Tankers ONLY: Predicting the top 12 picks by remaining schedule

[MHS831]

Projected Finish for Tankers:

I took a look at the winnable games left on the schedule for the bottom teams—(they are in bold below)—and I guessed how many of those each bottom-feeding team will win.  At the end of this exercise, the Panthers are projected to draft 10^th overall. and I included the strength of schedule on Nov 30. 

1.     NY Jets (0-16)  Strength of Schedule: .591 (prediction: 0 more wins)

2.     Jacksonville (1-15)  Strength of Schedule: .555  (prediction: 0 more wins)

3.     Cincinnati (3-12-1)  Strength of Schedule: .555 (prediction: 1 more win)

4.     Detroit Lions (4-12) Strength of Schedule: .506 (prediction: 0 more wins)

5.     Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1) Strength of Schedule: .526 (prediction: 1 more win)

6.     Dallas Cowboys (5-11) Strength of Schedule: .486 (prediction: 2 more wins)

7.     New York Giants (5-11) Strength of Schedule: .489 (prediction: 1 more win)

8.     Los Angeles Chargers (5-11) Strength of Schedule: .492  (prediction: 1 more win)

9.     Atlanta Falcons (5-11) Strength of Schedule: .533 (prediction: 1 more win)

10.  Carolina Panthers (5-11)  Strength of Schedule: .534  (prediction: 1 more win)

11.  Miami Dolphins (from Houston 5-11) Strength of Schedule (HOU): .549 (prediction: 1 more win)

12.  Denver Broncos (5-11)  Strength of Schedule: .565 (prediction: 1 more win)

13.  Washington Football Team (6-10) Strength of Schedule: .466 (prediction: 2 more wins)

Teams for Panther fans to cheer for (winnable games in parentheses):

Dallas (4), LA Chargers (3), Atlanta (1), Houston (2), Denver (2), Washington (3)

 

Current 2021 NFL Draft Order | Round One

Order as of Nov 30 at 11:35 PM ET.

1. New York Jets (0-11)

Remaining Games: LV, @SEA, @LAR, CLE, @NE  (0-16)

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10)

Strength of Schedule: .555
Remaining Games: @MIN, TEN, @BAL, CHI, @IND (1-15)

3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1)

Strength of Schedule: .538
Remaining Games: @MIA, DAL, PIT, @HOU, BAL  (3-12-1)

4. Dallas Cowboys (3-8)

Strength of Schedule: .486
Remaining Games: @BAL, @CIN, SF, PHI, @NYG  (5-11)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (3-8)

Strength of Schedule: .492
Remaining Games: NE, ATL, @LV, DEN, @KC  (5-11)

6. Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1)

Strength of Schedule: .526
Remaining Games: @GB, NO, @ARI, @DAL, WSH (4-11-1)

7. New York Giants (4-7)

Strength of Schedule: .489[GN1] 
Remaining Games: @SEA, ARI, CLE, @BAL, DAL (5-11)

 

8. Carolina Panthers (4-8)

Strength of Schedule: .534
Remaining Games: DEN, @GB, @WSH, NO (5-11)

9. Washington Football Team (4-7)

Strength of Schedule: .466
Remaining Games: @PIT, @SF, SEA, CAR, @PHI  (6-10)

10. Detroit Lions (4-7)

Strength of Schedule: .506
Remaining Games: @CHI, GB, @TEN, TB, MIN  (4-12)

11. Atlanta Falcons (4-7)

Strength of Schedule: .533
Remaining Games: NO, @LAC, TB, @KC, @TB (5-11)

12. Miami Dolphins (from Houston 4-7)

Strength of Schedule (HOU): .549
Remaining Games (HOU): IND, @CHI, @IND, CIN, TEN  (6-10)

13. Denver Broncos (4-7)

Strength of Schedule: .565
Remaining Games: @KC, @CAR, BUF, @LAC, LV  (5-11)

14. Chicago Bears (5-6)

Strength of Schedule: .500
Remaining Games: DET, HOU, @MIN, @JAC, GB (7-9)

15. Minnesota Vikings (5-6)

Strength of Schedule: .500
Remaining Games: JAC, @TB, CHI, @NO, @DET  (8-8)

16. New England Patriots (5-6)

Strength of Schedule: .509
Remaining Games: @LAC, @LAR, @MIA, BUF, NYJ  (7-9)

17. San Francisco 49ers (5-6)

Strength of Schedule: .531
Remaining Games: BUF, WSH, @DAL, @ARI, SEA (7-9)

---

 [GN1]

[t96]

Falcons have been trending up lately and just smoked the Raiders, who are actually a solid team. I'd say they win 2-3 more games. One against TB, the Chargers game and maybe the Aints game.

[MHS831]

2 minutes ago, t96 said:

Falcons have been trending up lately and just smoked the Raiders, who are actually a solid team. I'd say they win 2-3 more games. One against TB, the Chargers game and maybe the Aints game.

They have a tough schedule down the stretch, but they finished strong last year.  I was conservative in my picks, fwiw.  I had the same thoughts though.

[Dunn]

Of all the potential teams in front of us, At least 5 could stand a new QB.  

NY Jets/Jacksonville/Giants/Denver/Washington looks like locks.

Cowboys move on from Dak? Eagles move on from Wentz and either draft another or go with Hurts? Detroit start rebuild and drop Stafford?  So many need QBs right now.  

[stbugs]

17 minutes ago, Dunn said:

Of all the potential teams in front of us, At least 5 could stand a new QB.  

NY Jets/Jacksonville/Giants/Denver/Washington looks like locks.

Cowboys move on from Dak? Eagles move on from Wentz and either draft another or go with Hurts? Detroit start rebuild and drop Stafford?  So many need QBs right now.  

Detroit could easily dump Stafford after this or next year so it’s a possibility. The entire NFC East could as well. We need to go 4-12.

[ncsfinest21]

Of all those teams, we are the team that team that is the best. I can see us winning 2 and going 6-10. We will probably get a LB and no a QB til next year. or the year after. Rhule likes Teddy. I see us maybe getting Parsons if he is there or a OT. (excluding Miami who will be good next year and maybe SF just because they are injury plagued)

[TLGPanthersFan]

I have been watching Panthers since 1998 and never missed a season. But if we don’t get a QB this offseason I may just skip the 2021 season. I have no investment and no real attachment to any players. Sure we may make the playoffs next year but who in their right mind thinks we are gonna be nothing but one and done with TB. Now with a future starter behind TB I could kind get off his back. Because I would now know he won’t be the starter forever. 
We really need a QB. 

[TLGPanthersFan]

2 minutes ago, ncsfinest21 said:

Of all those teams, we are the team that team that is the best. I can see us winning 2 and going 6-10. We will probably get a LB and no a QB til next year. or the year after. Rhule likes Teddy. I see us maybe getting Parsons if he is there or a OT. (excluding Miami who will be good next year and maybe SF just because they are injury plagued)

So we are gonna have to trade up for the QB. Because that is e only way we are getting a franchise caliber QB. Also we have no ideas if the QB crop will be any good next draft or the next. If we don’t draft a QB this draft we are likely stuck with Bathwater. If Rhule thinks TB is a franchise QB I am questioning his vision and wondering if he needs glasses. 
QB first then the rest of the team. 

[Leeroy Jenkins Ph.D.]

I was about to create a post, but I will just hi-jack this one.  Here is who to root for this weekend. 

The Carolina Panthers (SOS = .534) currently hold the 7^th pick in the draft. We are currently one of the seven teams that have 4 wins and are ahead of that pack simply because we have one more loss than the rest. This weekend gives 6 other teams a chance to catch us in loss totals and seriously bump us down the draft board.  The following are games that will have a large impact on our draft order. We could finish the weekend anywhere between 6 and 11 following this weekend.

 

1)      Washington @ Steelers: If Washington loses this game they move ahead of the Panthers in the draft order, as they would have a tied record and lower SOS (.466).

2)      Lions @ Bears: If the Lions lose this game they move ahead of the Panthers in the draft order, as they would have a tied record and lower SOS (.506)

3)      Saints @ Falcons: If the Falcons lose this game they move ahead of the Panthers in the draft order as they would have a tied record and lower SOS (.533)

4)      Giants @ Seahawks: if the Giants lose this game and lose the lead in the NFC East, they move ahead of the Panthers in draft order as they would have a tied record and lower SOS (.489)

5)      Eagles @ Packers: If the Eagles win this game, they drop behind Carolina in the draft order, either due to record (4-7-1) or by taking back first place in the NFC East.

6)      Colts @ Texans: If the Texans lose this game, they have a tied record with the Panthers, but the Panthers would remain ahead given the Texans have a higher SOS (.549)

7)      Broncos @ Chiefs: If the Broncos lose this game, they have a tied record with the Panthers, but the Panthers would remain ahead given the Broncos have a higher SOS (.565)

8)      Patriots @ Chargers: If the Chargers win this game, they have a tied record with the Panthers, however, they maintain their lead in the draft order given there lower SOS (.492)

9)      Cowboys @ Ravens: If the Cowboys win this game, they have a tied record with the Panthers, however, they maintain their lead in the draft order given there lower SOS (.486)

[ncsfinest21]

9 minutes ago, TLGPanthersFan said:

So we are gonna have to trade up for the QB. Because that is e only way we are getting a franchise caliber QB. Also we have no ideas if the QB crop will be any good next draft or the next. If we don’t draft a QB this draft we are likely stuck with Bathwater. If Rhule thinks TB is a franchise QB I am questioning his vision and wondering if he needs glasses. 
QB first then the rest of the team. 

I feel you, but the fact that we aren't going to tank and play every game as if we are trying to make the playoffs, we will have to give up alot to get a QB and unless we give up multiple picks and maybe next years first is not going to work.

[Captain Morgan]

57 minutes ago, Dunn said:

Of all the potential teams in front of us, At least 5 could stand a new QB.  

NY Jets/Jacksonville/Giants/Denver/Washington looks like locks.

Cowboys move on from Dak? Eagles move on from Wentz and either draft another or go with Hurts? Detroit start rebuild and drop Stafford?  So many need QBs right now.  

 

I was starting to feel some hope, then I read your post.

[MHS831]

30 minutes ago, ncsfinest21 said:

Of all those teams, we are the team that team that is the best. I can see us winning 2 and going 6-10. We will probably get a LB and no a QB til next year. or the year after. Rhule likes Teddy. I see us maybe getting Parsons if he is there or a OT. (excluding Miami who will be good next year and maybe SF just because they are injury plagued)

We could-I tried to guess who would be favored--we could just as easily lose out.

[pantherj]

Saints will start their second string against us. That's 1 win. Denver is horrendous, so 50/50. Washington 50/50. I say we win 2 more games. That means the best QBs will be snapped up before we pick. 

[ncsfinest21]

I see us beating Denver and maybe Washington. But thats about it.