.

I said where the amounts came from: the final year of Jameis' contract. Do you really think you could have signed those guys for $1M & $3M to start? This isn't New England. Those guys (Dalton & Winston) were brought in strictly to be back-ups which drastically changes the pay scale. Teddy was brought in as a stop-gap with an opportunity to keep the job. Dak had $31M tied up in him while Brees costs $23.65M (with another $22.65M guaranteed to him over this season and next).

If the proposal is to just tank the season and not compete, then there isn't a discussion for us to have (especially in this thread as you've mentioned). An NFL player's shelf life is incredibly short and forcing them to take abuse for a season without a chance to compete because folks wanna try and improve their odds ever so slightly at not screwing up a draft pick is unethical and disgusting.

1 hour ago, MHS831 said:

Man, when someone puts thought and research into a post, appreciate it.  Even if I disagreed with the OP, and I do not, I appreciate the fact that he took time to lay this out and apply his thoughts--it is more interesting to me than some PR rep's press release--Excellent thread and I hope some of you borderline trolls--looking for that one liner that is going to get the other kids in the sandbox to laugh to build your fragile self esteems-- can respect this.

If there's anything I've learned about the Huddle, it's that they don't care for discussion & debate as much as they care for trying to be one of the Mean Girls (hence the hiatus I've taken while we deal with some family medical concerns). The ones zeroing in on Teddy and ignoring the other 2 players + the point of this thread are telling on themselves. Thank you for being one of the reasons to still come back and discuss the team. <3

[KSpan]

7 hours ago, Icege said:

I said where the amounts came from: the final year of Jameis' contract. Do you really think you could have signed those guys for $1M & $3M to start? This isn't New England. Those guys (Dalton & Winston) were brought in strictly to be back-ups which drastically changes the pay scale. Teddy was brought in as a stop-gap with an opportunity to keep the job. Dak had $31M tied up in him while Brees costs $23.65M (with another $22.65M guaranteed to him over this season and next).

If the proposal is to just tank the season and not compete, then there isn't a discussion for us to have (especially in this thread as you've mentioned). An NFL player's shelf life is incredibly short and forcing them to take abuse for a season without a chance to compete because folks wanna try and improve their odds ever so slightly at not screwing up a draft pick is unethical and disgusting.

If there's anything I've learned about the Huddle, it's that they don't care for discussion & debate as much as they care for trying to be one of the Mean Girls (hence the hiatus I've taken while we deal with some family medical concerns). The ones zeroing in on Teddy and ignoring the other 2 players + the point of this thread are telling on themselves. Thank you for being one of the reasons to still come back and discuss the team. <3

I acknowledged that even paying 3x what they're making now would be cheaper than Teddy so no, I don't just think it's a guarantee they'd sign for that much to start. There's no way anyone would pay them the value of their last respective contracts, however, and I do think it's possible they'd be even cheaper than my high-end estimate though and that would be substantial savings vs Teddy.

With respect to the other 2 players I didn't discuss them because I have no issues with their contracts or cap hits and have never said I did - contrary to your snarky comment I understand both the cap reality and talent. I commented on Teddy because he's not worth any of the the money, as I discussed. Shaq is probably overpaid but he's at least shown flashes of being worth it, and he also wasn't hand-selected by the new staff as a centerpiece of the defense. CMC is arguably the top RB in the NFL. It's germaine to your point that while cap hit may not equal average salary said player can still be overvalued.

[musicman]

16 hours ago, Icege said:

When discussing players, especially those that have been chosen as scapegoats, fans like to cite the average salary as "proof" that a player is not as valuable as their contract suggests. This is done exclusively in bad faith. A deeper dive into the details of those castigated contracts more often than not refutes most, if not all of the argument(s). Currently, there are three players whose contracts have been bemoaned more than any other players expected to be on the next season's roster: Teddy Bridgewater, Shaq Thompson, and Christian McCaffrey. Let's take that deeper dive into these players' contracts and the complaints against them to see if they hold up.

To start, why not hop right into the hottest position in the sport: the QB. Some of the angrier fans like to seethe over Bridgewater's $21M average salary when his actual cap hit is $14M for 2020.  This is #18 amongst all current salary cap hits for NFL QBs (if he were making that $21M average, he would still only tie for 15th). Where does Bridgewater's $23M cap hit land next season among quarterbacks? 15th. What about in 2022 when Teddy is due to cost $26M? 13th. At no point during the contract is Teddy paid like a top 10 QB; is that not an accurate reflection of his value? "Not gonna lose games for the team, but also not going to put the team on his back..." sounds like a middle of the road QB with a middle of the road contract to me. Not only does the value of the contract properly reflect Bridgewater's value at the position, but it's also incredibly team friendly. With $20M in dead cap for next season and only $5M in dead cap for the following season, Teddy Bridgewater is your Panthers' QB for 2021. If the team can find a QB between now and 2022, then it'll cost the team only $5M to move on. Thus, the question remains: what exactly is the issue? There's a $7M difference between fact and fiction here, and those believing the fiction also believe that the difference prevented the Panthers from signing additional/higher quality free agents (which we can see is not the case). If I had to put my finger on it, I'd say that it comes down to two camps: Cam stans that are still butthurt and armchair GMs that neither understand the salary cap nor how to evaluate talent.

Moving on from Teddy. Another player that has consistently had his deal misrepresented is Shaq Thompson. Shaq was brought back this season with a rather lucrative deal after losing perennial Pro Bowler Luke Kuechly to retirement. During the season, chirps about his lack of appearance on the stat sheet seemed to ignore that he led the team in tackles while also missing the least. This could also explain why they believe he's getting paid an average salary of $16M (the actual average salary for Shaq's contract is $13.6M), because ignoring that he is getting paid $7.2M for 2020 (12th for ILBS, 27th for all LBs) and doesn't hit $16M until 2023 seems to go right in line with that way of thinking. Shaq's deal does jump up in value next season as it nearly doubles to $14.18M for 2021 (9th among LBs, 2nd for ILBs), then grows to $15.2M in 2022 (8th among LBs, 3rd for ILBs), and finally peaks at $16.36M in 2023 (6th among LBs, 3rd for ILBs). While those numbers and rankings can be concerning, let's look at the potential outs built into the contract to see if the team is tied to him. In 2021, Shaq can be cut to free up $10.98M in cap space at the cost of $3.2M in dead cap for the season and $6.4M for the following. In 2022, he can be released to free up $12M at the cost of $3.2M in dead cap for that season and the following. In the final year of his deal, Shaq can be cut to free up $13.16M at the cost of $3.2M in dead cap for just that season. Like Teddy, Shaq's contract is built in a manner that will allow the team to have leverage in order to restructure or simply move on from him when that price tag gets closer to the numbers that are triggering some fans. So, as was asked in regards to Teddy: what exactly is the issue here? Is it that the team did not retain James Bradberry? Between the $7M difference in Teddy's contract vs. believed average salary for 2020 and the $9M difference for Shaq's contract vs. believed average salary, there's $16M available. That more than covers the $10M cap hit that would have been required to retain Bradberry (who, btw, has a potential out in 2021 when the Giants can trade him to get out of the $17M for the following season). Shaq's contract was not why Bradberry wasn't resigned, therefore framing an argument that we took one over the other is bad faith at best, willfully misleading at worst.

Finally, we land on Christian McCaffrey. A lot of the frustration here stems from the analytical reasoning that RBs decline in value like a new car, but then why are the users pointing this out ignoring when they themselves were calling CMC a WR when he was drafted? With as often as the team uses CMC as a pass catcher, does that not increase his overall value in a fashion similar to Jimmy Graham wanting to be paid as a WR while playing TE? Is McCaffrey not a top 5 RB in the NFL? Where's the disconnect when it comes to his value? Is it because his contract has an average cap hit of $16M? I know, there have been a lot of numbers and some of y'all have already started falling asleep but I promise we're on the final stretch here! McCaffrey's cap hit for this season is ~$8M (5th behind David Johnson, Zeke, Saquon, and Kenyan Drake) before jumping to $12.5M in 2021 (3rd amongst RBs) and $12.9M in 2022 (4th). CMC will be the highest paid RB in the league at that $16M mark in 2023 + 2024, and then drop back down to 5th currently amongst deals running through 2025 when his salary drops to $12M again. I think that most of us can agree that paying CMC $12M, while a lot, does reflect his current value to the team as both an RB and a WR. What about when it jumps to that $16M mark that some posters clutch their pearls over? Does it matter that that same season the team can pay $4.3M in dead cap for two seasons to save $12M in 2023? What about 2024 when it will cost $4.2M in dead cap for that season alone while freeing $12M in cap space? Does the fact that that final year at $12.2M comes with no dead cap, meaning he can be cut free of charge? A top 5 RB that gets paid as a top 5 RB (even tho he also doubles as a WR) who when he does become the highest paid RB is at risk of being a cap casualty is a good thing. So, for the third and final time... what exactly is the issue? It wasn't like CMC replaced beloved players that some fans believed were better for the team than the alternatives like Teddy & Shaq did. It's ultimately because folks like to parrot the analytics regarding RBs without watching the play on the field. Understanding CMC's role and impact that he has on the offense + opposing defenses is clear as day to everyone but the ones that can't look passed the spreadsheet to understand why he's getting paid the way that he is (and realize that it isn't guaranteed by any means).

For those of y'all still reading, we can see just how far off some of these wild claims are when it comes to a players' contract value. All three of these large deals (as well as the deals for Weatherly + Paradis) are structured in a manner that allows the Panthers to cut bait should these players not be playing at the level expected. None of them are remotely close to the average salaries that are currently used to disparage them and the team. None of their contracts have hamstrung the team nor are they going to. Are all three of them world beaters? Absolutely not. Out of all three, CMC is the only one that can be labeled as elite while Shaq has done an admirable job leading a new defense filled with rookies. Any season(s) where they hit those average cap hits that folks are quaking with fear over all have outs that are very favourable to the team. So the next time somebody wants to mention a player's average cap hit as if that's what they're currently being paid, check out websites like Spotrac or OverTheCap. Does the deal have low cost outs for the team? When do they actually hit that average cap hit? You'll find that a lot of the time, the answers put those anxieties over contracts to rest.

Football differences aside, I hope that everyone has a safe and happy holiday season! I'll hopefully be in position to hang with y'all again in the final game thread of the season. <3

#KeepPounding

P.S. tEddY cAn't thrOw dEEp ~.^

Very reasonable and well written with facts. Everybody wants a deal on players but sometimes you gotta pay a little, even to get just solid play, not superstar level. 

[Jorgie]

Didn't read the thing but thank you, its been driving my crazy hearing people keep saying this.

I'm not particularly pro teddy, but I don't hate the guy either. I think as far as salary to performance, both parties are getting a fair deal(I mean look at how much Wentz is getting paid).

[Jorgie]

Also thank you for clarifying the shaq contract for everyone. Though its tough to reconcile with Bradberry's performance this season. I wouldnt be surprised if our second pick goes towards a CB

[MasterAwesome]

Weird how all the self-anointed "cap gurus" who have been the most vocal about all our contracts haven't rushed in here to refute you.  Good post.