Is Teddy a Checkdown QB?

[MechaZain]

Bridgewater was a solid plan. This team was already compensating for a broken deep ball. Brady's a better play caller than Shula and he felt more comfortable going at it with his Checkdown King than with a refurbished Cam. And they probably felt that with CMC we were too good to have a serious shot at a top QB anytime soon. At the end of the day they just overestimated Teddy and I believe underestimated what Cam could have accomplished in this system. I don't fault them much for that. It'll be a problem if they let it go on longer than necessary. 

 

[kungfoodude]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

See, this is another of those areas where stats fail to tell the story.

Watching the games, you can see Bridgewater getting rid of the ball a fraction of a second before he's about to get pasted. Stats will tell you that the line did a good job of protecting him, but it's not true.

Hell, if you went by stats, you might think Greg Little was a good tackle. In fact, there were people using that exact argument for him earlier in the year.

There is a stat for that called QB Pressures. According to PFF we are tied for 7th in least pressures allowed in the NFL. We are ranked 17th in FO's Adjusted Sack Rate, are 22nd in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate(the percentage of linemen that hold their blocks for at least 2.5 seconds), and in NFL's Next Gen Stats measure of Average Separation from QB(4.52 yds league average) we have allowed just 19 pass rushers to have an average below that. In the last 5 games, that number is just 3. 

So, most measures are telling you that he is getting the time. Your eyes are telling you that he is getting the time, you just don't want to believe your eyes because it doesn't fit the narrative you want to believe. 

[Mr. Scot]

3 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

There is a stat for that called QB Pressures. According to PFF we are tied for 7th in least pressures allowed in the NFL. We are ranked 17th in FO's Adjusted Sack Rate, are 22nd in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate(the percentage of linemen that hold their blocks for at least 2.5 seconds), and in NFL's Next Gen Stats measure of Average Separation from QB(4.52 yds league average) we have allowed just 19 pass rushers to have an average below that. In the last 5 games, that number is just 3. 

So, most measures are telling you that he is getting the time. Your eyes are telling you that he is getting the time, you just don't want to believe your eyes because it doesn't fit the narrative you want to believe. 

PFF will tell you a lot of things. It's a reason why they regularly get mocked on here.

[kungfoodude]

Just now, Mr. Scot said:

PFF will tell you a lot of things. It's a reason why they regularly get mocked on here.

And yet you ignored all those other measures too. Like I said, you just simply don't want to believe what you don't want to believe. 

That isn't something any statistic, film or fact can fix.

[Mr. Scot]

Just now, kungfoodude said:

And yet you ignored all those other measures too. Like I said, you just simply don't want to believe what you don't want to believe. 

That isn't something any statistic, film or fact can fix.

Stats would tell you Matt Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks in football. The eye test says different.

I believe what I see.

[TLGPanthersFan]

1 hour ago, 1of10Charnatives said:

Teddy’s 3 year contract argues strongly against this having been their plan at the time. You don’t plan to pay a guy 21 mil to start one year, another 21 mil to mentor a rookie his 2nd year, and 21 mil more in dead cap hit when you cut him or pay 21 mil for a backup qb.

I agree that they might have considered Teddy the best option at the time, but they were clearly not planning to draft his replacement this year.

That isn’t entirely accurate. He is getting 33 million guaranteed, what a waste of money. Which willbe payed over the next 2 season. The 3rd season has no guaranteed money or very little. We can cut him with little to no financial impact.  He needs to be gone by the 2nd year. 

[kungfoodude]

20 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

Stats would tell you Matt Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks in football. The eye test says different.

I believe what I see.

Sure, show me those stats. You made that claim, back it up.

[Mr. Scot]

31 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

Sure, show me those stats. You made that claim, back it up.

That's actually from a debate I had a few years ago where people were telling me that Cam Newton wasn't a very good quarterback based on his having inferior stats.

(you'd have been on the wrong side of that argument)

But if you do want to go by stats, I can take a look at NFL.com and tell you which quarterbacks Bridgewater has a better rating than.

Would you accept those ratings, or are you not interested in anything which doesn't fit the narrative you want to believe?

[kungfoodude]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Scot said:

That's actually from a debate I had a few years ago where people were telling me that Cam Newton wasn't a very good quarterback based on his having inferior stats.

(you'd have been on the wrong side of that argument)

But if you do want to go by stats, I can take a look at NFL.com and tell you which quarterbacks Bridgewater has a better rating than.

Would you accept those ratings, or are you not interested in anything which doesn't fit the narrative you want to believe?

You made the claim that Matthew Stafford was one of the best QB's in football. I would like to see the statistical argument for that. 

That literally has nothing to do with Teddy Bridgewater but since I went through all the effort to actually put forth fact based arguments for why Teddy isn't suffering from fatigue nor was pressured so much he can't perform well, I'd like to see you put for the same effort into making a real fact based argument for the tangent that you came up with as a distractor from the subject at hand.

[Mr. Scot]

2 minutes ago, kungfoodude said:

You made the claim that Matthew Stafford was one of the best QB's in football. I would like to see the statistical argument for that. 

That literally has nothing to do with Teddy Bridgewater but since I went through all the effort to actually put forth fact based arguments for why Teddy isn't suffering from fatigue nor was pressured so much he can't perform well, I'd like to see you put for the same effort into making a real fact based argument for the tangent that you came up with as a distractor from the subject at hand.

It isn't a distraction. It's an illustration of how flawed stats are.

People used to argue that Newton's stats (QBR usually) showed he wasn't a great passer. I checked NFL.com stats at the time and found Stafford at the top. The question I asked was who you'd rather have between Stafford and Newton.

Should I take from your stat based approach that you'd have agreed with the Newton critics?

[Eazy-E]

3 hours ago, Mr. Scot said:

The one big enigma is DJ Moore. He's good, but he and Bridgewater can't seem to get on the same page.

 

They're on the same page. Teddy just doesn't have the arm talent to get him the ball consistently.

Crazy how the one game Teddy doesn't start, DJ has his highest receiving yards game of the season.

[kungfoodude]

1 hour ago, Mr. Scot said:

It isn't a distraction. It's an illustration of how flawed stats are.

People used to argue that Newton's stats (QBR usually) showed he wasn't a great passer. I checked NFL.com stats at the time and found Stafford at the top. The question I asked was who you'd rather have between Stafford and Newton.

Should I take from your stat based approach that you'd have agreed with the Newton critics?

You are literally drawing from some random moment in time a memory without any context of when it was. How in the world could I possibly respond logically to that?

[1of10Charnatives]

3 hours ago, TLGPanthersFan said:

That isn’t entirely accurate. He is getting 33 million guaranteed, what a waste of money. Which willbe payed over the next 2 season. The 3rd season has no guaranteed money or very little. We can cut him with little to no financial impact.  He needs to be gone by the 2nd year. 

You are correct. I don't normally oversimplify things in a way that changes them meaningfully but in that post for some reason I forgot to consider guaranteed vs unguaranteed money and just divided by 3.  This means the contract is much less problematic than I was thinking. Thanks for setting me straight on that.